I, Brian Wang, had a great talk with Warren Redlich about Tesla production and deliveries in 2023, the future of Model 3 and Model Y, Cybertruck Semi, the next-generation vehicle platform, megapack and more.
I think Tesla will trend to 90% of actual production capacity (production being demonstrated sustained over weeks).
In Q1 2023, Tesla delivered 423k cars and produced 440k cars. This was about 89% of real peak production capacity. Tesla Shanghai has shown three months of 88,000 cars produced. This would be 264k. Fremont can make 150k cars per quarter (although the Tesla stated Fremont capacity is 650k per year. Tesla S/X are at 70k per year). Berlin and Austin had reached about 40k per quarter in Q1. IF Tesla could produce at full capacity in Q1 this would have been 494k cars.
Tesla has increased production capability to 4k per week in Texas and 5k per week in Berlin and this should increase by 1k per week for each month and end Q2 at 7k per week in Texas and 8k per week in Berlin. The average quarterly production should be 5.5k per week in Texas and 6.5k per week in Berlin. This would be 71k cars from Texas and 84k from Berlin in Q2. This would be 569k cars with real peak production capacity. Tesla should produce 90% of that level or 512k cars in Q2.
Q3 should see Texas-Berlin ramp to 110-120k cars and Q4 each should be at 130k cars. Q3 at 90% of peak real production would be 575k and Q4 would be at 600k.
I think 2.1-2.3M deliveries is reachable for 2023 with 3 weeks of inventory/transit. Immaculate ramps and pricing and demand matched at near optimal levels could get to 2.2-2.4M. If Tesla slows the ramp in Berlin and Texas or demand drops things to 85% instead of 90% then it goes to 2-2.2M. If the plateau for Berlin or Texas is lower (factory or demand) then I think then that would also lower the projection. Texas demand should be stronger because of IRA. Europe probably needs significant base car price cuts to push beyond 85k cars in quarter to absorb 150k cars. Further price cuts would be needed to move 150-160k cars domestically in China instead of 120-130k. Price cuts would be needed in Europe and in the US to move the extra capacity from Texas and Berlin.
Warren and I also discussed my view that Tesla will dominate with Cybertruck and Semi. It is very difficult for Daimler Trucks (Freightliner) to catch up with Semi truck technology and then to scale to large numbers of trucks. They need to get access to 100 GWh/year of batteries for every 100,000 long haul truck. They have not built the mass production electric Semi truck factories.
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Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
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The most important decision for companies when it comes to buying commercial trucks and cars is economic. Does it improve the companies bottom line ? When it comes to regular consumers, this is a little more tricky but if you don’t have 10-15K to donate, then you will chose the cheapest car. But then Tesla also has the safest car so if you don’t care about your safety and especially your loved ones then you will chose another brand. Tesla is like time, it will move on with or without you. You can either adopt and change with time or be a hermit and seclude yourself on a deserted island.
I guess it will all come down to demand and margins. Net income rising or dropping. How quickly can cybertruck, semi, and MegaPack ramp?
Pros: IRA (inflation reducton act) credits. New Clean Air Act rules. Falling commodity prices.
Cons: Bad macroeconomy. Tree huggers mad about Twitter. True competition from Hyundai/Kia and BYD.
Unknowns: Can competition ramp production like Tesla (unlikely, but not impossible.) Will Tesla acquire/buyout a battery company or competitor who has even greater battery chemistry?
My strategy is to buy and hold TSLA longterm, swat away daytraders/short sellers.
But nothing is guaranteed.