Boeing has an airplane market outlook to 2033 The Current Market Outlook is Boeing’s long-term forecast of air traffic volumes and airplane demand. The forecast helps shape their product strategy and guide long-term business planning. They have shared the forecast with the public for more than 50 years to inform decisions by airlines, suppliers, and the financial community.
They start fresh every year, factoring the effects of current business conditions and developments into our analysis of the long-term drivers of air travel. The forecast details demand for passenger and freighter airplanes, both for fleet growth and for replacement of airplanes that retire during the forecast period. They also project the demand for passenger-to-freighter conversions.
Fuel is now the largest component of airline cost structure. This fact has spurred manufacturers to produce more efficient airplanes, such as the 787 and the 737 MAX, and encouraged airlines to optimize other cost and revenue centers to maintain profitability in the face of high fuel prices.
Network and fleet planning
Airline networks constantly evolve as airlines strive to compete effectively and grow efficiently in the dynamic air transport market. Key network growth strategies include the increase of frequencies, expansion into new markets, and development of hubs. Each of these strategies enables airlines to capture greater market share and serve a broader traffic base.
Frequency growth
Frequency is a key driver of network growth, particularly in the competition for business travelers. Daily service is crucial to gaining a foothold in a market. Established airlines can generate incremental market share by increasing frequencies because offering additional opportunities to fly makes an airline’s network more attractive to schedule- conscious business travelers. Increased frequency also boosts connectivity within hub networks, thereby multiplying the number of city pairs that can be linked. For example, over the past decade, increasing frequencies in existing markets has driven 60 percent of domestic market growth in China.
Frequency growth has begun to slow in some maturing networks as markets reach saturation, where nearly every available time slot is covered by nonstop flight options. In these networks, there is a modest trend toward increasing the number of available seats in particular markets by substituting a larger member of an airplane family for a smaller one. For example, airlines around the world are using larger 737-800 airplanes where 737-700 or 737-400 airplanes had served, as they leverage the versatility and efficiency of these fleets across stage lengths and maker types. Airlines are also boosting the seat count of existing airplanes by installing new- technology seats that require less room and so allow additional seat rows.
China’s current growth trend is expected to continue over the next 20 years, with passenger traffic increasing 6.9 percent and air cargo traffic increasing 6.7 percent annually. The majority of the growth, approximately 65 percent, will be within China. About 16 percent of the growth will be international traffic to destinations within the Asia Pacific region. The remaining 19 percent will be long-haul international traffic. To support this growth in demand, China will need 6,020 new airplanes valued at $870 billion.
China’s domestic market are shifting toward single-aisle airplanes.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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