Ukraine Proved $40 Million Worth of Missiles Breaks Russia and China’s S-400 Air Defense

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Ukraine was able to destroy a submarine and a navy landing ship in dry dock but under the protection of several Russian S-400 anti-missile systems. It is interesting for how they succeeded because it effects how we think about China’s air defenses. Ukraine defeated the S-400 anti-missile batteries and radar. Russia has about three times as many S-400 systems as China does. Each set is 8 launchers and 32 missiles. 16+ sets Russia and China bought 6 sets and has older S-300s. Ukraine was able to overwhelm the S-400s with drones, cheap S-200s and then anti radar missiles and then the UK Storm Shadow missile. $40 Million of attacking missiles beat $400-800 million of defending systems. China defending systems would be 3 times more costly. China bought from Russia and Russia charged a market price of about $500-625 million each instead ofthe $200 million cost to Russia. The UK Storm Shadow missiles are about $2 million each.

Ukraine started with a distraction attack using suicide explosive ship drones. They then launched some S-200 missiles to allow them to identify the Russian air defense. Ukraine launched anti-radar missiles to blind the air defense and then they launched the Storm Shadow missiles.

This shows that the Russian S-400 systems are fairly sophisticated and effective. It shows that multi-pronged missile attacks can overwhelm the defense systems. A regular S-400 battalion consists of up to eight launchers with 32 missiles and a mobile command post. TASS reported that as of the end of 2015, a total of eleven Russian missile regiments were armed with S-400, and by the end of 2016 their number was expected to increase to sixteen.

China has at least six batteries of S-400.

Here is the 196 page, 2022 US Military assessment of China’ Military.

The PRC has a robust and redundant IADS (Integrated Air Defense System) architecture over land areas and within 300 nm (556 km) of its coast that relies on an extensive early warning radar network, fighter aircraft, and a variety of SAM systems. The PRC has also placed radars and air defense weapons on outposts in the South China Sea, further extending the range of its IADS. It also employs point defenses, primarily to defend strategic targets against adversary long-range cruise missiles and airborne strike platforms.

The PLA has increasing numbers of advanced long-range SAMs, including its indigenous CSA-9 (HQ-9) and its follow-on HQ-9B, Russian SA-10 (S300PMU), and SA-20 (S300PMU1 / PMU2), all of which have the advertised capability to protect against both aircraft and low-flying cruise missiles. To improve its strategic air defenses, the PLA possesses Russian-built SA-21 (S-400) Triumf SAM systems as a follow-on to the SA-20. Compared to these other systems, the SA-21 systems possess a longer maximum range, improved missile seekers, and more sophisticated radars.

The PRC manufactures a variety of long-range air surveillance radars, including models claiming to support ballistic missile defense (BMD) and other models asserting the ability to detect stealth aircraft. Marketing materials also emphasize these systems’ ability to counter long-range airborne strike and combat support aircraft. PLAAF AEW and C aircraft such as the KJ-2000 and KJ-500 can further extend the PRC’s s radar coverage well past the range of its ground-based radars.

There is clearly no perfect defense. China has a lot of offensive missiles. In a US-China war both sides would be firing at each other.

18 thoughts on “Ukraine Proved $40 Million Worth of Missiles Breaks Russia and China’s S-400 Air Defense”

  1. Russia has good propaganda machinery. It is not to believe them, they lie as it is their second nature. Most likely 4-5 storm s. were fired and 3-5 hit the mark.

  2. The S400 that was destroyed in southern Kherson about a week ago was filmed by a loitering Ukrainian drone during the strike. That’s not exactly the sign of a sophisticated or capable system. S400 appears to be another Russian hype weapon: all hat, no cattle.

    It should also be noted that *Russia* stated that ten Storm Shadows were fired. The UK MOD stated that four Storm Shadows were fired and three hit their targets. I’ll believe the UK MOD over Russia any day.

  3. That it seems true the Russians were able to shoot down 7 out of 10 storm shadows is a pretty good result. I would have hoped the stealth cruise missiles would have the same survivability of an F35, but at much lower altitude too. The S-400 would seem to work as well as advertised (Which, from the way the rest of the Russian stuff seems to work, is highly unusual).

    • Keep in mind that 10 storm shadows is Russias claim. UK MOD says 4 were fired in the attack. I would assume there were 4 real storm shadow, some ADM-160 MALD decoy missiles and possibly also some HARM missiles. I would not bet that the total number of missiles was 10 because Russia may not even know and even if they do they tend to lie even when there is no point in lying.

  5. I’m a bit surprised that Ukraine hasn’t started using pulse jets for drone attacks on Russia or even Moscow. These are very easy to build and could be built in the thousands very quickly.
    Aluminum and SS with a good wing and fuselage design and you would get 3-400 mile range with a healthy amount of explosive and GPS accuracy at 400 MPH.

  6. How are S-400 systems going to fight a naval blockade? It is stupid to fight the Chinese within missile range of main land China when you can just shut off their shipping and wait.

  7. No defense system is perfect. And even a perfect one could be overwhelmed. Not that the ones in crimea are perfect by any stretch of imagination. It is surprising that it took so long for Ukraine to find workaround. On the other hand any new tactics is one trick pony. The weapon systems and tactics evolve. At the beginning bsytactar drones were wrecking havoc. The the russkies found ways to jam them.

    Ultimately a drone war isa war of economies and technologies. Cheap mass produced drones can mean hundred of launches per day.

    Alas we see endless infantry assaults without air and artillery superiority.

    • It wasn’t just jaming. AFAIK Russia outran their air defense in the early parts of the invasion; especially around Kyiv. Ukraine shot a few tanks in the front of the column and a few in the back with various shoulder launched ATGM-systems and the rasputitsa allowed enough time to get out reinforcements and mines and stall the column for days. The tanks burned fuel to keep warm until they ran out. It was a pure turkey shoot for Bayraktar.

      That level of opportunity wasn’t coming back. Even Russians won’t repeat that level of advanced mental retardation twice.

  8. How is throwing $40M worth of imported golden bullets at $400M worth of diesel sub in dry dock a resounding success?

    Attacking Russian infrastructure on Russian Crimea with English weapons really crosses a lot of red lines. Might be time for a few aviation or shipping accidents to prove a point. My flight in June took me over the Russian frontier into Hong Kong. Pick one and knock it down, then make up an excuse. Send a message or 10.

  9. This is only a problem of tactics. Every weapon has weaknesses. I think S400 need tor, pantsir and electronic warfare systems to protect itself. Russia will learn from failure and this will not be a strategic success of Ukr.

    • Ukraine is also learning. Implementing lessons takes time; especially when the lies are inflated each step up in the chain of command and the people making the decisions don’t understand the situation on the ground (e.g. Russia claims to have destroyed more HIMARS launchers than there have ever been in Ukraine my a large multiple).

      • As true cosmopolitans they are at home everywhere . Joke aside they feel Ukraine is their backyard. Not to mention annexed parts.

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