China Copying SpaceX Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, Starship and Starlink from 2025-2035

by

China rocket startup Space Pioneer, aka Beijing Tianbing Technology, has raised a total of three billion Chinese yuan ($414 million) across 11 rounds since its establishment in 2018. The funding will be used to complete the Tianlong-3 kerosene-liquid oxygen launch vehicle and its engine and the construction of a dedicated launch complex at the Jiuquan national spaceport. Tianlong-3 (“Sky Dragon-3”) is a two-stage kerosene-liquid oxygen rocket with a reusable first stage. Space Pioneer’s Tianlong-3 will be capable of lifting 17 tons of payload to low Earth orbit or 14 tons to 500-kilometer sun-synchronous orbit.

In April 2023, they had a successful first launch of the Tianlong-2 rocket. Space Pioneer is the first Chinese commercial startup to reach orbit with a liquid propellant launcher. The three-stage Tianlong-2 is capable of carrying 2,000 kilograms to low Earth orbit (LEO) or 1,500 kg to a 500-kilometer-altitude sun-synchronous orbit (SSO). The Tianlong-2 is larger than the SpaceX Falcon 1 but has far less payload than an early Falcon 9.

They will launch the 13,000 satellite Guowang constellation which is China’s answer to the SpaceX Starlink satellites. Guowang replaced earlier plans for smaller LEO communications constellations named Hongyan and Hongyun. Hongyan and Hongyun weree planned by China’s main space contractor CASC and its sister defense giant CASIC respectively. In March 2022, Beijing-based startup Galaxy Space launched six stackable V-band satellites on a Long March 2C rocket. Guowang will launch on Long March rockets and any other rockets available from Chin’sa rocket startups.

A new version of the Long March 5B will be able to send 25 metric tons of payload to LEO, for launching large batches of satellites for constellations.

Tianbing Technology has been funded by CICC Capital, CCB International, Zhejiang University Lianchuang, Zhangjiagang Ecological Technology City, Cointreau Investment, Guoke Investment, Inno Angel, Jiuyou Capital, Lushi Investment, Eagle Fund, Hongfu Assets, Zijin Investment, Tongtai Capital, Zheshang Venture Capital, CITIC Construction Investment, Soochow Venture Capital, Paradigm Fund, Zaihe Investment.

They are completing development of the Tianlong-3 large-scale liquid carrier rocket. It has a diameter of 3.8 meters and a take-off mass of 570 tons. It is designed to be highly reliable and able to launch many times a year. The rocket will apply dozens of new technologies to greatly improve the cost performance. At present, the engineering design and product production have been completed. The first test flight is scheduled for 2024. From 2025, the plan is to quickly reach a rate of 30 launches per year. This would be the level of launches that SpaceX had around 2020-2021. SpaceX went to 60 launches in 2022 and SpaceX is on track for nearly 100 launches in 2023.

Space Pioneer has plans for a Tianlong-3H which is a triple-core like the SpaceX Falcon Heavy. The planned Tianlong-3M is a single core rocket tipped with a reusable spaceplane.

China is planning the Long March 9 rocket for 2033. This is a program to copy the SpaceX Super Heavy Starship.

11 thoughts on “China Copying SpaceX Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, Starship and Starlink from 2025-2035”

  1. Hard to see Guowang going up with the current crop of chinese startups. SpaceX is having a hard enough time getting Starlink up and running with just Falcon 9 as is, which is around 4000 sats? Though being a national pride project, it would be interesting to see just how far the chinese government would subsidize the first decade of Guowang when it’s running in the red (pun intended). They’ve seen the value Starlink is providing ukraine in that conflict, so they won’t walk away from a dual use constellation.

    If the CZ-10 Starship clone does get up and running though, that does change the cost metrics to something more reasonable. Right now it’s being set up for their lunar ambitions (with commensurate low launch rate), but having a commercial megaconstellation rollout helping to bring it operational and reduce costs lifts all boats in the chinese domestic space industry.

  2. I suspect budgetary constraints in China may interfere substantially with any attempt to overtake SpaceX in the next few decades. There are other issues such that, so long as SpaceX remains vigilant, and does not grow complacent, it shouldn’t be damaged by rival programs.

  5. Well, the Europeans are also adapting SpaceX type rockets, so does Blue origin and who knows who else. That should have been expected. The question is when these rockets are going to be available and what about designs that exceed SpaceX technology.

    • “and what about designs that exceed SpaceX technology.”

      Probably not going to be an issue, even at the present level of bureaucratic interference Musk is facing. Musk has too much of a head start, and frequent launches provide his development program with a lot of real world data. (Though our government is doing it’s best to minimize that advantage.)

      The real competition threat SpaceX faces isn’t from rocketry, it’s from non-rocketry approaches to space access. SpaceX is really increasing traffic to orbit, and the real obstacle to non-rocketry approaches such as launch loops or terrestrial mass drivers is the lack of sufficient traffic to justify the large fixed investment.

      The only China is going to stop playing catch up with SpaceX is if they leap frog him by picking one of those non-rocketry approaches, and throwing absurd resources at it.

      Or, admittedly, by ordering a hit on Musk. I sure wouldn’t sell him any life insurance at this point.

        • I don’t think they are Willing to jeopardize the relationship meaning Tesla China. It is the only place that Elons genius touches Chinese soil.

Comments are closed.