Tesla Master Plan 3 analyzes the total world demand for megapack factory capacity will be 2.3 TWh/year which is equal to about sixty 40 GWh/year Lathrop Megapack factories. This would be about 600,000 3.9 MWh megapacks each year.
Tesla is completed last year and will have the Lathrop megapack factory ramped this year. Tesla just announced a Megapck factory in Shanghai. Megapack factories cost about $10 million per GWh/year in capacity. Lathrop cost about $400 million.
Tesla will not make all of the large utility fixed storage but they and other competitors will need to spend a combined $23 billion building the fixed energy storage.
Tesla analyzed the hourly energy usage around the world and how that would compare to solar and wind and other energy generation.
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So basically a trillion dollars worth of batteries. Every year. Forever. Well as long as the sun will shine, which is billions of years.
This is a total non starter on both economic and environmental/resource extraction grounds.
And this is just for current need?
How about Homo Sapiens working towards becoming a Kardashev type 1 civilization.
Clearly something other than wind, earth-bound solar and megapacks are needed.
I would say there is an urgent need to preserve the current eco-systems and halt the ongoing mass extinction. Polluting and energy intensive mining and manufacturing should move off-world. This will remove risks, bottlenecks and allow for endless expansion.
We tend to use all available energy immediately, regardless of how much new renewable energy sources gets installed. Fossil never really decreases other than locally.
As long as this is true, moving off-world is the only long term safe solution. Perhaps there is a master plan 4 for that. Let’s hope Starship doesn’t blow up too much for too long.