Canada is adding about 3050 to 3150 people per day and will pass 40.0 million people this Friday. Canada will add another 600,000 people by the end of 2023 and is adding about 1.10 to 1.14 million people each year.
This population growth is primarily through various forms of immigration, refugees and increases in non-permanent residents. The non-permanent residents can transition into permanent residents.
2022 was the first 12-month period in Canada’s history where population grew by over 1 million people, and the highest annual population growth rate (+2.7%) on record since that seen for 1957 (+3.3%). International migration accounted for nearly all growth recorded (95.9%).
The world has about 10 million people per year migrating and net migration is about 4 million people. This means that 6 million of the 10 million are people moving from A to B and an offsetting people from B to A.
Over 80% of the world’s GDP is in countries that have total fertility rates that are below replacement. About 25% of the world’s population is in countries that now have declining populations. Those countries are China, Japan, Italy, Spain, Russia and South Korea. Those countries are first but the below replacement rate issue and the loss of fertile women in each of the next decades means that the avalanche of population decline has started for almost all countries. Another 45-50% of the world has countries which have below replacement level population.
Global births are declining, particularly in non-African countries. In 2023, Africa will have about 46 million births per year and about 11 million deaths. In 2023, the world as 134 million births and 60 million deaths. Non-African world has 88 million births and 50 million deaths. Non-african global population could be in decline by about 2040.
Global deaths are increasing as the population distribution increases in age.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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I read a report a while ago that every person that moves from a 3rd world country to the US, Canada, Australia, etc will use up to 10x the natural resources that the person used to consume. Canada professes to be environmentally friendly but how is that possible if its resource consumption keeps climbing? This is a clear example of policy double talk.
Most of immigrants will go back to their home countries. Canada won’t end up with 60-100M people long term. Immigrants are here and in other Western countries only temporarily.
Just talk with them, ask them, most of them are here only for money, as soon as their countries will achieve some decent level of development, they will leave Canada, UK, Spain etc.
Even if Canada will attract 10M-20M of them in the next 20 years, almost all of them will eventually go back(I would say before 2050), so as long as native Canadians won’t have babies, Canada will end up with tiny population, just like other similar countries with low fertility rate and similar size (40M in 2023).
If only…
developing countries will not likely ever achieve the opportunity, freedom from obstacle and over-reach, release from ever present corruption and violence, and just the general uneconomic chaos that they currently have – EVs, newest consumer tech, and improved internet access can’t overcome some basic attributes etched deeply into a culture. THE ‘transformative’ tech is not on the near horizon i.e. dirt cheap ubiquitous energy, unlimited clean water and food, dirt cheap building climate control, resources for high-level early education, etc.
It is more likely that many, if not most, imigrant groups will start to balkanize, mob together, and overtake various neighborhoods, work sectors, businesses, and institutions (school and religion) – thereby solidifying a more homogenous culture. Interest in integrating into the dominant language and work culture will disintegrate, families and friends visiting will become difficult to track and expel, small parts will radicalize and take on the same violent positions and protests that unraveled the culture of the original country.
I imagine the only saving grace is that new immigration, over a generation or 2, will likely undergo the same fertility drops and stagnation as the rest of Canada and other richer destinations.
Look at this data. Check out countries like India, Bangladesh. How poor they were during 80’s, 90’s, 00’s, even 2010’s and fast they’re growing now in 2020’s + projections.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_past_and_projected_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita#IMF_projections_for_2020_through_2028
That is (low GDP/ GDP per capita) the main reason why no many things were happening there in the previous decades. GDP of a country needs to grow to certain level, so country has money to finally start some visible developlent (for example – big infra).
India, Bangladesh achieved this threshold only in recent years. From now, development will be very fast and visible for their people.
Just search on youtube phrases like “India infrastructure”, “India building” “Africa infrastructure projects” and see what is happening.
I am confident that they(South Asia and Africa) will quickly develop and will start looking similar to some Western countries now (in terms of infra). Nice roads, a lot of beautiful skyscrapers, modern buildings, enough hospitals to serve everybody, nice pavements in cities, high quality parks etc. All those basics which make country look nice and ‘cool’. Things which rich countries have for decades and therefore were attractive for people from these underdeveloped regions. They never have anything comparable, but now they’re finally doing it on a big(visible) scale.
The gap is shrinking fast.
Problems of Canada economy (when compare with US): low productivity growth, low business investment, low R&D investment, highly dependent in real estate and natural resource export, highly dependent in foreign capital. I doubt people still want to live in Canada when current economic problems accumulate and then effect quality of life in future. Human instinct tells them to live in warm region as homo sapiens evolved near equator.
Canada will be propped up by resource extraction for a long time. Yes people prefer warmer regions but it has still been able to attract immigrants and Canada will be getting warmer.
One more thing to add: while Canada is attracting huge number of immigrants, it is losing best talents to US.
80% of outcomes (or outputs) result from 20% of the population. The world would be a better place without 80% of the population.
The problem is, it’s mostly the least productive 20% that’s having the most kids. Fortunately, that 20% – even with children – consumes the fewest resources. Everyone in large, poor, families in Africa or parts of Asia or the M.E. does without, meaning the children will likely be less productive than those in countries with declining birth rates. They may even be stunted, as Brian Wang has pointed out elsewhere.
Most Canadians (72%) live below the U.S./Canadian 49th Parallel: https://www.bing.com/search?pc=U710&q=what+percentage+of+canadians+live+below+the+49th+parallel&form=BWMFDF
90% of Canadians live within 150 miles of the U.S. border. This border is currently undefended. It may become less so, as the high cost of living, and maybe some social problems from unsuccessful migration assimilation become major issues in the future. Any country with high immigration can expect upheaval, even violence. As the world moves beyond fossil fuels and more Canadian forests burn from Global Warming, this will deepen problems with the base of Canada’s economy.
The big cities there include Toronto and Montreal. These cities are already facing housing shortages: https://brandondonnelly.com/2022/05/11/how-to-tell-if-you-have-a-housing-shortage/
One unspoken of factor in the housing shortage, however, is the rise of single family, or even just single person, households. There is more lower income in such households than lower expenses from fewer mouths to feed. Still, the shortages are real and are causing social problems already.
Unless monopolies – including Nimbyism – and oligarchical rent-seeking systems are resolved, productivity in declining population countries will not rise fast enough to meet demands from expanding needs, until there is a Black Death ratio between people who work for a living vs. those who “make money while they sleep.”
Presumably you’d be in the 20%?
I don’t think the rate of immigration to Canada is sustainable without a much more focused, urgent and effective approach to addressing housing supply, construction capacity and infrastructure growth. Rents and house prices are growing beyond affordable levels and it is degrading quality of life.
Shut up, racist. /sarc
Completely agree. If you look at what the Century Initiative is planning with 100 million people by 2100, they would turn all of our major cities into megacities. Having been to many megacities while travelling, the quality of life in these cities is not very good. This is not something we should be aspiring toward. It only serves politicians looking to have power over more citizens.