Here are highlights from Elon Musk’s recent panel discussion in Germany. Elon indicated that Gigaberlin could reach a production of 500,000 cars per year around the end of 2022.
This would suggest a Gigaberlin production ramp of 60k-100k in 2021, 240k to 330k in 2022 and 500k in 2023.
By inference, Giga Texas is only a few months behind Giga Berlin so the production from Texas will be similar.
Elon Musk believes all education even up to the graduate and post-doctorate level can be delivered online.
Most energy will be renewable solar, wind, hydro, geothermal and nuclear. Solar and wind will need to be supported with large battery storage. Elon is fine with nuclear at sites without natural disaster risks.
Individuals will have solar, personal batteries and home charging for electric vehicles.
There will be doubling of world electricity usage and demand when all transportation goes electric.
The transition to electric planes will seriously start in about five years. There will be electric jets starting in 2025. There will be and already have some electric propeller planes.
SOURCE- Pioneer’s Talk that happened Before the Axel Springer 2020, Highlights from Easy And Free Youtube channel
Written By Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
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30 thoughts on “Elon Musk Estimates End of 2022 For GigaBerlin to Reach 500,000 Cars Per Year”
That central management (and more particularly HEMS systems playing nice with utilities and virtual power producers bidding to the ISO's) is tough to pull off with a distributed heterogeneous public grid. However, that might change when most of those vehicles are under direct management by a central company as part of a robotaxi fleet, and the charging is handled at semidedicated facilities.
Well Boeing, in a very MBA manner, did set up the east coast assembly facilities deliberately to break the back of the unions on the west coast at their existing factories though. Though Boeing started to go bad when McD execs infiltrated, which was prior to the HQ move.
Tesla has been trying their best to not outsource as much as possible, as they see that as the end of engineering led development.
Personal state income tax in Texas is 0%. He started prepping for his tax residency a while back, he met his compensation performance targets and has a huge pay day coming.
What do you believe is Tesla's value, Goldman Sachs' price target is $780 & JPMorgan Chase's is $90.
i'm not an electrical guy, but: small SS battery, light car, transformer =
20kWh day-day battery, 10min, 500 VAC = 250A-ish
eh? eh? not a home, but malls and city chargers seems possible.
maybe a separate 40kWh range extender for bigger vehicles.
Vboring is talking about the location of the factories, with Boeing the issue was the location of the headquarters.
Trouble is, he does not have the right Space plan!
Other process being D-T or p-B.
Lunar He3 isn't practical. It is a Space Fanboi Meme and not much more.
That's what I keep saying- Musk should take the Tesla money and get back to outer space where there is no competition and whole industries are yet to be made.
How much ROI is left for each $ put in to Tesla at this point? SpaceX is still just scratching the surface.
Thigh magnetic field fusion is looking really good though. Check out MIT's technical track and also "Commonwealth fusion". I think it's feasible. If I could, I would invest in "Commonwealth fusion", but there is no way at this time.
Well, of course nobody has that kind of power at home, I meant that there are no public chargers with that kind of power. Toyota has no supercharger network and even if they did, they would need some kind of miraculous new generation supercharger to charge in 7 minutes.
Making superchargers is no small endeavor. In fact, Tesla is building a brand new factory in China just to make superchargers for the chinese market.
Nobody has actually got practicable fusion going yet, but He3 is no longer the preferred fuel of any of the big projects that I know of.
Try the maths again, it's a lot worse than you think.
————. ~860 kw power
860 000 watts
—————— ~ 3570 amps
You could hook up to an electric arc furnace or an aluminium refining pot. But you aren't getting that in your home garage, or any feasible drive in charging station.
Someone said on another post that the He3 idea had been superseded by another fusion process, too.
7 minute recharge?
On What planet?
————. ~45 kw power
—————— ~ 185 amps
Even if their battery could take that amount of current, WHO has that amount of current available?
I think that Elon is being conservative, but let's do the numbers as stated anyway.
So, both Texas and Berlin will each contribute about 80k for 2021, about 280k for 2022 and 500k in 2023. 2021 will most likely see a production of 1 million (including Texas and Berlin).
Just adding the contributions from Texas and Berlin gets us: 2022 – 1.4 million; 2023 – 1.84 million. This is right on track for 40% increase per year. Note, this is without any increase in Shanghai nor Freemont and no new gigafactories… I.e., keeping the growth rate of at least 40% seems to be a done deal.
