How Can We Usefully Measure Technology Progress? Can we have a scale that is immune to the Technology Singularity?
Can we compare humanity on a common scale with animals and aliens?
It is possible and I think a new approach is far more useful than the Kardashev scale or other past approaches.
Amount of energy used
Type 1- Solar energy reaching a planet (2×10^17 watts)
Type 2- Energy of our Sun (4×10^26 watts)
Type 3 – Energy of our Galaxy (4×10^37 watts)
Doublings and Doubling times are the keys to meaningful and useful long-run development measurement.
33 Doublings in population from the first person to today.
Normal economic doubling for the past 100 years and the expected levels to 2100.
Doubling every 25 years for last 100 years
WW2 had 15 times less steel and oil. Four doublings of key materials used globally.
World if PPP doubling every 25 years til 2100
$220 trillion (2011 dollars) in 2045. [$24k per person]
$440 trillion (2011 dollars) in 2070
$880 trillion (2011 dollars) in 2095.
Meaningful Technology Acceleration is Extra doublings.
Acceleration adds more doublings
Level 1 Extra double 2020-2045 : $440 trillion PPP GDP by 2045 [$50k per person]
Level 2 Extra 2045-2070: $1760 trillion PPP GDP by 2070 [$176k per person]
Level 3 Extra by 2095 $7040 trillion by 2095 [$700k per person]
6% per year world GDP growth instead of 3% per year for 25 years
There are 16 doublings to achieve a Type 1 Civilization.
If Teslabots become equivalent to a single person productivity.
Then at Kardashev Type One the average person should have the wealth of Elon Musk in 2030.
Kardashev Type 1 Abundance
Everyone has 100k Teslabots
5 Gigafactories for everyone
50,000 X per person energy at Kardashev 1 of human population is about the same as today. If ten times as many people then 5000x per person energy and other abundance
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.