The Washington IHME models are being adjusted downwards for COVID-19.
The US death estimates were over 90,000 and are back to 81,000. There are hopes that the lower range of 40,000 to 65,000 deaths could be achieved.
The adoption of mask-wearing by most Americans should reduce the spread and improve the numbers.
Europe is now forecast to have about 150,000 deaths in this first wave of COVID-19.
Current trajectories suggest a total of 151,680 COVID-19 deaths could occur during the epidemic’s first wave for EEA countries. The United Kingdom, Italy, Spain, and France are among those with the highest predicted cumulative deaths from COVID-19 during this first wave.
SOURCES- University of Washington IHME
Written By Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
89 thoughts on “USA And Europe COVID-19 Curves Flattening”
Its a virus, malaria is a protozoan. Different kingdoms. As far as the drug working, that hasn’t been proven yet.
There is a lot of work to be done. I would like to hear that the different governments of the world are funding the effort.
Oh, this is some little “my local political dispute” thing that you’ve got going in your country. Whatever. The rest of the world knows it started in China.
I think you pretty well nailed it: “There’s not enough money in the world to keep doing what we are doing.”
It doesn’t have to be a conspiracy, if you hate the administration you do your part, it’s obvious it doesn’t even need to be said.
No, but referring to it as “CCP virus” certainly is. It’s all about laying blame on China as nothing of any worth is done by Trump.
Rebel once, rebel forever.
Yea honestly for most of Africa and many other places this is just a minor new worry.
Hot and wet actually. Low humidity drys out the mucus that is naturally inside of your lungs. Infection rates are higher in low humidity environments.
correct, you notice I didn’t include Brazil. testing, and more testing……
16,000 cases in Brazil. 6 weeks ago there were no cases at all in S. America.
Snort! Your own video counters your argement in the first 15 seconds!
Says the actions being taken to suppress the pandemic are the reason to expect lower deaths!
A counterfactual logical fallacy is a statement of what would have happened without any supporting evidence.
There is plenty of evidence supporting how badly things would have gone without the various countermeasures.
New York delayed school closings until they had about 1000 confirmed cases, and shelter-in-place until they had over 8000. Look at them now – almost 4x the per-capita cases of Michigan, which didn’t do a great job either but at least got their stay-at-home in place at ~1000 cases.
And NY is now at ~15x the per-capita cases of California, which implemented strong measures much quicker than NY.
Indians are not all skinny… bean + butter diet makes People diabetic…Look at the Mexican… same thing…
maybe they already had herd immunity…
Hmm so am I. My wife got “mild” coronavirus but I got zero symptoms…
And all to save a ‘mere’ ~4500 extra deaths a month.
(Based on highway deaths per capita being down by a factor of ~2.5 since the 1960’s.)
Given that over 20% of NY’s police are out sick already, if not for the shutdowns we might by now have close to the same number of people out of work sick as have been idled by shutdowns. We were never going to get out of this without economic disruption.
Cases were growing at ~35% a day just 3 weeks ago, now its at 9% (still not great). US cases and deaths would likely be 10x (140K dead) now if not for the measures taken. And likely heading quickly to 1M+.
Not that we currently have any certain way to avoid eventually getting there – this is ALL about delaying deaths in hopes of a vaccine or proven treatment.
CDC statistics are alt-right now?
I can’t keep up. I thought CDC was part of the vast left wing conspiracy as recently as yesterday.
Or were they deep-state? Or an Iranian front? Is there a list somewhere?
How much DO we spend on preventing auto accidents?
What % of road spending (~$200B per year) is driven by safety considerations? Half?
What is the cost of all those airbags, ABS, ASC, Traction control, controlled crumple zones, mandatory lighting requirements etc. etc. on every new car sold? Say $2-3000/car? That’s another $45B per year.
What’s the cost of yearly safety checks for all vehicles? Mandatory driver training for dozens to hundreds of hours each (depending on state), children learning nursery rhymes about how to safely walk across the road, a huge % of police resources being traffic control…
You can’t point to the traffic toll and pretend that this does not come with vast, continuous, intrusive efforts to reduce it.
