# Global Solar and Wind has to increase by about five times to provide all of annual increase in electricity

Global solar power is projected to go from 500 TWh in 2018 to about 900 TWh in 2022.
Global wind power is projected to go from 1200 TWh in 2018 to about 1600 TWh in 2022.

This will cost over \$1 trillion in spending over 5 years.

800 TWh of new solar and wind electricity should be added from 2018 to 2022. The world will add about 3600 to 4000 TWh of electricity generation from 2018 to 2022.

The annual amount of Solar and Wind power generation added increased by ten percent from 2016 to 2017.

Most of the new power is being built in Asia. The power that is added in Asia will determine the energy production mix for new power for the world.

The world is spending about \$1.8 trillion per year on total energy buildout. Oil, natural gas and coal are the largest energy spending.

Fossil Fuel Subsidies are 6.5% of world GDP.

### 70 thoughts on “Global Solar and Wind has to increase by about five times to provide all of annual increase in electricity”

1. Global solar power is projected to go from 500 TWh in 2018 to about 900 TWh in 2022.” I Dispute this! This means that solar power is destined to grow a mere 80% in four years but the track show that the installed base has an annual average growth of about 60% per year in the past ten years!

2. Global solar power is projected to go from 500 TWh in 2018 to about 900 TWh in 2022.”” I Dispute this! This means that solar power is destined to grow a mere 80{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} in four years but the track show that the installed base has an annual average growth of about 60{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} per year in the past ten years!”””

3. 2017 to 2015 is TWO years if Math is not an opinion According to my calculator 2017-2015 = 2 not 3

4. Growth of photovoltais (installed base) 012 43% 2013 38% 2014 28% 2015 29% 2016[7] 32% 2017[8] 31% 2018F 27% A frikking fast growth, just saying

5. Even if the rate before 2012 (not included in the data shown ) was significantly higher than 43%, I admit that 60% average was little bit an overshoot, probably average growth has been around ~40%. What we can say for sure is that the average growth in teh past 3 years has NOT been 20% !! Growth has been (according to the page “groth of photovoltaics” of Wiki pedia ) 2015 -> 29% 2016 -> 32% 2017 -> 31% so an average well above the 20% you were saying (incorrect info from you, dear) And for this year a 27% estimated.

6. You seem not to be capable of understanding the difference between “increase of installed capacity” and “increase/decrease of rate of growth” and I am running out of patience and time to explain. SOrry

7. Precisely… It’s pathetic. Spews around random eco-nut nonsense brainlessly. Solar is nowhere and will be for a long while. We’d be best off building nuclear reactors as fast as we can, but won’t because of masses of eco nutjobs like him. So we will be burning more coal and oil and gas.

8. So much for your BS. Besides you showed a decreasing rate of growth, just yesterday. From 43 to 27% over a span of few years. You’re so full of sh*t and nonsense.

9. Dude, you are contradicting yourself! You said 60% GAGR past 10 years but the data you quote clearly doesn’t meet that figure. The data – from IRENA of all places (just reciting what they track, and they are the experts – if you have an issue go talk to them not me). IRENA says that total installed solar capacity was 224,345 MW in 2015 and 390,625MW in 2017. That is a 3 year CAGR of 20.30%. To be exact. Your attitude could be improved if you debate data rather than tell people they are liars. Or, learn math.

10. Cume growth 43% 38% 28% 29% 32% 31% 27% Check Wiki pedia global installed base growth trend is now 27%, last year it was 31% So it is false that ” the past 3 years has shown a 20% CAGR. ” Google Wiki at “growth of photovoltaics” and stop writing lies

11. You might be mistaking China’s CAGR, not globally. According to IRENA, Solar installed capacity has gone from 15,000MW to 130,000MW between 2008 and 2017, or a CAGR of 38%. However, the past 3 years has shown a 20% CAGR. The IEA report cited here makes an assumption of a flattening off given several factors. Overbuild in China, “already installed where possible” in Europe, lack of demand from utilities due to low prices, etc. On the other hand, new builds in the Gulf, so about a 12% CAGR. Typical for a maturing industry where overproduction and aggressive cost-subsidy is reducing demand to more normal levels. Lastly, there is a natural limit to what can be built that isn’t directly base load related, due to inadequate/expensive battery storage tech for large scale solar utilities.

12. 2017 to 2015 is TWO years if Math is not an opinion According to my calculator 2017-2015 = 2 not 3

14. Even if the rate before 2012 (not included in the data shown ) was significantly higher than 43{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} I admit that 60{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} average was little bit an overshoot probably average growth has been around ~40{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12}. What we can say for sure is that the average growth in teh past 3 years has NOT been 20{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} !! Growth has been (according to the page groth of photovoltaics”” of Wiki pedia ) 2015 -> 29{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} 2016 -> 32{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} 2017 -> 31{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} so an average well above the 20{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} you were saying (incorrect info from you”””” dear) And for this year a 27{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} estimated.”””

