January 02, 2017

Robotic ride sharing electric vehicles should create a perfect storm for accelerated elimination of combustion vehicle usage by 2030s

Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s forecast for EVs to displace about 8 million barrels a day of demand by 2035. That will rise to 13 million barrels a day by 2040, which amounts of about 14 percent of estimated crude oil demand in 2016, the London-based researcher said. Electric cars are displacing about 50,000 barrels a day of demand now, Wood Mackenzie said.

Boosting the displacement effect of electric cars will be the rise of robotic cars and ride sharing.

A robotic electric car could displace the usage of ten regular vehicles. This will also reduce the supply chain ramp-up burden. Instead of needing to make 2 billion electric vehicles, 200 million robotic ride sharing vehicles would have the same displacement effect. Only 80 gigafactories instead of 800 would be needed to generate the displacement effect,

Robotics, ridesharing and cheap batteries will create a perfect storm to nearly eliminate the usage combustion vehicles.

In 2014, Nextbigfuture already discussed the likelihood of a battery singularity Batteries (and electric engines) that replace gasoline (and combustion engines) but at lower lifetime costs have the potential to completely replace combustion engines. I believe the costs will be brought down and the factory construction and scaling of the supply chain will take until about 2025. We could get to 4 million electric cars per year by about 2020 and then to 50 million by 2025. Recent projections are that sales of electric vehicles (EVs) in the United States may not top one million until 2020, Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz said Thursday, showing purchases have fallen well below President Barack Obama's goal of reaching that number by 2015. There will be sales in China, rest of Asia and Europe. Accumulated electric vehicles sales will also increase the amount on the road.

Volvo, and a growing number of automakers, are taking you out of the equation entirely. Instead of developing autonomous vehicles that do their thing under most circumstances but rely upon you take the wheel in an emergency—something regulators call Level 3 autonomous capability—they’re going straight to full autonomy where you’re simply along the ride.

This could enable electric cars and trucks to displace nearly 100% of the usage of combustion vehicles as early as 2030.

Electric drones could accelerate the displacement of delivery trucks.

Lower cost vehicle miles from ride sharing robotic electric vehicles could increase the overall movement of people. ut a rapid explosion in ride sharing robotic vehicles could see a rise to 80% share for electric vehicle usage. Combustion vehicles could still be at 40% of todays usage if overall usage doubled or 60% if overall usage tripled.

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