I hope that’s it. I’m immunized against TB.
Conspiracies always involve as many as necessary for the believer to justify his beliefs. If private hospitals, the press or your county representatives are required to be a part of the conspiracy to make it work, then they are part of the conspiracy .
If you have a problem with my reasoning, that obviously mean you are one of the conspirators.
Definitely flattening. My county provides handy charts for number hospitalized and number in the ICU. Numbers are stable for the last five days.
Unless the conspiracy involves the private hospitals as well as the press that hates the current administration.
Oh look, alt-right rhetoric from the self-important “me”. What a surprise.
I feeeeel HAPPYYY! I feeeel HAPP–OOF…
It is because testing is non-existent in India. We’ll realize how many died after the pandemic has blown over. Also don’t sleep on exponentially transmitted viruses, this week may be okay but at the end of the month it’ll be astronomical.
The problem with this estimate is that its got a end date somewhere, and doesnt take into account that this is not going to disappear. Its going to stick around, barring a vaccine or cure. And because of that once we re-open things its going to keep infecting folks. And if we open up too early (which seems probable given this administrations values), we will have a second wave of this.
Just like the spanish flu pandemic, the majority of people who died did not do so in the first wave.
We do have a indication of how fatal it is. Cherry picking the cruise ship information is unwise. Those older folks tend to be the healthier ones. But we do have a lot of data. And for older folks it tends to be double digit fatality rates, so cherry picking one more likely healthier population is not conducive to good data.
And weve seen it hit 8% in areas where hospitals get overwhelmed. the 1% figure is for places with enough hospital equipment. And its based on a ton more data then a cruise ship, as such its fairly reliable
Please note, this will kill only as much as the flu BECAUSE of the efforts by our governors. Not because this was comparable tot he flu. Without the lockdowns we would have millions dead.
One theory is that India has universal mandatory BCG vaccination. Just like Brazil, which is flattening the curve at less than 1000 deaths…
Some studies have shown increased resistance to Covid19 in people with BCG vaccination.
More asymptomatic people, more mild cases and less people dying.
Dont forget other two things:
Population age pyramid
Population of smokers
Flu is worse but we are all desensitized to old news like the flu. We prefer to go into hysterics over new news like not-from-china coronavirus.
A lot of your commenters are positively ghoulish.
Very interesting point. Something must be different about population susceptibility.
All models are wrong. Wait six months and watch the reruns.
Their old predictions were overestimating bed requirements and deaths. All models are wrong.
Happy to hear it.
We have no idea of the real fatality ratio for infected persons. The cruise ship information and Iceland suggest the ratio for old people is about 1%. For total population it may be much lower.
Yes, flu is a big issue. Maybe this provides prospective that we could do much more there. There is so evidence to support that coming in with reduced flu as well. That said, as above from another poster, we have some flu immunity from prior years with people catching it. For this we don’t. Next there isn’t an option currently for a vaccine. Wash hands – sure. Social distance – sure. But one can’t get a shot yet. Lastly for all the current countries hit, it is 10X worse than a regular flu.
That doesn’t take away from economic issues causing widespread harm as well. It’s already starting. We need better plans and control with testing to slow restart sectors of economy.
CCP virus created in a lab — that CCP virus?
Are those 70k beds the existing capacity? Hospitals are of course not running at 0% capacity to support corona virus. Any large influx in most hospitals will overwhelm.
A forecast is never the truth. But social distancing seems to be working and has reduce the number of expected deaths. But the virus isn’t done with most of the country yet, in fact, it has just got started.
What is going to happen once it levels off it will continue to kill people at a much lower rate until there is a vaccine in a year or two.
Give it time.
I don’t believe for a second that the US is flattening off. Running out of tests, perhaps.
When a cold is going around and you don’t catch it you probably congratulate yourself. But the reason you did not catch it is probably because you had it 5 years ago. This thing no one has had. That means there are not a bunch of people out there who had whatever 5 years ago, or something close 8 years ago… That means almost everyone you come in contact with has it or just got over it. No amount of the usual cold avoidance stuff is going to work.