15. You seem not to be capable of understanding the difference between increase of installed capacity”” and “”””increase/decrease of rate of growth”””” and I am running out of patience and time to explain. SOrry”””

16. Precisely…It’s pathetic. Spews around random eco-nut nonsense brainlessly. Solar is nowhere and will be for a long while. We’d be best off building nuclear reactors as fast as we can but won’t because of masses of eco nutjobs like him. So we will be burning more coal and oil and gas.

17. So much for your BS.Besides you showed a decreasing rate of growth just yesterday. From 43 to 27{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} over a span of few years. You’re so full of sh*t and nonsense.

18. Dude you are contradicting yourself! You said 60{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} GAGR past 10 years but the data you quote clearly doesn’t meet that figure. The data – from IRENA of all places (just reciting what they track and they are the experts – if you have an issue go talk to them not me). IRENA says that total installed solar capacity was 224345 MW in 2015 and 390625MW in 2017. That is a 3 year CAGR of 20.30{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12}. To be exact. Your attitude could be improved if you debate data rather than tell people they are liars. Or learn math.

20. You might be mistaking China’s CAGR not globally. According to IRENA Solar installed capacity has gone from 15000MW to 130000MW between 2008 and 2017 or a CAGR of 38{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12}. However the past 3 years has shown a 20{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} CAGR. The IEA report cited here makes an assumption of a flattening off given several factors. Overbuild in China already installed where possible”” in Europe”” lack of demand from utilities due to low prices etc. On the other hand new builds in the Gulf so about a 12{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} CAGR. Typical for a maturing industry where overproduction and aggressive cost-subsidy is reducing demand to more normal levels. Lastly there is a natural limit to what can be built that isn’t directly base load related”” due to inadequate/expensive battery storage tech for large scale solar utilities.”””

21. Why exclude China? Why China – hater?

22. Never use Wiki, you ought to know that. Quote their sources. So I did the work for you thank you very much. “your” data comes from solarpowereurope.org, global outlook report. If you took the time to read it (I did and do since I invest in renewables), you’ll see that if you take out China, the additional global solar PV installed base was 33Gw in 2015, 42Gw in 2016 and 46Gw in 2017. Ie a decent jump (ex-China) of 22% and only 9.13% between 2016-17. That is YOUR source. If you want to rely on Chinese production of PV’s as some kind of measure of “success”, then let’s debate that. Get your facts straight and we can have an informed debate.

23. Are you trying to be difficult? 2015 is one year. 2016 is two years. 2017 is three years. One, two, three. Your calculator must need new batteries!

24. Maybe he’s figuring in all the “man made” global warming LOL.

25. Wind/solar…all pie in the sky. Yeah, when the wind is blowing or the sun is shining it’s nice to have as a BACKUP, but the storage & transmission is a pain. Plus, you can’t plan for INSTANT needs like you can with a coal/water/gas/nuclear plant. Have higher demand, just crank up the generators. If it is at night, or the wind isn’t blowing, kind of hard to use those.

26. Never use Wiki you ought to know that. Quote their sources. So I did the work for you thank you very much. your”” data comes from solarpowereurope.org”” global outlook report. If you took the time to read it (I did and do since I invest in renewables) you’ll see that if you take out China the additional global solar PV installed base was 33Gw in 2015″” 42Gw in 2016 and 46Gw in 2017. Ie a decent jump (ex-China) of 22{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} and only 9.13{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} between 2016-17. That is YOUR source. If you want to rely on Chinese production of PV’s as some kind of measure of “”””success”””””””” then let’s debate that. Get your facts straight and we can have an informed debate.”””

27. Are you trying to be difficult? 2015 is one year. 2016 is two years. 2017 is three years. One two three. Your calculator must need new batteries!

28. Maybe he’s figuring in all the man made”” global warming LOL.”””

29. Wind/solar…all pie in the sky. Yeah when the wind is blowing or the sun is shining it’s nice to have as a BACKUP but the storage & transmission is a pain.Plus you can’t plan for INSTANT needs like you can with a coal/water/gas/nuclear plant.Have higher demand just crank up the generators.If it is at night or the wind isn’t blowing kind of hard to use those.

30. Said the global warming denier and solar energy hater. What` s next? Babies are born under trees?

31. Primarily you…

32. According to China’s own solar energy society, about 30% of the power generated by solar is not even connected to the grid. Not generating electricity. And there are plans to do so, but nothing yet. The grid infrastructure cost is magnitudes bigger than making solar “farms”. About 20% of their wind energy is not connected. The place where there is wind (Gobi) is not connected. The plans to connect them, they figure, will take about 10 years. By then, most of the wind inventory will be obsolete (the axial bearings will the shot), and the cheap PV’s will be degraded. That’s why any serious discussion of renewables needs to exclude China.

