There have been three important eras for electric cars which are characterized by Tesla as the dominant EV maker. I will review the three main eras that have already occurred in electric cars and the next three major generations for EV vehicles.
Generation 1 : Roadster Era
There was the first generation Tesla Roadster period, which was the first electric vehicle to surpass gasoline vehicles on important features of performance. It cost about $110,000 and had a range of 244 miles. It was the main Tesla car from 2008 to 2011. About 1000 of them were sold before the Model S and ultimately about 2500 have been sold.
Generation 2 : Model S and Model X Era
From 2012Q3 to 2018Q1, the Model S and Model X were the top-selling Tesla vehicles. They cost in the range of $80,000 to 120,000. There were 300,000 cumulative Model S and Model X sales until Model 3 production surpassed Model S and Model X. Another 200,000 have been sold while Model 3 and Model Y has been the main car. The Model S and Model X are mainly 260 miles to 400-mile range vehicles.
Most of the sales of Model S and Model X have been in the $80,000 to $110,000 price range (after counting for the EV credits). The sales in the pre-Model 3 days had $5000-7000 in US government subsidies to consumers. These were able to dominate the higher end luxury car market and outsold the equivalent BMW, Mercedes and Porsche.
China emerged with volume EV sales in 2014. China passed the US and Europe for global EV sale market share in 2015 in unit volumes.
Generation 3: Model 3 and Model Y Era
From 2018Q1 to 2022, the Model 3 and Model Y will be the top-selling Tesla Vehicles. Cybertruck and a new $25,000 Model 2 vehicle will likely become the top sellers starting in 2023-2024. There will likely be about 4-6 million cumulative sales of Model 3 and Model Y. These were able to dominate the mainstream luxury car market and outsold the equivalent BMW, Mercedes and Lexus.
Most of Model S and Model X sales have been in the $42,000 to $60,000 price range.
Generation 4: Cybertruck and $25K Model 2 Era
At Tesla Battery day, they announced that a $25,000 would be introduced in 2024. There has been discussion about compact models specifically designed for Europe at Giga Berlin and China for Giga Shanghai. The Cybertruck will be introduced in 2021 but the lower cost and high volume $40,000 model will not appear until 2022. The $25,000 models will likely not appear until 2024 and will not ramp up until 2025. The Cybertruck pricing will be more competitive than the pricing of comparable regular trucks. The $25,000 vehicles would actually end up selling for $30,000 to 40,000. This would be 30% less than the price range of the Model S and Model X.
Generation 5: CyberSUVs, Small Cybertrucks, Small SUVs and $17K Compact EV Era
The next 30% drop in price and improvement in batteries will lead to 200+ mile range starting at $17,000 models will likely appear and ramp in 2026-2027. There are 100-mile range cars in the $10k price range now. Tesla and other makers will fill all of the car segments with EV models.
The actual pricing of most of the $17,000 Tesla models would be $20,000-30,000.
70% of US cars are SUVs and Trucks. Tesla will use the Cybertruck platform to create CyberSUVs and CyberVan models. They will be half the current prices of the Model X and the Model Y.
China and the Asian car markets are moving toward SUVs and higher prices.
Generation 6: High Volume Motorcycles, Triwheels for India, Vietnam and New EV Replacement of Used ICE Cars
The US has 41 million used car sales each year versus 17 million new car sales. The average price of used cars in the US in 2019 was $21,000 versus $37,000 for new vehicles. Globally there were about 102 million used car sales in 2019.
The next 30% drop in pricing around 2029-2030 would have cars that would start at $12,000 but would mostly sell in the $15,000-20,000 range. The pricing for $2000-4000 EV motorcycles would have two to three times the range of 80 mile EV motorcycles today.
There are about 60 million global annual motorcycles sales.
The combined sales of new cars, used cars and motorcycles is currently about 250 million each year and will be about 350 million in 2030. Reaching a predominantly EV fleet of cars, trucks and buses will involve replacing the over 3 billion ICE vehicles in 2030. Even if most of the annual new vehicles are EVs by 2030, there needs be a further double or triple of volumes to rapidly replace the whole global fleet of transportation vehicles.
SOURCES- Tesla, Wikipedia
Written By Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com