Doing nothing means not tracking the deaths, infection rate, squat. We don’t really track flu. Hospitals just report the death of kids. Officials guesstimate the rest. If they did that with this…you catch almost zero deaths. Nothing reported. Media has nothing to say. No one does anything any differently and by the time the hospitals are overrun it is too late…they can do little. There you go 2.4m dead.
2.4m would be a best case not a worst case in that CDC/Federal Government do nothing scenario. 12.8m is the extreme case: 4% of 320m. And even that may not be extreme enough. We are not a healthy nation or a nation of young people.
NY is testing like mad. And they have 3.86% of positives dead. And the bulk of those cases haven’t been around long enough to result in many deaths.
yeah. With 400k malaria deaths and 500k HIV deaths p.a. in Africa, 200k TB deaths p.a. in India, just to name a few killers, WuhanFlu gets lost in the grand scheme of things. The entire book of infectious and communicable diseases was written with developing countries in mind.
Apparently you lack the ability to understand what that means. I’d explain it to you, but I’m out of crayons.
Not NOTHING, just not shutting down the economy. Should we shut things down for a bad flu season? There’s not enough money in the world to keep doing what we are doing. Social distancing, not shaking hands, staying away from those who are most at risk etc are all reasonable things to do. For example, we are rushing to get all these new ventilators made, and the need for them will have completely passed by the time they arrive! 90% of people who end up on those machines are dying anyway. One model showed as of two days ago that NY was short 12k hospital beds. In fact, they have an excess of 70k beds! Why is the model not updated to reflect the facts rather than fear mongering? The model is still not updated with new data on the fly. It’s BS.
US CDC estimates 24000-63000 have died so far this year from A/H1N1 flu in the US alone. We didn’t panic on that one. No masks, no social distancing etc. That flu strain is associated with the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic. Anybody talking about that dummkopf? It is overblown. Stringent recommendations for those at risk, moderate ones for those less at risk. People would still die, but that’s life. We don’t all drive tanks to avoid car deaths, and 3100 people die each month from auto accidents. Do you cry yourself to sleep over that? 300k die from non-boating drownings, like bathtubs and such. Do you curl into your fetal position and whimper at those deaths every day?
Yes, uneducated seems correct.
That is called a counterfactual. We did do those things, so the contrary argument can’t be proved, but I will still say it would NEVER have happened. The “we did something” is a bogus argument that implies individuals would have done NOTHING on their own. Really? People are that dumb in your world? I don’t shake hands with others when my kids are sick. I don’t touch other’s stuff when I’m sick. See how that works. Nobody from the CDC had to tell me how to behave. So, your 2.4 million deaths are a farce. Anyway, you’re cherry-picking the number of deaths too. That 2.4M is the high side on ONE model. Why not use the lower number? Back on March 17th I posted a video, which I will again, that explains why these models are wrong and always have been. You are an alarmist with little commonsense!
People forget just how brutal life is in the third-world. Lots of ways to die, this is just one more. Kinda like the U.S. 80 years ago.
Face masks are one of the items that can help flatten the curve if worn by all.
In Malaysia almost 100% do now and the numbers of new cases has flattened.
From Malaysia we can organise to export 10,000 reusable face masks per day right now and scale up weekly to increase the quantity to the US.
These can be couriered to most major US centres direct and reach there in 6 to 7 days
The design of the mask
1. Allows good space below the nose making breathing easier
2. Has a metal rod at the top to mould the mask to the nose closing of all the air gaps
3. Has choice of elastic to go round the ears or a lace to be slipped over the head and have one tie at the back
4. The mask is machine washable
5. Has 3 sizes for children up to adult men
6 Has different colours for people to match their dress
The reasons why reusable masks should be used are:
1. If we use disposable masks it creates another problem – massive increase in waste which our poor planet cannot afford and the waste would be contaminated with the virus.
2. Reusable masks have major gaps where the air comes in
3. Constant purchase of single use face masks is also costly.
We can supply these delivered to most major cities at a very low price of US$ 1.50 per mask for a minimum 1,000 masks per shipment.
