SpaceX and Starlink Revenue is Growing Faster

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Starlink Mobility (RV and other users) has 300,000 customers who pay $2500 for installation and $250 per month. This is more than the $120 per month for regular residential. The higher charges for mobility/RV users and the higher estimate of Starlink mobility customers, the increase in residential charges of $10 per month, increases my conservative estimate for Starlink 2023 revenue by about $1 billion to over $17 billion.

If SpaceX is able to increase Starlink satellite dish production to 500,000 dishes per month by mid-2023 then they could make 1 million in first half of 2023 and 3 million in the second half. Every 2 million more residential Starlink customers adds $3 billion per year in runrate to revenue. 6 million more residential customers in 2024 would add $9 billion per year in revenue. SpaceX is finishing a Starlink dish factory in Texas which should massively increase Starlink dish production.

RV ownership has grown from 7.9 million households in 2005 to over 9 million today. Over 11% of US households own a recreational vehicle. More than 50% of RVers take their pets away with them. Over 40 million Americans regularly go RVing, with over 25 million RVing a year. If 12% of RV owners choose to get a Starlink this would be a market for 1 million mobile Starlink. This would be $2.5 billion per year in mobile Starlink revenue. If 33% of RV owners choose to get a Starlink this would be a market for 3 million mobile Starlink. This would be $9 billion per year in mobile Starlink revenue.

There are also about 1 million long haul truckers in the USA. If 20% of the long haul truck drivers chose to use mobile Starlink then this would be 200,000 mobile Starlink customers. This would be $600 million per year in revenue.

SpaceX was adding 150k Starlink users per month at the end of 2022. SpaceX has 1.5M subscribers now. Starlink would add 1 million customers without increasing the monthly production of dishes.

From Jan -May 2023, SpaceX had 35 launches. Although one of those was the Starship test.

Number of launches: 35 (Falcon 9: 32, Falcon Heavy: 2, Starship: 1)
Launches success rate: 100%
Launch rate: 4.15 days (Needed for 100 launches: 3.65 or lower)
East Coast launches: 24 (LC-39A: 6, SLC-40: 18)
Gulf Coast launches: 1 (Starbase)
West Coast launches: 10 (SLC-4E)
Total payload mass: ~354,474 kg (Not including classified and rideshare missions, or crew)

Total crew: 8 (Government: 6, Commercial: 2)

Two major communication lines of business starting this year. Starshield and Direct to Cellphone via Gen 2 satellites. Monthly dish production is the limiting factor on Starlink revenue. 4% of the orbiting satellites provide service to 80% of the Starlink customers who are in North America. The current orbital satellites can support 20 million global customers. Doubling the orbital bandwidth in 2023. 40 million serviceable capacity by the end of 2023. Ramping dish production to 1-2 million per month to rapidly capture those customers is the only factor preventing SpaceX Starlink from getting to $30-60 billion per year in revenue early in 2024.

5 thoughts on “SpaceX and Starlink Revenue is Growing Faster”

  1. So,Elon is helping his pal Putin by cutting off Ukraine Starlinks use by drones? So disappointing, he really is a truly evil person.

    • Elon is acting as a political actor, by helping the U.S. rift-wing to transform into something more liberal and future-focused. There could be alternatives to his style of thinking in the right wing America (not my Country, thankfully), but he is simply hijacking the right-wing debate. Similar thing has been done in my country by a covert federalist (Kaczyński) pretending to be a nationalist. Now his “nationalist” voters are actually in favor of a common EU army, how patriotic of them.

    • I believe Elon is in fact coordinating rather closely with your federal administration, helping the US to occupy the attention of both “anti-Russsia” and “pro-peace” people – along with Trump. Which of the Americans should I prefer then, a “pro-Russian” or an “Anti-Russian” one? I’ll have an American both ways. Direct involvement in combat doesn’t really need to be Elon’s mission. He did something far worse to Russia with his company: allowed a citizen of once mighty Empire to take a ride into space in his capsule, showing Russia its new place. Ukraine doesn’t need Starlink that much for combatting Russia. Instead, it could use some joint NATO bombardment of RU positions.

    • And, why is Elon refraining from direct participation in this war? Because it is actually meaningless for its ending, just like the Trump’s rubbish.

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