Theresa May Resigns and Banks Have 25-40% Odds for a No-Deal Brexit

Theresa May has announced that she will resign as Prime Minister.

The United Kingdom will either leave the EU with a transition deal, leave without a deal, or not leave at all.

Boris Johnson wants a harder EU divorce than May was proposing.

The EU has repeatedly said it will not rework the Withdrawal Treaty. The UK and the EU will have a confrontation before the scheduled departure date of Oct. 31.

U.S. bank JPMorgan has raised its probability of a no-deal Brexit to 25%. They think the most likely scenario is Boris Johnson will become prime minister and then there will be a parliamentary election. They believe there is a 60% chance the departure date is delayed from Oct 31.

BNP Paribas sees a 40% probability of a no-deal Brexit.

Britain’s next national election is not due until 2022. An early election would be triggered if two-thirds of parliament’s 650 lawmakers vote in favor or a motion of no confidence in the government is passed by a simple majority of lawmakers and no party succeeds in winning the confidence of the House of Commons within 14 days.