33. Sure the whole world is investing heavily in nuclear but nobody understand anything except you, Mr. Einstein, who do not even fatho the concept of “energy storage

34. No The growth grom 2015 to 2017 is growth in two years Growth from 2015 to 2016 and growth from 2016 to 2017 Your brain needs new batteries too

35. So sad to see in this science-based forum so many anti-science nuts. Really

36. Said the global warming denier and solar energy hater. What` s next? Babies are born under trees?

37. Primarily you…

38. Why exclude China? Why China – hater?

39. No The growth grom 2015 to 2017 is growth in two years Growth from 2015 to 2016 and growth from 2016 to 2017 Your brain needs new batteries too

40. So sad to see in this science-based forum so many anti-science nuts. Really

41. I do not see any hard link here? Any evidence of waht you saying? Where is there written that it will take ten years? Go to Wiki “solar panel power in China” in 2017 almost 2% of all the electricity produced in China came from solar And you want to exclude China GOOD GRIEF!

42. I do not see any hard link here? Any evidence of waht you saying? Where is there written that it will take ten years? Go to Wiki solar panel power in China”” in 2017 almost 2{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} of all the electricity produced in China came from solar And you want to exclude China GOOD GRIEF!”””

43. Depends on how tall the trees are compared to the paternity ward at the hospital.

44. Depends on how tall the trees are compared to the paternity ward at the hospital.

45. Rather, solar capacity has grown 47% annually from 2007 to 2017, but the last four years, only 30%. However, wind power growth went semi-linear (same installations every year) around 2009. There is every reason to believe solar will go the same way this year or next. Forecasters tend to agree. That being said, I’d agree 900 TWh is way too low. Capacity should go from 400 GW in 2017 to 1000 GW in 2022 according to mainstream forecasts, or a factor of 2.5. Generation was at 442 TWh in 2017 so multiplying that also with 2.5 yields 1100 TWh. And I actually think 1300 TWh is plausible considering higher CF going forward when solar moves on from the atrocious CFs of the fixed-tilt installations in Europe and China. Also that the slowdown itself means a higher share of end-of-year capacity will be available for the full year.

46. Rather solar capacity has grown 47{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} annually from 2007 to 2017 but the last four years only 30{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12}. However wind power growth went semi-linear (same installations every year) around 2009. There is every reason to believe solar will go the same way this year or next. Forecasters tend to agree.That being said I’d agree 900 TWh is way too low. Capacity should go from 400 GW in 2017 to 1000 GW in 2022 according to mainstream forecasts or a factor of 2.5. Generation was at 442 TWh in 2017 so multiplying that also with 2.5 yields 1100 TWh. And I actually think 1300 TWh is plausible considering higher CF going forward when solar moves on from the atrocious CFs of the fixed-tilt installations in Europe and China. Also that the slowdown itself means a higher share of end-of-year capacity will be available for the full year.

47. Rather, solar capacity has grown 47% annually from 2007 to 2017, but the last four years, only 30%. However, wind power growth went semi-linear (same installations every year) around 2009. There is every reason to believe solar will go the same way this year or next. Forecasters tend to agree.

That being said, I’d agree 900 TWh is way too low. Capacity should go from 400 GW in 2017 to 1000 GW in 2022 according to mainstream forecasts, or a factor of 2.5. Generation was at 442 TWh in 2017 so multiplying that also with 2.5 yields 1100 TWh. And I actually think 1300 TWh is plausible considering higher CF going forward when solar moves on from the atrocious CFs of the fixed-tilt installations in Europe and China. Also that the slowdown itself means a higher share of end-of-year capacity will be available for the full year.

48. Depends on how tall the trees are compared to the paternity ward at the hospital.

49. I do not see any hard link here?
Any evidence of waht you saying?
Where is there written that it will take ten years?
Go to Wiki “solar panel power in China” in 2017 almost 2% of all the electricity produced in China came from solar
And you want to exclude China
GOOD GRIEF!

50. Said the global warming denier and solar energy hater.
What` s next? Babies are born under trees?

51. Primarily you…

52. According to China’s own solar energy society, about 30% of the power generated by solar is not even connected to the grid. Not generating electricity. And there are plans to do so, but nothing yet. The grid infrastructure cost is magnitudes bigger than making solar “farms”. About 20% of their wind energy is not connected. The place where there is wind (Gobi) is not connected. The plans to connect them, they figure, will take about 10 years. By then, most of the wind inventory will be obsolete (the axial bearings will the shot), and the cheap PV’s will be degraded.
That’s why any serious discussion of renewables needs to exclude China.