I have no idea how to get these to the common person in the US.
Please help with suggestions
That is what I was thinking.
New cases seems to be trending down but deaths will climb fast as that lags the active cases total. Probably by about 10 days.
This could also be an artifact of delayed but now intense testing. We could be months from the real peak. We won’t know until the deaths per day starts a decent decline. Which hopefully will be soon.
Lead exposure (mostly in earlier decades but effecting current health) or just ordinary obesity in the more developed nations would be my top explanation candidates, if rates and deaths did not explode.
Yes, there is a foothold. I said it has taken longer. Hopefully, it does not mater, and there is some other factor protecting them. If there isn’t, it could be a disaster.
In the US, if we had done nothing there would have likely been 2.4m deaths. That is a lot more than a bad flu season…unless you are talking Spanish flu. And you still have to hospitalize. And if there is no Federal assistance to pay for that, insurance companies will collapse, and hospitals.
And there still could be 2.4m deaths just drawn out. We need more than the ventilators the Governors keep talking about. We need ECMO machines and advanced ECMO machines: https://www.draper.com/news-releases/draper-develops-artificial-lung-technology-treat-patients-suffering-short-term
And we need “human challenge studies” for vaccines to accelerate their development: https://www.futurity.org/human-challenge-study-coronavirus-vaccine-2324142-2/
And we need time to evaluate medications and other treatments so lives can be saved.
I suppose the economic stimulus stuff could have been skipped. But unemployment would be perhaps 5x worse than it will be. There is no cheap way out. And if they refused all virus patients at the hospitals, and forced people to work, then the deaths would be 10m+.
There are the could-haves and should-haves that could have prevented this without an economic shutdown or a more limited shutdown, but there is no turning back the clock.
India has been implementing a lockdown just like the developed countries have. Unfortunately, certain sects are blatantly defying lockdown orders due to their belief that the virus is merely the will of Allah:
No organization, money, testing, therapy. In systems where viruses are looked at as a minor worry, comparatively.
I don’t see any indication that any organization, government or otherwise, can hide how little they know about the situation in any given location. Now, about the virus, itself, then seeing information about research popping up every so often, it appears we know quite a bit more than we did even a few weeks ago. So, yay for that. If it helps flatten the worldwide curve, then it’s helpful. But, we so far have yet to find a medical solution other than hygiene and discipline of distance that helps. Which is crappy, but it could have been worse.
As I’ve said, it would be IMPOSSIBLE to hide the sick and the dead.
We are being told this virus is infecting and killing people at a horrendous rate. By now the whole world knows what the symptoms of COVID19 are. We’d be seeing millions of posts from these countries on social media about how their governments were turning a blind eye to their suffering. Yet we haven’t.
Well, what is it then?
Please put down the bong. try again.
Sorry – too early?
CART MASTER: Bring out your dead!
CUSTOMER: Here’s one.
CART MASTER: Nine pence.
DEAD PERSON: I’m not dead!
CART MASTER: What?
CUSTOMER: Nothing. Here’s your nine pence.
DEAD PERSON: I’m not dead!
CART MASTER: ‘Ere. He says he’s not dead!
CUSTOMER: Yes, he is.
DEAD PERSON: I’m not!
CART MASTER: He isn’t?
CUSTOMER: Well, he will be soon. He’s very ill.
DEAD PERSON: I’m getting better!
CUSTOMER: No, you’re not. You’ll be stone dead in a moment.
CART MASTER: Oh, I can’t take him like that. It’s against regulations.
DEAD PERSON: I don’t want to go on the cart!
CUSTOMER: Oh, don’t be such a baby.
CART MASTER: I can’t take him.
DEAD PERSON: I feel fine!
CUSTOMER: Well, do us a favor.
CART MASTER: I can’t.
CUSTOMER: Well, can you hang around a couple of minutes? He won’t be long.
CART MASTER: No, I’ve got to go to the Robinsons’. They’ve lost nine today.
CUSTOMER: Well, when’s your next round?
