Does Kim Jong Un Read Nextbigfuture?

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Kim Jong-un has been filmed crying while appealing to North Korea’s women to have more children. North Korea’s leader was spotted dabbing his eyes with a white handkerchief while addressing thousands of women. Many in the audience also wept.

Nextbigfuture has been writing extensively about the massive economic problems and risks to the world from the low birth rates.

Birth rates are below replacement for over 80% of the world including China, Korea, Taiwan, India, Bangledesh, Japan, Spain and more. This is causing the number of women who could be future mothers to collapse. The number of women who are fertile now is less than half the peak level in Japan. The number of baby to 15 year old girls is 30-50% less than the number of women in the 20-35 range in many of countries with collapsing population.

Global fertility collapse will be worse than the black death. The Black Death was the most extreme pandemic. It killed 30 to 50 percent of the entire population of Europe. The plague might have reduced the world population from c. 475 million to 350–375 million in the 14th century. (1346-1353)

A global TFR of 1.4 over the remainder of the century could bring global population from a peak of 9-10 billion in 2050 to 6-7 billion in 2100. It would be a Black Death over 50-60 years instead of 7 years. But the low birth population decline might not stop.

It is not just a China, Japan, Italy, Spain, Russia and South Korea problem. Those countries are first but the below replacement rate issue and the loss of fertile women in each of the next decades means that the avalanche has started for almost all countries. It is something about our cities, work life and society that is anti-family.

None of the pro-natal measures have moved ANY country back up to over replacement level.

The measures and re-organization of societies and cities must be vastly more aggressive.

The Rule of TWO… point one

Husband and wives MUST average 2.1 children. It is not optional for humanity and society.

In biology, when a population starts declining, it is usually not a controlled thing that re-stabilizes at a lower level.

Self-Genocide

If Aliens from space or an other country were forcing the disappearance of large numbers of the next generation, then the population would fight and resist. Japan losing 30 million people from a peak of 128.2 million in 2008 to 98 million in 2055 would be worse than all its losses in WW2. It would be 200 times worse than the Hiroshima and Nagasaki nuclear bombs.

China could lose over 300 million people 2050 out of 1.42 billion. China lost 20 million people in WW2 out of 525 million.

Populaion collapse will reshape the global economy by 2050.

Shrinking and aging population can lead to a permanent great depression and the collapse of major banks in decades.

The world could drop from 8 billion people today to 250 million people in 2200. This means there will only be about 3% of today’s population in 2200.

One way to calculate national GDP is Number of people times the average economic activity per person.
This economy is also mostly dependent up on the working age population actually working and being productive.

How big would a global economy be that has 3% of the people and only 2% of the working age population? For the world economy to be the same size, you would need to have 33 times the per capita income. This is just to be equal and have overall economic stagnation.

24 thoughts on “Does Kim Jong Un Read Nextbigfuture?”

  1. It is inevitable that someone will devote the resources to specifically train an AI in microbiology, chemistry, etc, with the goal of developing medications and compounds to cure cancer, increase longevity, and repair tissues.

    This should be a public effort, not only a corporate one.

    As an example, the US spends over $50 billion dollars per year just on providing dialysis to people with kidney disease.

    Training an AI to develop ways to repair or replace diseased kidneys alone would save the Gov at least a trillion dollars over 20 years.

    Most of the conceptual work has already been done, and kidney tissue has already been grown in labs.

    All that’s needed is a large enough model to hold and process all that research — fast.

    Heart disease in America costs the Fed almost $250 billion a year.

    Fatty liver disease costs over $30 billion a year.

  2. Finally a reason to be happy for being really old and way beyond childbearing years… Soon this lunatic and others like him (Ji Ping, Putin, arabs) will be enforcing a handmaid’s tale type of society. You just wait and see…

  3. If debt wasnt such a problem then the shrinking of the economy wouldt be a problem not?
    I mean if the debts goes as the people go, the GDP of a country getting smaller wouldnt be a problem, since we are the economy and the economy is here to support the people, its not that the people are here for the economy. Would other countries not being able to pay of debt all togheter at the same rates be a reason to cut debt or exchange then whatsoever, is there a possible system to wave away debt or such? – thinking about this all, damn bankers are bad people.

    Btw I never get followup mails either.

    • He needs to take care of his his subjects—they are hungry and too afraid to ask for anything–or too proud…as my father was.

      Elevate the farmer.

  4. Well I’m cheering for the countries that can at least delay this problem because they’re not xenophobic and also attractive enough (read democratic) to entice immigrants.

  5. @Brian Wang
    (sorry for posting what should be a reply here, but something is not working and reloading the page, I am unable to see the reply)

    I am sorry Brian. I don´t see my answer here as so rude, since I see much more rude answers criticizing NBF and I never saw you complaining, so I was caught with surprise by your warning.

    Also, there is the problem that despite always inserting my email, I don´t receive emails of follow up to NBF posts since 2021.

    So if you ever replied to me about this issue of “fertility vs longevity”, I have not seen it.

