The direct Iranian missile attack did not do direct damage to Israel. However, it has opened the door to direct military action between Iran and Israel.
Iran and Israel are 620 miles apart. Iran is almost 2.4 times the land area of Texas. It is slightly larger than the state of Alaska. Iran’s dimensions are roughly 800 miles by 800 miles.
Th F-16 and F-35 jets that Israel has have a range of about 800-1000 miles. This is with extra fuel tanks on the F-16. Israel has limited in air refueling. A smaller amount of the air force could reach Iran mid-flight refueling but they would then be striking maybe 200 miles inside Iran with a small part of their force.
A 900 mile strike would require refueling after about 500 miles, hitting something 300-400 miles further about 100-200 miles inside of Iran and then flying back out and refueling again before landing. This assumes using about 100 miles of fuel over the target. The missiles fired might reach another 10-40 miles.
UPDATE: There are reports that Israel will strike Iran back. It will remain a tactical surprise but Iran now knows that likely within some number of days. Israel will launch an attack.
Analysis of Long Strike Capabilities of Israel and Iran
Israel would need to base out of Saudi Arabia or the UAE to get operational effectiveness.
If the US is supporting only for Israel’s defense then the US would not be providing the large aerial refueling capability or access to US bases in other countries around Iran.
Israel like Iran do have some longer range missiles and drones.
Iran’s force also have the same range problem, which was part of the reason the attack over the weekend had no airplanes. The Iranian Migs and F-14s also do not have the range.
Iran used 150 ballistic missiles. Iran used most of its stockpile of long range. Iran has about 3000 missiles but most of those have shorter ranges. The long range drones and missiles used by Iran was what they had that could reach Israel.
Israel can use the Mossad spy agency for assassinations and sabotage. Israel can use cyberattacks.
Israel can also increase direct actions against Iran’s Quds forces (Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iran militias in Yemen, Syria and Iraq). The Iranian funded militias are the forces that can engage Israel and the militias are the ones that Israel can curb stomp if needed to send a message of resolve.
Israel has already been exchanging attacks with Hezbollah for the past 6 months that his killed over 500 Hezbollah forces.
The Iranian leadership and Israel’s leadership seem to have the political need to show its citizen’s that they will not stand by while they are being attacked. This seems to be a motivation for using more of the small direct attack and direct actions between the two countries.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
Trump, and MAGA are IMO, the REAL “Manchurian Candidates”. The Russians have a classic term to label those who blindly advance Russian interests w/out knowing (or care) their doing so: “Useful Idiots”. They are clueless their being manipulated to “HATE” America. I can’t say their traitors by choice (I hope not). But I CAN say they are being led around by the nose and a lot of them, seem to enjoy it. Pardon me if I throw up… I don’t believe in fighting others battles (unless their an ally, like a NATO member, which is all about being a true ally is). Honestly, what I just said scars me a little about the very angry reaction I may get from some people. But my POV is just that, and so is everyone else. So it should be.
I do believe in doing all we can to help a democracy (like Ukraine) fight against an unprovoked attack by a dictatorship (Russia). Let us provide whatever resources we can. And PLEASE, quickly. If you think Russia will stop it’s military aggression if it defeats Ukraine, that’s another definition of “Useful Idiot”. It won’t stop, it never has. Unless we all help stop it. Not by fighting their battles. But by helping them fight their own.
It may be that both are toothless dogs
Wrong. They both have very sharp teeth. It’s the “so called dog”, who underestimates the other, who will loose.
“Iran used 150 ballistic missiles. Iran used most of its stockpile of long range. Iran has about 3000 missiles but most of those have shorter ranges. The long range drones and missiles used by Iran was what they had that could reach Israel.”
I have to ask Brian, how on earth do you know how many missiles Iran has? This sounds similar to the “Russia has run out of weapons” narrative going as far back as summer 2022.
I have to agree with Bidens puppet master here; Israel should take the win.
Israel (allegedly) killed General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, inside the Iranian embassy, and now Iran has returned fire, but they missed.
There is nothing to be gained by escalating further.
Also worth adding that any long range air attack would require permission from the US to get through controlled air space. That might violate the Biden promise to not support an Israeli response.
Maybe this means something biggish locally to reduce the number of rockets in Lebanon, and something more subtle against the Iranian nuclear weapons program.
Maybe a missile strike on Iran to reduce weapons production.
