SpaceX Starlink Revenue Forecast to 2025

We know several new things about the growth of SpaceX Starlink and plans to increase mass production of the fully reusable Starship.

Spacex President and COO Gwynn Shotwell talked about a target of one Starship rocket every day. This means the need for 4000 Raptor engines every year.

In a recent SpaceX staff presentation, SpaceX revealed they are just short of 500,000 Starlink customers. This means the production of Dish-terminals has increased from 5000 per week late in 2021 to 25000 per week or more.

It is these multiple ramps in mass production that will determine the revenue growth of SpaceX. SpaceX is not using 10% of the satellite network bandwidth capacity currently deployed. We know this because the 2400 satellites are in low earth orbit and only about 2% are over the USA at any one time. Five to ten times the land mass with customers is waiting for SpaceX to make more dishes and acquire non-US customers.

The critical bottleneck to revenue growth is faster mass production of satellite receiving dishes and terminals and the acquisition of new non-US customers.

SpaceX needs to scale to onboard 1 million customers per month to reach a 10-30 million total subscriber base within two to three years to fully use the 12000 Gen 1 satellites.
SpaceX needs to scale to onboard 10 million customers per month to reach a 100-300 million total subscriber base after the Gen 2 satellites are launched.

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10 thoughts on “SpaceX Starlink Revenue Forecast to 2025”

  1. As usual no connection between numbers and reality (Brian will probably not publish my comment, but even if he will read it enough)
    Each Gen1 Starlink sat can support up-to 2 or 3K users at the same time (you can see from Starlin web that most of USA has reach that max number of terminals, so they wait for more sats before they will connect new users).
    Gen2 has 8X capacity, but by 2026, users will require higher average DL rates (2-3 4K TV streaming for each home at the same time), so probably number of terminals per sat will only double to 5K.
    At each moment around 33% of the sats are above or near (up-to 500miles away) populated land. (Plains and deep ocean ships are in lower numbers anyway)
    Starlink will probably not get license in Russia and China which are 1/6 of the world land area.

    So the 12K Gen1 sats has theoretical max number of users of less then 10M, if at each area they will reach max number of terminals.

    Gen2 30K sats are limited to up to additional 40M terminals.

    Also 300M Terminals are impossible because:
    A. In advance countries there aren’t that many users without the possibility to connect to good land cable/fiber.
    B. In the 3’rd world there aren’t that many users that can afford to pay 1500$ per year.

    Reply
    • You do realize that Starlink is already serving 500k customers with just 2400 Gen 1 satellites and almost all of those customers are in the USA. USA covers about 2% of the world. 16X more land area with potential customers. Rural customers and those needing connection while moving will choose Starlink. People have home connections and mobile phone connection. There will be people and businesses that choose home/biz, mobile and Starlink.

      Reply
  2. I’ve read that Starlink doesn’t work in cities. Is that true ?
    Are there plans for future generations of Starlink sats/receivers to service urban customers ?

    Reply
    • Starlink require a direct line of sight and a relatively low number of neighbors terminals served by the same sat (approximately up-to 2K terminals per sat).
      With current constellation of ~2K sats, each cover on average an area of 200,000KM^2
      When full first phase 12K sats will be operated, the individual sat coverage area will be down to 40,000KM^2.
      Another issue is that the total max BW of 20Gbps is achieved by the sat generating multiple directional beams, each with a lower max BW. Costumers living in the same town will share the same beam, so max users per town is probably in the low hundreds.
      You can go the SpaceX site and see the Starlink availability, large areas has reached max number of terminals, and are waiting for more sats to be activated.

      Reply
  3. Thank you for your dedication to the advancement of knowledge and providing us an insight into the future technology that will definitely educate mankind. Kudos to you Brian!

    May your tribe increase!

    art

    Reply
  4. Definitely seems like the home dish terminals are the limiting factor. I’ve been waiting for months now and am scheduled for “late 2022”.

    Reply
  5. I LOVE my StarLink!!! Been using it for just over a year and it’s fantastic!!! We live so far back in the woods that we have to pipe in sunshine and have never had broadband… Until StarLink!!! Thank you SpaceX🙏🙏🙏

    Reply

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