    If you don´t mind, I would like that you tackled this issue in other of your posts about declining fertility rates instead of just writing as a comment to my criticism.

    Mr Wang, when you sau my rude manners are a problem, are you talking about thius post specifically or about others too?

    Unfortunatelly, as I can´t check my other comments, I don´t even know of all the replies I did and to what articles.

    So I can´t analyze my OWN posts to check if I have been really rude, if on purpose or by accident (what is rude to someone may not be rude to another person. Sometimes it’s a language problem, etc)

    If you think the rudeness is a constant problem, if you don´t mind, send me an email or reply here with the posts where I have been rude so I can think of how to change my writing style to be less rude, ok?

    I don´t have anything against you or NBF. I am a fan, although I don´t agree with 100% of articles, I still agree with most amd read NBF daily.

    • I don’t catch every case of rudeness. You are whitelisted and there are other whitelisted people who initially had a decent comment and then were allowed to comment. I do not have time to scan all of the comments.

      For rudeness, pretend you are a dinner guest. Would you say, hey host you do not read your own work and don’t know what you are saying.

      Things could be fixed with antiaging success but this depends on a very robust antiaging technology that can be deployed to almost everyone. This is a high bar. In the meantime we are already decades into Japan’s demographic collapse.

      When do you see antiaging robust enough to fix this to happen?

      China could drop to under 1 billion people by 2050. This and Japan and the other countries could be a $20 trillion hit to the world economy.

      Regeneration could be created in 30 years but that does not help people 1 million people killed each year in car accidents for the next 30 years. If the regeneration tech take 40 years to deploy it could still not help most people. Imoortant Vaccines have worked for almost 100 years but ppor people in Africa and some Asia have not gotten the benefit.

      • Longevity is good, I even think likely. But there’s a value in projecting a future based off one trend at a time, because it gives us a reason to pursue the other ones. I don’t think our population will collapse, BUT IT COULD, and that should give us motivation.

      • I don’t think total gdp size is as important as gdp per Capita.

        I also think anti aging will come before the more drastic collapses

        Finally, there is also the question of AGI and ASI. Probably massive gdp boosts independent of population, and big drop in jobs available

  6. Next Big Future doesnt read itself, otherwise one would remember all the articles about longevity galloping fast, which would not only solve this problem but in fact, create overpopulation

    • It is a matter of timing and probability. I can write about longevity work having some lab progress. But so far we are talking minor effects. Plus even if you extended lifespan to 200 but did not increase the length of womens fertility and if women did not use that lengthened fertility to have more children then depopulation still happens.

      Rogerio, your rudeness is a problem. I am giving you a warning to be polite or you will get blocked from commenting.

      • I am sorry Brian. I don´t see my answer here as so rude, since I see much more rude answers criticizing NBF and I never saw you complaining, so I was caught with surprise by your warning.

        Also, there is the problem that despite always inserting my email, I don´t receive emails of follow up to NBF posts since 2021.

        So if you ever replied to me about this issue of “fertility vs longevity”, I have not seen it.

        If you don´t mind, I would like that you tackled this issue in other of your posts about declining fertility rates instead of just writing as a comment to my criticism.

        Mr Wang, when you sau my rude manners are a problem, are you talking about thius post specifically or about others too?

        Unfortunatelly, as I can´t check my other comments, I don´t even know of all the replies I did and to what articles.

        So I can´t analyze my OWN posts to check if I have been really rude, if on purpose or by accident (what is rude to someone may not be rude to another person. Sometimes it’s a language problem, etc)

        If you think the rudeness is a constant problem, if you don´t mind, send me an email or reply here with the posts where I have been rude so I can think of how to change my writing style to be less rude, ok?

        I don´t have anything against you or NBF. I am a fan, although I don´t agree with 100% of articles, I still agree with most amd read NBF daily.

      • I am sorry Brian. I don´t see my answer here as so rude, since I see much more rude answers criticizing NBF and I never saw you complaining, so I was caught with surprise by your warning.

        Also, there is the problem that despite always inserting my email, I don´t receive emails of follow up to NBF posts since 2021.

        So if you ever replied to me about this issue of “fertility vs longevity”, I have not seen it.

        If you don´t mind, I would like that you tackled this issue in other of your posts about declining fertility rates instead of just writing as a comment to my criticism.

        Mr Wang, when you sau my rude manners are a problem, are you talking about thius post specifically or about others too?

        Unfortunatelly, as I can´t check my other comments, I don´t even know of all the replies I did and to what articles.

        So I can´t analyze my OWN posts to check if I have been really rude, if on purpose or by accident (what is rude to someone may not be rude to another person. Sometimes it’s a language problem, etc)

        If you think the rudeness is a constant problem, if you don´t mind, send me an email or reply here with the posts where I have been rude so I can think of how to change my writing style to be less rude, ok?

        I don´t have anything against you or NBF. I am a fan, although I don´t agree with 100% of articles, I still agree with most amd read NBF daily.

        ps: I am finding problems to post this very comment. I just got a message it was duplicate, but when reloading, it was not there.

