Ukraine Needs to Take Kherson by end of October

If Ukraine can recapture Kherson city up to the Dnipro river then they will be able to shutoff water used for irrigation and for the population and Russian troops in Crimea. Ukraine was able to cut off the water to the North Crimean Canal from spring 2014 to the start of the 2022 Russian offensive.

Ukraine has damaged the Antonivsky bridge which is the main bridge for Russia to supply forces north of the Dnipro river. Only small trucks can go over the bridge now.

Ukraine is pushing on four breakthrough points and want to get some key roads near the Dnipro river. The goal is to threaten to encircle or actually encircle Russian forces. This would force Russian forces to run on foot from northern Kherson and leave equipment behind.

Taking back Northern Kherson would let Ukraine cut off the water would put more stress on Russians to bring supplies to forces in Crimea. Russia would need to bring in water.

It would also get Ukraine close enough to target the Kerch Strait bridge. This is a rail and road bridge that is critical for Russia to bring supplies and troops to Crimea.

The Ukraine military operation needs to reach its goals by the end of October. It will get more difficult to make advances when winter weather complicates advances in late October.

SOURCES- Sky News, Institute for the Study of War
Written by Brian Wang,

17 thoughts on “Ukraine Needs to Take Kherson by end of October”

  1. I want the Ukrainian people to live freely and prosperously.

    ISW is part military analysis, and mostly war propaganda spin.

    The Russians have, in those immortal words, not yet begun to fight. They have been on a slow roll, hoping the Europeans would change their minds about sanctions and supporting the war as winter sets in, which is very possible.

    You are correct that the Ukrainians will need to capture Kherson, but before the wet autumn weather kicks in, which could be sooner than the end of October.

    – The Russians have only used a fraction of their airforce. Yes, they occasionally launch a cruise missile from the Caspian, it’s part operational and part training and part practice. My best guess is that they do not think the AFU soldiers are worth losing a plane.
    – The Russians have not targeted civilian infrastructure, besides what is AFU occupied and within artillery range. They must want the loud mouthed braggert in Kiev to keep spewing or they would have killed him long ago. The first thing the US did in the first Gulf War was target power stations, grids, water purifying plants, communication nodes, sanitation plants. Our country, along with UK, kept at it for 12 years, and slowly depleted the AA of Iraq before Gulf War 2. The Russians have done nothing on that scale.
    – I believe most of the UKR fuel comes from Russia, by way of Belarus. A large portion of UKR gas comes from Russia, by way of EU pipelines, with EU selling to UKR. Those taps have been slowly been closing. Could have been day 1.
    – 50% UKR electricity came from nuclear, and the majority of that Zaporozhye. After 6 months, they have shut down the power to UKR. Could have been week 2 or 3.
    – If they wanted to decimate ALL the Ukrainians east of the Dneiper all they had to do was blow up those bridges and no food, no fuel, no ammo, NOTHING. It could be a cake walk to the Dneiper river.
    – They have tactical nukes in reserve. Major attacks on Crimea will be considered attacks on Russia, by the Russians. There are CNN reports that state the US military thinks Russia is bluffing. We sure do have retard leadership.
    – If, and when, the Russians want to win this war militarily, they will and there is NOTHING (short of nuclear war) anybody, including our country the US, could do to stop it.
    – US think tank estimated 15-18,000 KIA Russians (probably high). The literally acting prezident admitted 200-300 a day KIA Ukrainians (probably low).
    – This war is on their time table, and they are building the military, supply, economics, political, energy pressures to culminate this winter.
    – Kiev was a feint to pull troops from their primary objectives, the source of the Crimean water canal, ZNPP and control of the Black Sea coast. Donbass has been an 8 year conflict, resolves when it resolves. With those goals almost met, and being populated by significant ethnic Russians, why would they proceed further to where it is almost 100% Ukrainian, or even worse, Polish ethnicities?
    – Not only is Ukraine being de-militarized, so are NATO equipment reserves. Parts of the world are resting easier.
    – The only way to make Russia hurt economically is through a world wide recession tanking energy demand, and prices.
    – OPEC+ is making bank. When the worldwide recession hits this October(?) OPEC+ will cut back supply to keep prices moderate.

    – And the # 1 FACT is that the biggest winner of this war is CHINA. Cheap energy for them, Russia almost fully reliant; enemies self harming their finances, secure energy supplies and industries. With Bidens MIC, China connections, and previous nepotistic kleptocracy Ukraine connections, makes one wonder where Biden’s real allegiance lies.

    It is so obvious they have other more important goals in mind besides winning this war.

    Many smarter than me people on this MB, but their ideology prevents them from seeing clearly.

