India will take longer than ten years to have a China sized impact on many commodities

Australian Minister for Resources, Energy and Northern Australia has said the urbanisation of India and its swelling middle class will step in to fill the breach as China’s economic growth slows. India’s economy is 5 to 6 times smaller than China’s but for commodities India could start to step up some for certain commodities over a ten year outlook.

India might make up some gap for grain imports. However, India will take longer than ten years to make a China sized impact on metals and energy.

Though other resource-dependent economies such as Brazil and Canada were technically in recession last year, Australia continued to grow strongly, creating 300,000 jobs.

Chinese steel production is expected to be down year on year in 2015, according to our Head of Commodities Research at Macquarie Colin Hamilton, resulting in weaker demand for commodity bulk imports. At the same time, Indian demand is enjoying double digit growth rates, with the expectation that the ten year commodity outlook will begin to be driven by India, rather than China.

There is a world bank comparison and analysis of China and India’s impact on commodities.