The countries in between Iran and Israel have a right to control their airspace too, and Jordan and Saudi Arabia shot down some of the missiles with American help, for that reason. They should continue to do so, and argue before the U.N. and ICC that their own citizens are being endangered by Iran’s actions, and Israel’s too, if they engage in a counter-response. The latter is so that Iran cannot declare them enemies in a war too. Missile ranges can be overcome. Geography cannot, unless Iran continues to take over parts of other countries and use proxies. That’s another issue and it ought to be condemned by ever international authority available. The U.N. is almost hopelessly anti-Israel, however, as are other agencies, but the U.S. can impose funding punishments on the U.N. since it’s the biggest supporter and hosts the U.S. in NYC. It can lodge formal protests over sovereignty issues that Jordan and Iraq may be too timid to lodge against Iran alone.
We simply do not need another conflict in the Middle East destabilizing things once again.
Does the region really look stable? I do not think so.
Iran needs to be isolated and have the fear-of-god drilled into their evil hearts. Appeasement never works with bullies. Beating the crap out of them is effective. Weakness only invites more abuse.
Biden’s foolishness and weakness has been the catalyst for the violence that is spreading around the globe.
Would you also consider Israel as a bully? They killed Iranian generals and in reply Iran gave the most feeble and telegraphed face-saving attack that wouldnt cause any real harm.
I can’t believe how often this sentiment is repeated in the media. Launching 300 missiles and drones is not an attack meant to be intercepted! Russia does the same thing in Ukraine, except with 3 times less missiles and stills manages an over 50% hit rate. Iran had every reason to expect that their barrage would at least somewhat penetrate Israeli air defenses and inflict mass harm. In any other context, launching 300 projectiles at another country would be an act of immediate war. Killing an Iranian general in an ongoing proxy war is not.
Seriousely? You view Iran’s attack as simply a “humanitarian” show of force? Hezbollah started this conflict, Hezbollah is funded and supported by Iran. They killed over 1200 Israelis in October, raped and kidnapped victims, and even preformed executions of children in front of parents (note Israeli propaganda as THEY bragged about it).
And you think Iran was going for a face-saving attack that would not cause any harm…
Hamas, but yeah.
The Iranians planed, trained and financed everything.
Russia benefits from opening another front and encouraging the conflict. The attention is shifted from Ukraine to Israel and Ukraine gets less help. What Trump said is textbook Russian propaganda, I find it odd he said what benefits enemy – Russia. Is he a Russian asset? I don’t know answer to that, but I find his words a bit odd and against USA interest. He wants to withdraw from Nato(benefits Russia). He is destructive to USA manipulating one group against another(weaker USA benefits Russia). It is classical divide and rule military strategy. Is Russia pitting Iran against Israel? They seems to benefit the most if new long conflict is open and USA and Europe are drawn into war. Iran has its own imperialistic agenda and when relations between Jews and Muslims improved a bit the terror attack – act of war happened.
Brian could you nip this? Why am I reading this partisan rant? Russiagate continues…
Probably cos its true. From time to time the tree of liberty must be watered with the blood of patriots and tyrants. Trump seems suspiciously content to let it all wilt.
It may not be the most intelligent comment but I don’t believe in silencing those respectfully disagree with you.
Trump doesn’t need to be a Russian asset to have his opinions. Trump is “America First”. His view has always been, Why spend US dollars defending other countries? So, why spend US dollars defending Ukraine? Why spend US dollars defending those NATO countries who forever don’t spend enough on their own defense? Etc, etc.
Do you disagree then with US dollars defending Israel?
Agree that some NATO countries have not pulled their weight. German strategy with Putin was a mistake. Now that the threat is clear Germany and others recognise we are in a 1936 scenario and are scrambling to rearm.
But it doesn’t hurt being a Russian asset if you need their help winning an election. If you really want to be – America First – you are idiotic to break up an effective military alliance. World War 2 shows what isolationism renders. (I’m not a Russian troll or a MAGA head case and I approve this message.)
And the only country to ever income NATO article 5 is…..?
‘Why spend US dollars defending other countries’
I don’t know it’s what we have done since WW2, really WW1 shook the isolationist stance that we could do our own thing and be safe. The world is a network, and our order has depended on our position as a, and im gonna use Dugins own philosohy thalassic (well, transnational) trade polity. That means aid and trade, and world affairs deeply connects us to those beyond our borders. Look at Koreas economy, Taiwan, Japan, America plays an integral role (Esp as Europe has turned inwards).
Perhaps that’s another way of saying those who screech “America First”!, think only America exists, are idiots. The current GOP can’t take their head out of their ass, look around and notice “golly, it’s a big wide world out there”, w/more people and “stuff” out there I don’t want to leave my self-messaging Fox news or other right wing bubble to notice even exist.
What can you do about anyone more comfortable with staring at a wall, and to lazy or stupid to turn around and notice the whole world around them that exists? Some people are comfortable w/sticking their head up their ass. It’s a smell their familiar with. And they don’t have to learn anything.