China Has 91 Military Planes and 12 Ships in Military Exercise Simulating Attack on Taiwan

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China’s PLA’s Eastern Theater Command announced the end of a large military exercise today. Taiwan’s R.O.C. Armed Forces will continue to keep a close watch on PLA’s movements 24/7 and act accordingly.

On Monday, China’s Navy had 11 ships and 70 PLA aircraft near Taiwan and about 35 of the planes crossed the median line (halfway point) of the Taiwan Strait and entered Taiwan’s self-declared Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ). Yesterday, eight warships and 71 planes were detected near Taiwan, 45 of which entered the ADIZ, the island’s Ministry of Defense said.

Both China and Taiwan have ships and planes in the area.

Nextbigfuture Military Analysis of Taiwan VS China

Taiwan is an island with mostly mountains. Taiwan’s bases and defenses are built into the Mountains. Large conventional missiles and bombs cannot penetrate more about 3 meters.

Bombers carrying 2000-pound or heavier bombs will be slower moving and will need to have air defenses mostly destroyed to be deployed. Mountains are hard rock. This means they would be on the low end of these crater sizes for hitting dirt or rock targets. Usually the diameter of a crater is about 5 to 7 times more than the depth. A 12-meter-wide crater hitting rock would be about 2 meters deep.

The PL12 and PL7 missiles in China’s fighter planes are for shooting down other planes and bombers. China would need to use heavy bombs in their H-6 and other bombers. China’s bombs are mainly up to 1000 lbs and some 2000 lb bombs with freefall, laser or GPS guidance.

China’s H-6K bomber can carry one 30 feet long, weighs 21,600 pounds large bomb similar to the US MOAB. It would be a slow-moving bomber trying to drop one big bomb at a time.

Any air campaign to degrade Taiwan’s defenses would take weeks. The world stock markets would crash on the first day of true hostilities of actual fighting or blockade. Hundreds of missiles and bombs would explode against the dirt and rock and do NOTHING to the planes and missiles in the caves.

27 thoughts on “China Has 91 Military Planes and 12 Ships in Military Exercise Simulating Attack on Taiwan”

  1. https://breakingdefense.com/2023/03/in-ukraine-fight-integrated-air-defense-has-made-many-aircraft-worthless-us-air-force-general/?amp=1

    Robust Ukrainian and Russian air defenses have rendered both sides’ aircraft, particularly those used for close air support missions, largely “worthless” in the war between the two countries, according to a top American Air Force general.

    About 60 Ukrainian aircraft and 70 Russian aircraft have been downed in the year since Russia launched its invasion, according to commander of US Air Forces in Europe and Africa Gen. James Hecker, a feat accomplished by the two countries’ highly capable air defense systems that have left much of the battlefield airspace off limits.

    Russia has lost 70 planes. Ukraine has lost 60. Ukraine still has 60.

    Are you predicting some major shift in the war? What is it? What are your predictions?

  2. The US and NATO are supplying weapons to Ukraine and calibrating to not give them really good gear so that Ukraine could strike into Russia. US is not using its 3000 jets. They have only just delivered some combat tanks. It is a calibrated proxy war. 80% of China’s modern jets are Russian bought or copies of Russian planes with inferrior China made engines.

  3. China is like a high school bully showing its muscles and try to pick on someone. In practical sense they can’t do a lot. Taiwanese can pick allies as they please. They have free will, even if China doesn’t like that. GPD per capita (PPP) is pretty high in Taiwan and living standard is better than in China. If people can choose with free elections they usually don’t decide for communist dictatorship with way less human rights and to be treated as cattle. I can understand that Taiwanese prefer democracy.

  4. Taiwan is more useful to Xi as something to rally the people against, than to actually own, especially since it wouldn’t be much of a prize for him, even if it fell.