CART MASTER: Thursday.
DEAD PERSON: I think I’ll go for a walk.
There is a foothold, just not tested and reported yet. This is also why the entire African continent is also – “mysteriously” – unaffected. Same thing in south east Asia, and most of Latin America.
For some “bizarre” reason, the cases reported only show up in places that can afford to test people.
you are asking the wrong question. Why hasn’t ALL of Africa, ALL of the subcontinent, ALL of south east Asia (except Malaysia/Singapore), ALL of northern South America, Argentina, and Mexico, not been affected – officially?
There is a very consistent and common thread here.
CDC estimates that flu has killed 24,000-63,000 this year, but we didn’t freak out about it. I know, CCP virus deaths just add to the burden, but let’s get some perspective.
For every argument made for why India has a low infection/death rate there is a counter argument for why it should have a high infection/death rate.
As more time passes, and we’re not seeing the expected surge in infections/deaths, I’m starting to think there is something funky going on here.
I noticed a slight down turn in the NY numbers over the last three days which is most noticeable when looked at logarithmically. I hope it isn’t a random blip and that it really is the start of a downward trend.
You expect doing nothing next time will achieve the same results as going to great lengths to mitigate the problem this time around?
So far, there have been more deaths from flu than Wuhan virus. In my state, 95% of people who are tested are symptomatic, but have something other than Wuhan. This whole thing is overblown by gigantic proportions. My uneducated guess is that it will end up being a very bad flu season event. Things like this are always overestimated and things like this have become political ever since Katrina. Ebola anybody? Nobody blamed Eisenhower for the Asian Flu, and over 100K people died. But hey, let’s wreck the economy and tack on a few more trillion in debt. Get ready for devaluation and inflation my friends. That’s how this gets paid for!
Low obesity in India? There are a lot of malnourished folks too. That sword cuts both ways. The real answer is “NOBODY KNOWS”, yet.
Take one old person off the books all together, add 3 more with permanent serious lung damage who’ll need high medical expenses for the rest of their lives.
Not a net improvement
In my state, the number of new cases has collapsed in the last 3 days. Good news.
I don’t think the Indian climate (and current season/weather) is going to help. Probably need hot and dry, not, hot and wet.
Grandparents often serve as role models, especially when the parents are abusive people. Without them around children may mindlessly carry on abuse to another generation. Grandparents also often help with babysitting, allowing parents some quality time which is good for family stability.
Retirees also often volunteer their time doing constructive things.
Climate, diet, genes … some of the variables which might be preventing the spread of the virus. But on the other hand you have the close proximity, sanitation and personal hygiene factors working against you.
Compared to trillions of dollars spent? Microscopic.
This is 1000x the information we get on the spread of the flu.
Hard to say. The low 5% obesity, probably helps. The less body mass you have, the less oxygen you need. But it could just be delayed. Or, maybe the high exposure of lead in the West until recently has made Westerners more likely to die of the infection, perhaps just as a result of higher blood pressure, though there could be some other mechanism.
The most probable is that there are less rich Indians vacationing all over the world routinely than in Europe and the US. So it just takes longer for it to get a foothold. But with exponential growth, it probably is no more than a few weeks away from deaths in the thousands. Hopefully not.
The combination of hookworm and coronavirus is probably deadly, because hookworm takes the iron needed for healthy red blood cells, and that makes the lungs less effective, so greater vulnerability to inability to get enough oxygen in the blood from the lungs. Though India has far less cases of hookworm now than in the past.
I don’t like how little actual information we are seeing. The longer this goes on the more i begin to think they know damn little and are trying to hide it.
Indeed, that’s what I’ve been saying. Perhaps this week we’ll see.
It would be of some assistance in evaluating these models if they showed the actual number of beds and ventilators being used. The only graph that appears to track actual occurrences is the one charting the number of deaths.
Nor do they say what they changed in the model to pump out new estimates. Not horribly useful.
By now the virus should have decimated the population of India. Why hasn’t it?
reduced pension and medicare burden – too soon?
Comments are closed.