53. Sure the whole world is investing heavily in nuclear but nobody understand anything except you, Mr. Einstein, who do not even fatho the concept of “energy storage”

54. Why exclude China?
Why China – hater?

55. No
The growth grom 2015 to 2017 is growth in two years
Growth from 2015 to 2016 and growth from 2016 to 2017
Your brain needs new batteries too

56. So sad to see in this science-based forum so many anti-science nuts.
Really

57. Never use Wiki, you ought to know that. Quote their sources. So I did the work for you thank you very much. “your” data comes from solarpowereurope.org, global outlook report. If you took the time to read it (I did and do since I invest in renewables), you’ll see that if you take out China, the additional global solar PV installed base was 33Gw in 2015, 42Gw in 2016 and 46Gw in 2017. Ie a decent jump (ex-China) of 22% and only 9.13% between 2016-17. That is YOUR source. If you want to rely on Chinese production of PV’s as some kind of measure of “success”, then let’s debate that.

Get your facts straight and we can have an informed debate.

58. Are you trying to be difficult? 2015 is one year. 2016 is two years. 2017 is three years. One, two, three. Your calculator must need new batteries!

59. Maybe he’s figuring in all the “man made” global warming LOL.

60. Wind/solar…all pie in the sky. Yeah, when the wind is blowing or the sun is shining it’s nice to have as a BACKUP, but the storage & transmission is a pain.
Plus, you can’t plan for INSTANT needs like you can with a coal/water/gas/nuclear plant.
Have higher demand, just crank up the generators.
If it is at night, or the wind isn’t blowing, kind of hard to use those.

61. 2017 to 2015 is TWO years if Math is not an opinion
According to my calculator 2017-2015 = 2 not 3

62. Growth of photovoltais (installed base)
012 43%
2013 38%
2014 28%
2015 29%
2016[7] 32%
2017[8] 31%
2018F 27%

A frikking fast growth, just saying

63. Even if the rate before 2012 (not included in the data shown ) was significantly higher than 43%, I admit that 60% average was little bit an overshoot, probably average growth has been around ~40%.
What we can say for sure is that the average growth in teh past 3 years has NOT been 20% !!
Growth has been (according to the page “groth of photovoltaics” of Wiki pedia )
2015 -> 29%
2016 -> 32%
2017 -> 31%
so an average well above the 20% you were saying (incorrect info from you, dear)
And for this year a 27% estimated.

64. You seem not to be capable of understanding the difference between “increase of installed capacity” and “increase/decrease of rate of growth” and I am running out of patience and time to explain. SOrry

65. Precisely…
It’s pathetic. Spews around random eco-nut nonsense brainlessly. Solar is nowhere and will be for a long while. We’d be best off building nuclear reactors as fast as we can, but won’t because of masses of eco nutjobs like him. So we will be burning more coal and oil and gas.

66. So much for your BS.
Besides you showed a decreasing rate of growth, just yesterday. From 43 to 27% over a span of few years. You’re so full of sh*t and nonsense.

67. Dude, you are contradicting yourself! You said 60% GAGR past 10 years but the data you quote clearly doesn’t meet that figure. The data – from IRENA of all places (just reciting what they track, and they are the experts – if you have an issue go talk to them not me). IRENA says that total installed solar capacity was 224,345 MW in 2015 and 390,625MW in 2017. That is a 3 year CAGR of 20.30%. To be exact.

Your attitude could be improved if you debate data rather than tell people they are liars. Or, learn math.

68. Cume growth 43% 38% 28% 29% 32% 31% 27%
Check Wiki pedia global installed base growth trend is now 27%, last year it was 31%
So it is false that ” the past 3 years has shown a 20% CAGR. ”
Google Wiki at “growth of photovoltaics” and stop writing lies

69. You might be mistaking China’s CAGR, not globally. According to IRENA, Solar installed capacity has gone from 15,000MW to 130,000MW between 2008 and 2017, or a CAGR of 38%. However, the past 3 years has shown a 20% CAGR. The IEA report cited here makes an assumption of a flattening off given several factors. Overbuild in China, “already installed where possible” in Europe, lack of demand from utilities due to low prices, etc. On the other hand, new builds in the Gulf, so about a 12% CAGR. Typical for a maturing industry where overproduction and aggressive cost-subsidy is reducing demand to more normal levels. Lastly, there is a natural limit to what can be built that isn’t directly base load related, due to inadequate/expensive battery storage tech for large scale solar utilities.

70. “Global solar power is projected to go from 500 TWh in 2018 to about 900 TWh in 2022.”
I Dispute this!
This means that solar power is destined to grow a mere 80% in four years but the track show that the installed base has an annual average growth of about 60% per year in the past ten years!