Forecasts of US Coronavirus Deaths Down to 60,000

The University of Washington IHME has reduced their forecast of US Coronavirus deaths are down to 60,000. The mid-range forecasts were over 90,000 last week and had started at about 82,000 two weeks ago. The number of coronavirus patients in hospital, ICU or needing ventilators has fallen even more dramatically.

There is now a forecasted need for only 16,000 ventilators.

The situation in New York is improving.

Nextbigfuture believes that directives and trends in the US and other places to wear masks in public is rapidly reducing the spread of the disease.

Walking in stores like Costco and supermarkets, the number of people wearing masks is about 60-80%. In the US, two weeks ago the numbers of people wearing masks were in the 10-30% range. Six weeks ago it was only 0-2% of people wearing masks in the USA.

SOURCES- Washington IHME
Written By Brian Wang,

27 thoughts on “Forecasts of US Coronavirus Deaths Down to 60,000”

  1. On death stats should be a must. Are people dying of the coronavirus or with it?

    Problem is we’re not being given any means to compare coronavirus stats against a control sample. For example I want to know how many people in their 70s with hypertension die when they contract a cold.

  2. They didn’t shut down their economy, they don’t believe in draconian social isolation measures.

  3. I see a lot of skeptics here, whats the word for someone who thinks of science more as a political phenomenon or a religion than a logical thought process?

  4. Was there any doubt?

    The irrational and the inept would have everyone believe the results are all natural and is unrelated to all the steps taken to mitigate the problem.

  5. What about Sweden? They have one of the best public healthcare systems in the world. You can’t compare India to Sweden

  6. I live in east bay and I can share anecdotal evidence of a flu like bug blowing through here in November/December 2019. It was the first time I caught the flu in years and I had a flu shot a few months prior.

  7. This topic has been discussed to death. I, for one, have somewhat shifted from “major news” to “new routine” mode (though personally, I’ve never claimed end-of-the-world to begin with). Maybe others have experienced a similar shift.

  8. Their current CFR is 3%, which is in line with the statistics elsewhere. But their big rise in cases is only two weeks old. It’s still early.

  9. point.

    Are they carrying out antibody tests in California? Will be interesting to see. What if they find a significant percent of the population already contracted the disease?!

  10. Where are the dead and dying in India?

    BTW, I pick on India because it has a large, densely packed population centers with poor sanitation. The same applies for other countries like Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Nigeria etc.

    I repeat, it will be too hard to hide the sick and dead. Something is not right here.

  11. Yep. California had 5-7k Chinese fly in each day until the ban. They instituted lockdowns only 2 days before NY. They should be ground zero for the disease, but they’re not.
    Because it already went through months ago and was thought to be early flu season.

  12. Or the model was initially based on wild assumptions and is getting corrected as facts become available.

    The whole point of distancing and masks has always been to spread the infections over more time, not to reduce total infections. Reduce the peak, not the area under the curve.

    The reduced area under the curve is because the covid never was as scary as initially modeled.

  13. Not enough panic in a mere 60,000 victims. The usual suspect commenters have gone missing. It’s always the end of the world with these people.

  14. Also, treatments rapidly improve at this time, so delay is good for more than avoiding crowded hospitals.

  15. I suppose the quarantining and distancing are working and helping the situation.

    Less infected >> less overwhelmed medical abilities >> better care >> less deaths. Without ignoring the obvious that less infected means less deaths directly.

  16. Covid deaths are most likely being overstated, possibly by a wide margin. Doctors are being instructed by the CDC to list Covid as cause of death when it may not be the case. Dying with Covid in your system is not the same as dying from Covid. It will be interesting to see how wrong the “experts” got this in the aftermath. The other problem with listening to “experts” is which ones do you listen to? There are studies showing significantly lower lower death rates and much higher infection rates than the studies used to fear monger. In my county we have over 600,000 population. Currently we have 0.0004% of the population officially showing up with Covid. Not a big deal. According to the Google tracking data and my own anecdotal observations, we have low compliance with the stay at home warnings in my state. I’ve never seen our Lowes busier. Gas stations are about the same as always. Highways have less traffic, but people are going out closer to home. People are self-interested and don’t want to get sick or die when the risk is more immediate, but fail at measuring longer term risk, ie smoking vs. fighting a bear. Without guv. intervention, people would take some level of precaution on their own. With suggestions, they will be more cautious. I’m not saying we should do nothing. I always use sanitizer in the winter so I don’t get flu and I get vaccinated. Most do something.

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