If I were to guess, I think that 2023 will be closer to 2.5 million vehicles, making Tesla one of the larger car manufacturers in the world.
That could be Dan's point: Mordriel is asking why we haven't been mining He3 from the moon already to power non-existent He3 fusion plants.
Do you mean existing fission?
There is no existing fusion.
I don't see the what's so special about Toyotas battery. The range is same-old-same-old and nobody will be able to use the charging rate because there are no suitable chargers. Price – the most important aspect of the battery – is left out completely.
500 km is about 310 miles. So? There are plenty of EVs with that range. And even if a 7 minute charge is possible, what charger would be able to provide it? A 80 kWh battery would require about 660 kW and Toyota has no chargers, let alone a 660 kWh charger. And if there are no chargers for this speed, then it's pointless.
Boeing is not the same since moving out of Seattle, this might also be the beginning of the slow decline of Tesla.
Not so much a fan of lunar He3 as I like existing fusion for baseload. O'Neill wanted glass, Al and O from the Moon in the '70s, before H2O and C compounds found. We not only did no lunar mining, we did no lunar surveying of resources for fear it would *detract* from Mars cash cow. Which seems absurd! There is no worse plan than Mars for practical (non-science) Space development. There is no BETTER plan than Space Solar.
*GASP* Do you mean to imply that moon regolith industry would be one of the most lucrative ventures of all time?! It CAN'T be TRUE! Seriously, though, I don't know why someone didn't start scraping the moon years ago. It's not like we haven't had that technology. If Elon were to scrape rego and use for H3 in compact fusion reactors (I've no doubt SpaceX could build one), then getting 3D printers into space to manufacture starships to travel to Mars would be great. Plus, that cash flow. Yum. Feed me those $100s xD
"Solar and wind will need to be supported with large battery storage." Unless we *discover* radar and start power beaming.
"Giga Texas is only a few months behind Giga Berlin so the production from Texas will be similar." And the snakes only nap in Texas.
"doubling of world electricity usage and demand" With Space Solar, Criswell LSP in particular, the starting size is 20 TWe, about double *current*, but up to 200 TWe avail, as power beaming and low cost drive usage. The *demand* already exists!
"electric planes" and trucks and ships certainly. Batteries or H? Both Space Solar and power beaming give advantage to H, using remote, currently unused power, making the split efficiency less important. Of course, if you start with line current here and now, making H makes less sense, but that is the comparison used. edit: The blog is about batteries, so ask whether batteries work best for large scale heat, as small nukes seem better, or *fire* heat for industry/metal work, as H is ideal. Batteries seem at best equal to H for transportation, and H will be here. H pipes and power beaming may eliminate the large scale grid even before the big solar storm does.
Musk should forget Mars, move away from cars. Send 3D printers and rego processors to LEO, set up by ISS people, and haul rego from lunar poles. Process rego, print stuff. Tug processors and printers, factories, to Gateway Halo and L5, DO IT!
I find it odd that Elon discounts car-to-grid based solely on the lack of participation by a few early Roadster owners. My understanding is that the real promise with car-to-grid involves a large number of vehicles being centrally managed and serving as a pseudo grid-scale battery.
This may be true– and I'll buy one of those fully electric Toyotas along with a Tesla simply "because Toyota"– but we haven't yet seen the ceiling when it comes to Tesla's battery technology, and how their ideas about production and materials might shift. I need to look more into Toyota's batteries. This has me curious, thanks for that information!
whoops – possible over-investment in the losing horse:
"…The electric vehicles being developed by Toyota will have a range more than twice the distance of a vehicle running on a conventional lithium-ion battery under the same conditions. All accomplished without sacrificing interior space in even the most compact vehicle. The world's largest automaker will unveil a prototype next year – with first general release anticipated well before 2024.
Solid-state batteries are expected to become a viable alternative to lithium-ion batteries that use aqueous electrolyte solutions. The innovation would lower the risk of fires and multiply energy density. It would take roughly 7 – 10 minutes to charge an electric vehicle equipped with a solid-state battery, cutting the recharging time by over two-thirds…."
This is why he's fleeing CA. After building factories in Texas, Germany, and China, he's come to learn that CA isn't an ideal place to do business. Too many regulations, too many taxes, too high cost of living to attract lower pay employees.
When you're a small company, you need to be in a big city to get access to the local talent pool. When you're big like Tesla, the good employees will come to you.
More large employers should move to smaller cities.
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