Bloomberg has predicted that Volkwagen Group will outsell Tesla for battery electric vehicles in 2024 and 2025. This is utterly ridiculous.
They project Tesla will cap out at 2.3-2.5 million per year car sales. Tesla will have a runrate of 800k cars in China annualized with no shutdowns and 600k in Fremont. They will get 500k per year out of Berlin and 500kk out of Austin. This is already 2.4 million cars. Tesla China is getting expanded to 2 million cars per year. Berlin and Austin are getting expanded. Bloomberg is saying that Tesla China expansion will not happen in 2023.
Tesla is targeting 50%+ annual growth.
930k in 2021
1.5M in 2022
2.25M in 2023
3.4M in 2024
5.1M in 2025
Tesla can get to 5.1M in 2025 with
800k Fremont, 2M China, 1.3M Austin, 1M Berlin
VW has minimal growth in 2022 and will not be able to use iron LFP batteries. Iron LFP battery EVs will be 2 out of every 3 EVs in 2025.
Volkswagen will not top 1 million unit sales in 2024. BYD and other China car makers are more competitive. Volkswagen would need to buy its way into a joint venture in China or shift existing joint ventures into cheap China EVs to pad its numbers.
There could be 10-13 million cheap China EVs in 2025. Carmakers can try to dominate in this sub-$8k and sub-$20k markets. There are a lot of China domestic makers.
Tesla Berlin ramp means Tesla Europe customers will avoid $15000 in import duties and shipping costs. Tesla already has the top BEV sales in Europe. VW and Stellantis are only ahead when PHEV are included.
Tesla will grab 40% share in 2023 in Europe EVs up from 15% today.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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