Bradford Ferguson reports that the Tesla Megapack factory will expand to 80 GWH per year of capacity. The original megapack factory capacity was 40 GWH.
Bradford also reports that the limitations on Tesla megapack production will be lifting. The Tesla factory only had one of two lines running and has been producing 4 GWH per quarter which is about 16 GWh per year. This is about $1.5 billion of revenue and $500 million of profits each quarter. Bradford says the limitations were silicon carbide chips.
Tesla expanding to four lines and 80 GWh would be $40 billion per year in revenue. This would be about $8-10 billion per year of profit. Tesla has about $10 billion of net income this year for all of the car business. IF Tesla expands to 80GWH/year of megapacks then this will more than double profits for 2024 versus 2023.
They are averaging 12-15 megapacks per day but have the current capacity for 18 megapacks per day. Megapacks for 4 MWH of energy per unit. This would mean about $2 to 2.5 Billion in megapacks for the quarter. However, the revenue is not recognized until the packs are installed and connected to the grid which can take 1-3 months after they are made.
27 Megapacks per day would be 10000 per year.
54 megapacks per day would be 20000 per year. (80 GWH capacity).
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
Bradford made the point very forcefully that Silicon Nitride which is used in the megapacks is extremely difficult to manufacture, with only one exactly right chrystal out of a potential 200 that is required. Only 2 companies are making them. Whether these companies can ramp up in line with the Megapack growth is by no means a given. Yet this was totally missing in Brian Wang’s report
How are these Megapacks charged and what is the cost to have them charged. ?
For those of you who have questions whether there is demand for Tesla Megapacks and where the current and future projects are:
https://lorenz-g.github.io/tesla-megapack-tracker/
I have several questions about this business. First, how does Tesla’s Megapack business beat CATL’s mega pack business? Since Tesla buys their batteries from CATL can’t CATL’s Megapack business restrict supply to Tesla’s Megapack business if Tesla gets too competitive? How could they ever win against them? Second, I also want to know who they are selling battery packs to. Is it just to themselves? Are they selling to places like Australia solely because the Aussies don’t want to buy Chinese? Next, are these just going to Tesla owned projects like the one in Moss Landing, Ca? I like that business as a revenue stream for Tesla, but I’m not sure why Brian thinks it only takes 3 months to hook a new battery/renewable project into the grid. This article talks about lowering the wait time from 5 years to just 2 years:”Adding clean energy to the US power grid just got a lot easier” by The Verge (July 28, 2023)The article also discusses the FERC’s decision to approve new interconnection rules. It states that the new rules could help to reduce the average time for a new energy project to connect to the grid from five years to two years. The article also quotes FERC Chair Willie Phillips as saying that the new rules are “a watershed moment for our nation’s transmission grid.” A second article “US moves to link more wind and solar projects to electric grid” by Reuters (July 27, 2023) Talks about 2000 Gigawatts of clean energy projects already built and waiting to be hooked up to the grid. What a bureaucracy failure! And last I want to know how big of a market is this? The battery packs are needed only during peak hours, almost always between 4-8 pm. around the world. How many power plants are there in the world and how many will order a Megapack from Tesla and/or CATL? Whats the market capacity for this product?
https://lorenz-g.github.io/tesla-megapack-tracker/
This will answer many of your questions. It lists the current and future projects for mega-packs.
Great new info. I’ll have to study it a bit. Thanks.
I listened to the podcast, and although it seemed pretty sure that the lathrop factory is expanding, there was no actual evidence that the limitations (batteries, carbon nitride transistors) had been lifted. I.e. there is no information about how the ramping will proceed.
Interested in actual sales numbers. What are the dollar sales and Gw of mega packs sold to utilities and industrial plants at this point ?
Wish that that tesla would push utilities to subsidize houses powerpacks.
Then if utility does 50%, the house pays 50%, and then utility uses 50% for free, while if needed, they can buy electricity from other 50%, assuming that house owner allows it.
When disaster strikes, then battery is 100% by homeowner.
IOW, do the same thing as Vermont Green utility.
There are many pilots like this. They don’t scale because they aren’t cost effective.