Theresa May Resigns and Banks Have 25-40% Odds for a No-Deal Brexit

Theresa May has announced that she will resign as Prime Minister.

The United Kingdom will either leave the EU with a transition deal, leave without a deal, or not leave at all.

Boris Johnson wants a harder EU divorce than May was proposing.

The EU has repeatedly said it will not rework the Withdrawal Treaty. The UK and the EU will have a confrontation before the scheduled departure date of Oct. 31.

U.S. bank JPMorgan has raised its probability of a no-deal Brexit to 25%. They think the most likely scenario is Boris Johnson will become prime minister and then there will be a parliamentary election. They believe there is a 60% chance the departure date is delayed from Oct 31.

BNP Paribas sees a 40% probability of a no-deal Brexit.

Britain’s next national election is not due until 2022. An early election would be triggered if two-thirds of parliament’s 650 lawmakers vote in favor or a motion of no confidence in the government is passed by a simple majority of lawmakers and no party succeeds in winning the confidence of the House of Commons within 14 days.

22 thoughts on “Theresa May Resigns and Banks Have 25-40% Odds for a No-Deal Brexit”

  1. Not me, thats for sure.
    Sadly the country is full of people that are either racist, barely educated, or old and wishing for times past – and all of these are easily swayed by populist xenophobic rhetoric with some sprinkled lies about NHS money to sweeten the pot

  2. Substitute UK for the UK government please, as a native Brit I feel nothing in common with these ‘people’ that control so many aspects of our life, yet are profoundly removed from the realities of it by their upbringing, personal circumstances and wealth.

    They don’t see British people, they just see unwashed plebs getting in their way of selling pieces of UK infrastructure away to companies, and taking their compensation when they leave office.

  3. Good riddance to bad rubbish. The only problem is the UK will most likely now have to put up with Bojo the clown

  4. It was explained to me by a Brit I met in a pub here in the LA area that the original Brexit vote was the result of general public believing no one could possibly be mad or crazy enough to vote a ‘yes’ on Brexit, that many people didn’t turn out to vote, considering it a sure thing. He claimed the people that did vote were ‘from the sticks’. How accurate is this explanation of a rural vs urban vote? I haven’t seen any such analysis on the news.

  5. JPMorgan and BNP Paribas are clueless. Brexit is a negative-sum game theory play. That means the probability of final Brexit and no Brexit are equally between 0 or 100%. In other words, no need to bother trying to predict. It’s a known unknown. Human behavior “feels” that there will be (and needs to be) a “chance” of a certain outcome – mostly driven by biases. Therein the uselessness of trying to predict the outcome.

  6. The UK owes Ms May a great debt. Her passive aggressive refusal carry out her duty to proceed with the voter mandated BrExit has demonstrated as nothing else could, that the political class is corrupt, and must be thrown out of office. Doubtless, UKIP will fare well in the next election.

  7. “We used to run the world once…”

    Then consider this all a small down payment on your eternal penance.

  8. I’m pretty sure this would not happen; there is no such spite.

    The UK is like the little bully boy in elementary school who prevents his class mates from learning because of his continuous disrupting behaviour. This boy -like all children- is forced to be at school, but he really doesn’t want to be there. He’d rather be at home playing video games.
    Are we angry with this extremely annoying boy? No, we are not. If anything, we feel sad for him, because we know he’ll grow up to be a social outcast, a jobless unhappy man.
    For a while, we have tried to keep him in school for his own good. We even let him play video games at school, to make him feel better. But his behaviour did not improve and now it is getting out of hand. The other children deserve a safe learning environment too! Now that it has come to this, we will actually be relieved when he finally leaves. And CERTAINLY we won’t vote against it!

  9. Though… previous “world runners” include Italy, Greece and Mongolia so the UK is not looking TOO bad by comparison

  10. There was never going to be a deal. Any one of the 27 EU members could veto a deal. And plenty of them would do it out of Spite.

  11. Interesting times ahead!

    (something that could have also been said about the invasion of Poland, Pearl Harbor and 9/11).

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