    Last I heard, China had 8 troop carriers capable of landing troops on the somewhat limited beaches in Taiwan. They would take many hours to cross from the mainland, and they would make that crossing in the shade of all the missiles that would be falling on them. These aren’t Spartans, either.

    Meanwhile, assuming anything actually made it to those beaches, the Taiwanese know where those beaches are and have been preparing for many decades. That just doesn’t bode well for ever getting off of those beaches once landed.

    So what’s that leave? Aerial bombardment and blockade? Anyone want to bet that the Three Gorges Dam is immune to attack? It’s made of substandard concrete (corrupt builders) and sitting on a fault line where it is applying huge pressure. That river runs all the way to Shanghai and 50% of China’s industry is along it, with a sizable percentage of their best workers, too.

    Actually pulling the trigger on Taiwan would be a stupid move but, then again, Xi hasn’t really impressed anyone with his intellect.

  5. China had no problem with Taiwan as long as the US and Taiwanese stuck to the 1972 agreement.

    But for some crazy reason the US needs to insult the Chinese by sending high-level politicians and military people to meet Taiwan’s leaders.

    Then the psychopaths who run the US get upset when China shows its displeasure.

  6. You’re talking about Prigozin’s private SS along with the Russian Army slaughtering tens of thousands of their own troops over months in failed attempts to take a strategically unimportant destroyed city from the Ukrainian army?

    • The source you site on russian casualties says the real death toll is much higher. Besides, the number of soldiers missing in action or captured is not known. The site is using the death count using known names of dead.

      According to CSIS estimates, there have been approximately 60,000 to 70,000 Russian combat fatalities in Ukraine between February 2022 and February 2023. These estimates include regular Russian soldiers from the Russian armed forces, Rosgvardiya, Federal Security Service, and Federal Guard Service; fighters from pro-Russian militias, such as the Donetsk People’s Militia and Luhansk People’s Militia; and contractors from such private military companies as the Wagner Group. Overall, Russia has suffered roughly 200,000 to 250,000 total casualties—personnel wounded, killed, and missing—during the first year of the war. These casualty estimates also include regular Russian soldiers, militia fighters, and private contractors from the Wagner Group.
      https://www.csis.org/analysis/ukrainian-innovation-war-attrition

      US Intel estimate 43,000 — is a slightly lower figure than what other officials and experts have estimated in recent weeks. But 220k-235k wounded and/or killed. usually 1 in 3 are killed.

      Britain’s defense ministry said in a February intelligence update that between 40,000 and 60,000 Russian-linked forces — which includes Moscow’s regular military and mercenaries from the Wagner Group paramilitary organization — have likely been killed.

      the number of Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine during the first year of the war was likely greater than the entire number of Russian soldiers killed in every war Russia has fought since World War II combined. The number of Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine in the first year was roughly two to five times greater than the number of Russian soldiers killed in Chechnya over nearly a decade a half.

      • Stating your opinion more aggressively and more rudely does not make it more true. Your source says the actual number is far higher. Your own source says it is wrong and is a low estimate. I believe your source source when they say it is an underestimate. Do you read your own source. Btw. If you or any commenter us excessively rude then I will reject those comments. Some commentators complain about censorship. This is not some kind of free speech zone. Commenters are guests on my site. I welcome and appreciate good guests. Misbehaving guests get booted.

    • The leaked documents indicate that Ukraine has half the KIA as Russia KIA. Just because the documents are leaked does not make them more accurate. Also, can separating the Wagner and local militia deaths.

  7. China will engage in operations of this sort occasionally, until Taiwan gets used to them. Then one day one of these “exercises” will, without warning, suddenly turn out to be the real thing.

    But it will take some critical response time to realize that’s happening, which is the point of the ‘exercises’.

    • Much as with Ukraine, this is simply not possible. The depth of preparations necessary to a real invasion could not be disguised and would be obvious at least months in advance. China could like Russia with Ukraine offer public lies that it is just planning exercises when it was making these preparations but they would be called out and Taiwan or its Allies could not be deceived.

