B2B will be the larger future revenue.
For B2C:
The total TAM is about $10-20B. Tech incumbents make more now. Google ($280B), Microsoft ($218B), and Meta ($117B).
The breakeven for the $20/month GPT+ subscription fee is about 50 pages of text output per day at the current token cost. There are currently about 3 million customers paying $240 per year for about $700 million in revenue.
Nextbigfuture notes the token and other costs could decrease with more efficient future AI. The B2C TAM could increase if AI is able to deliver more future customer value.
For B2B:
The total TAM at $200B+ under current token pricing. This assumes an addressable population of 2 billion and an ARPU of at least $100.
In October, 2023, Sam Altman said the OpenAI runrate was $1.3 billion. This is likely $1.5 billion now. The B2B portion is the difference between the runrate less the B2C estimate.
More competition from open-source models will likely reduce the TAM for closed-source models.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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AGI is a different animal, maybe, but AI is just a work around for intelligence. Call it cognitive automation. You don’t regulate it. You regulate how people use or misuse it. I have little doubt government agencies will eventually have full stables of artilects designed specifically for finding and dealing with people who are misusing AI.
Most people will have forgotten but back in the 80s there was talk about creating electronic monetary systems that governments would be powerless against because they would have no control over them. Ha.
How to regulate AI, assuming that AI even CAN be regulated?
“AI is evolving faster than Western AI regulators know what to regulate. According to the NYT: “When European Union leaders introduced a 125-page draft law to regulate artificial intelligence in April 2021, they hailed it as … ‘future proof’ … then came ChatGPT.” Government is losing the battle, and the bureaucrats can’t do a thing about it.”
See:
https://pjmedia.com/richard-fernandez/2023/12/08/only-ai-can-protect-against-ai-n4924620