    • Lol
      Longevity research MIGHT pay off in the coming decades but is exclusive from the imminent fertility crisis ALREADY being felt in nations.

  7. Population collapse is ranked #2 on my “not a problem” list, right after atmospheric CO2 plant food concentration. There were less than 2E9 people on the planet prior to WW1. We’ll be fine.

  8. This is NOT a problem with the ultra-religious.
    Amish, Orthodox Jews, Mormons, etc. are experiencing population rises.
    Modern feminism has convinced woman that a young mother is a failed woman.
    Urbanization (small homes) and governments that do NOT see motherhood as a profession (governments should PAY women to raise citizens) lead to small families.
    The problem is self healing, the righteous will inherit the earth.

    • The environmental extremists in charge will not be happy until the population is culled to half of what it is now. Live in your tiny home, eat your bugs, and do not question the God.

    • They are experiencing population increases from demographic momentum but steady fertility declines. Their decline in fertility began later but is preceding faster than other groups and due to the factors driving it may find it more difficult a dive to pull out of than other groups. Eventually the issue will self-limit but it won’t be a mass takeover of fundamentalists with massive families who lead the way.

    • Yes, and if society continues to pay for people to have babies, then the wrong (read: dumb and bad parenting) people will continue to have the most children, with the smart people too busy with their careers and actually worried about what kind of life their potential children will have, to have smart children who can solve today’s and tomorrow’s major problems. We will and are raising the next generation of takers, not makers.
      A new survey of Berkeley college students found that most of the ones who believed Palestine should be from the “River to the Sea” could identify neither the (Jordan) river, nor the (Mediterranean) sea. They thought it might be the Nile, or Euphrates river to the Red or even Caribbean(!) sea. When shown what the actual land for Palestinians would be and how Israel would disappear, 67% of them changed their mind and no longer believed Palestine should be from the river to the sea. And this is in a top U.S. college. IVY leagues aren’t much better, and may even be more indoctrinating.
      My point is that we have to get FAR better at educating and helping people we already have to reach their potential.
      This is exactly what happened after the Black Death. Those who weren’t killed became much more valuable labor, which led to the Renaissance, the industrial age, and modern society out of the middle (formerly “dark”) ages.
      In this same issue of NBF, astounding AI developments are shown that will leapfrog humanity past what 100, 1000, people even working at full capacity could achieve, all for fractions of the resources of middle/upper middle class resource consumption.
      Resource consumption mitigation/substitution is simply moving too slowly if at all (e.g. coal use is still rising worldwide, fish stocks are still shrinking, top soil is still disappearing, etc. etc.). The only near term solution that isn’t murderous is people having fewer children, and the stupid and impoverished should not be encouraged to fill the gap, or we’ll just get a lot of stupid, impoverished, and violent, kids.

      • Japan is an example of how resource use can plummet with population decline – old people use fewer resources for the most part, except for healthcare: https://6k86l.r.bh.d.sendibt3.com/mk/mr/sh/SMJz0ACyFvfre8kVBvK7FyY4zWnz/sKrCxEUqc3Pt
        I don’t see any country has a decline like this without commensurate population declines. Nothing else seems to work, aside from wars but they use resources like crazy before enough people are killed to matter, and even then, after wars and plagues, people survive and need expensive follow-up care.

        Don’t worry, eventually the population will stabilize, once life becomes affordable and kids are not a lifelong burden.

  9. 100 billion Tesla and other bots + aging reversal + AGI/ASI. After that nanoreplicators. We will be fine.

    It shouldn’t be a problem for advanced civ (we after 2030). In worst case scenario, we will probably “farm kids”, all of them with >200 IQ.

    Yes, at the moment, it may look scary, tech and science is still not advanced enough, but I think that in a few years automation, science and AI will advance so much, that we’ll stop seeing population decline as a problem.

  10. But does this projected drop take into account that the population is not a homogeneous “mass”? Some people have far larger interest in having children. Let us assume that predisposition to have many children is hereditary. Let’s say 10% likes 3 or more children. By 2200, we should have – after roughly 6 generations – 0.1*1.5^6 = 1.13, i.e. there would be at least 13% more “high birthers” by 2200 than the whole population of today!
    The population crunch will be shaped like a “v” with a bottom and a steep recovery.

    • I suppose currently we have an anti-natality mix of culture, technology and economy, maybe also coupled with some anti-fertility environmental pollution. I guess we should compare our times, economy and culture with the 1950s and 1960s or earlier decades to know what went wrong. For instance, there was no electronic dopamine drivers, competing with children and marriage. As far as I know, in at least the first half of the XXth century there was an assumption that a salary of a single spouse should be enough to support both the couple and the kids. And, probably, in that period, the cost of having you own place to live would not mean that you are enslaved by some bank for life. Then, there is also the sperm count decreasing in the industrialized countries. These are some primary problems IMO, but there could be more.

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