Ark Invest Gives Tesla 25% Chance of Being Worth Over $3 Trillion by 2024

Ark Invest has over $11 billion under management and they are huge Tesla bulls. Ark has a new analysis that projects Tesla could have a $7000 per share value by 2024 which would mean the whole company would be worth over $1.2 trillion. The $7000 per share is a combination of ten widely different scenarios.

They give a 25% chance that Tesla will be worth $1500 per share. This is about 2.5 times the current value and Tesla would be worth $300 billion. Tesla would be selling 3.2 million cars in 2024 in this scenario.

There give a 50% chance that Tesla will be worth $2700 per share. This would have Tesla value at $500 billion.

At $500 billion, Nextbigfuture notes that Tesla would be twice as big as Toyota. Tesla would have massive capability to invest in more factories. Ark Invest does not have the more bullish than 50% scenario where Tesla reduces factory costs and grows electric vehicle market share to perhaps double current levels.

Electric cars have a skateboard with all of the batteries and motors. Tesla will be able to add many different models onto the skateboard for the cybertruck.

If the robo-taxi scenario does not arrive then the number of cars and trucks in the world could increase.

There is a 25% chance that Tesla will be worth over $15,000 per share. This would mean Tesla would be worth over $3 trillion.

Nextbigfuture believes that Tesla could have scenarios where they make a lot more factories by 2024. The factory production could be accelerated if Tesla can buy more factories from other automakers.

There is also the scenario where Tesla licenses technology to other carmakers and gets per unit cash without having to pay for factories.

There are also scenarios where the semi-truck business and autonomous trucks becomes huge. The autonomous trucks can be simpler than fully autonomous cars. They need autonomous highway driving and platooning. Platooning is where trucks can safely closely follow a lead truck. Platooning enables trucks to get closer to railroad efficiency.

There are cases where the robo-taxi business is not as good as the bull case but is still very good. There are also the cases where robo-taxi take 2-4 years longer to fully mature. Tesla would then reach $15K+ per share around 2026-2028.

They do not look at the cases where the solar roof and home energy storage business becomes as large or larger than the electric car business.

NOTE: Author of this summary and commentary, Brian Wang of Nextbigfuture owns shares of Tesla