  8. The distance to mainland China is just too big. Even if they shower Taiwan with missiles to overpower defense installations and anti aircraft systems, even then 100 miles is a lot to cross and supply troops. Russians couldn’t to it even hold territory across one large river for long and had to retreat from Kherson. China’s army is better than Russian in my opinion and morale is probably higher.

  9. Taiwan is an island. It is way, way harder to conquer a well defended island. Taiwanese have F16. They should work good against Chinese. Global trade is connected, so I don’t think China will invade the island. It would damage them too much. They are just “showing force”, like public image stunts and try to bully Taiwan.

  11. China reads the Western newspapers too, including articles that show the West, and the U.S. in particular, is so de-industrialized that it can’t ramp up to a war production footing: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/09/us/politics/leaked-documents-ukrainian-air-defense.html
    Ukraine may run short of munitions supplies even before Russia, which is shifting to war production. America passed a record-sized defense budget, but 1/3 of that was for V.A. benefits and all the major defense contractors are reluctant or unable to expand production, partly because they require long-term defense contracts to cause them to spend the money for expansion, partly because they’ve adopted a Congressional district manufacturing distribution system so no Representative can cut defense without costing jobs in their district, and partly because the U.S. skillset is simply not available in one place anymore.
    In WWII, we had huge industrial capacity for autos, commercial aircraft and other things that could be repurposed to making tanks and military planes. That capacity is gone now, mostly to China, and without a much more aggressive push – read sacrifice by the American people – by the administration, it’s not coming back. China can take advantage of our stretched capacity to attack Taiwan and outlast America (NATO is not obligated to defend Taiwan: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm).

    • Well, yeah, but we are gearing up munitions hugely, having finally realized the error. US production is rapidly scaling up to six times what it was before the Ukrainian invasion.

      Sure, in a few decades we will forget and slack off, we always do, but the threat by then, whatever it is, sure won’t be an aged and toothless China.

  13. This is the same country that invaded Vietnam just to show them who was boss in SE Asia. At least the US was there to support South Vietnam, with a coalition.

  14. Encroaching on Taiwan.
    Encroaching on Philippines
    Encroaching on Vietnam
    Encroaching on Indonesia
    Encroaching on India

    Yea. So peaceful. All this peace. Nevermind they stand to benefit from the oil from the Arabs and have a reason for brokering a peace deal.

  15. Arguments about why invading Taiwan is a bad idea will never make it to Xi’s desk. His advisers will tell him what he wants to hear—that it can be done.

  16. Not sure if the CCP and PLA have a sane understanding that invading Taiwan eventually lead to civil conflict in China.

  17. I’m sure that China is not going to engage in some kind of honorable duel of forces.
    If anything:
    China is going to warcrime all over that place and sift through the charred ruins with its increasingly formidable hypersonic missile arsenal DF-17s etc. (at least after mid-decade), then they will thermobaric the populated and surface military areas. They have no interest in maintaining and managing a hostile population. They don’t care what the World thinks. They want the tech. They want to erase the history. They want to claim the south pacific out to (and be vaguely threatening to) Japan and the Philippines – even Guam.

    • If that’s the case, Taiwan’s only respite would be a reverse-Bay-of-Pigs. Threaten China’s population centres 10-1 with a limited nuclear ‘exchange’. Of all the nuclear hot-spot conflict areas – eastern europe, india-pakistan, iran (c’mon you know they have’em)-israel, this was the one I thought least likely.

    • …and the worst part, after the 2025 Taiwan Holocaust — it will only be an 8 – 10-year news cycle, a heavy international finger-wagging and ‘sanctions’ period, and a massive departure of all western-aligned foreign firms — then will it be, in 2035, that Apple will open its first post-‘the troubles’ era store, fast food will re-emerge, and embassies wil re-open. China won’t even lose its seat on the Security Council during the entire time. MAD is the only way.

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