  2. It’s sad that the Russian trolls have found their way here as well. I wonder how long Putin can afford to pay ?

  3. Brian you have great tech info and I view your site and YT videos often. But please stick to what you know. Ukraine & the West (yes its Russia vs NATO) are being defeated militarily and economically. The Kherson ‘offensive’ is little more than feel good propaganda. The war will drag on for a long time until Ukraine runs out of young men to slaughter and is little more than a rump state.

    • Yes the war will drag on. Russia has substantial casualties. Both Russia and Ukraine are losing people. It is similar to the Iran-Iraq war where 1 million died.

      • Brian. Don’t listen to any of the Putin’s trolls. Ukraine will win and take back its territory. Russian fascists have already expended most of its people and equipmen arsenal. Russian military equipment is grossly inferior. Ukranian spirit is vastly superior… It takes hundreds Russian shells to achieve what a single Excalibur shell or a GMLRS can.

  4. The Russians left a gap for the Ukrainians to attack in.
    The same trick they used a month or two ago in other parts of the front.
    When the Ukrainian forces attacked they just let them in and after they closed the way to retreat. Then they mauled the Ukrainians with artillery from afar.

    The problem with Ukraine is Western Europe is bankrolling them and the money will dry out by the end of Fall.

    The current political climate is very hot in W.E.
    In Italy we risk the closure, with the current gas prices, of 20% (at least) of the industry.
    People will need to choose between filling the tank of the car, heating the house or filling the belly of their few children.

    Many took the vax to keep their jobs, if they lose their job it will not be pretty.

  5. Wanting to take it by October and needing to are different things. The war will be still going on by next spring either way.

    On a side note, people online often take as if the war will completely go into an involuntary ceasefire the moment the snow flies and won’t recommence until the last of the mud is dry in late spring. It will change during these months, you wont see major territorial gains and losses but fighting will still go on. Russians aren’t getting a holiday for rest and recreation combined with rearmament and restoration.

  6. Sources says that the Ukraine was able to take on the Russian first line of defence but have failed to take on the much more fortified second line. By all accounts this looks like a stalled war.

  7. The offensive already failed. The Russians have retaken most of the territory the Ukrainians claimed. The Ukrainians also took heavy casualties as this region is open steppe and there are few heavily forested areas to conceal your presence. They’re getting murdered by artillery.

    In particular the 128th Mountain Assault Brigade from Transcarpathia was devastated. The governor of the province has declared a day of mourning for their deaths.

    • It is hardly surprising, given all that was known even a month ago.

      You cannot go on offensive when the enemy has sure and artillery superiority. Even if you send waves of cannon fodder

      Well actually I was surprised a bit that the Ukrainian forces managed to take a few villages. And a bigger surprise is that all the man power wasted on the attack was used so inefficiently. The very same forces child have fortified themselves. Russkies would have to spend years to break well prepared and well manned defence lines

      • Its to early for that assessment. The Russian supply lines are heavily stressed into Kerson they are quickly burning their stocks on the west bank under the pressure. The questions that remain is can Ukraine hold the level of pressure long enough to reach breaking point of the Russian resupply limits. If so the Russian starved of fuel to maneuver and ordinance will cascade collapse. If the Ukraine can’t keep the pressure above the Russian resupply ability the front will stagnate again. This battle is a battle of resources.

        So far from what I see it looks like the Ukraine has enough resources and the Russians will not be able to provide the needed supply chain levels. I predict a week or two of grinding then Russia supply will become critical. Before that critical point Russia will either have to tactically withdraw or be cut up isolated and defeated in detail on the west bank if they wait to long.

        • Since we are very big fans of predictions u will mark it down. So let’s make your predictions observable.
          A)After 2 to 4 weeks the Russkies withdraw from the sweetest bank of the river
          Or in 2 months they get destroyed and Ukraine recaptures the same area anyway.

          • P.s. the predictions are not mine. I just make them testable.

            I , on the other hand, know if existence of barges, ferries, and floating bridges.

            • Those ferries habe highly limited capacity and will get HIMARSed from time to time. Can they fill the bucket faster than it empties? Doubtful.

              • First of all, excuse my spelling. Let’s hope it is rather bad autocorrect than an atypical stroke.

                Even a hundred years ago, armies where using smokescreens. Coupled with a moving target, decoys and fake radar deflectors , hitting those targets is not so easy. In fact, most likely will be hitting a civilian target with an oblivious propaganda effect.

                And that’s not even mentioning how many functioning Himars launchers are there remaining. Yes there were decoys and for sure Russians have overestimated the number of destroyed HIMARS vehicles but with air superiority, satellites and flying drones, once a launcher fires it is highly likely to be detected and tracked.

                If there’s a massive attack of ten or at least 5 to one they have some chance. But that would require 100 K troops to retake west chersin alone.

                We will see

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