Space News has an article by Justin Fauntleroy, who is a government contractor responsible for writing future concepts and doctrine for the U.S. military, specifically the Joint Staff and Naval Warfare Development Center. Justin describes how SpaceX will not just monopolize space launch but also satellite production. Starshield is a new SpaceX program that offers customized Starlink satellites and terminals that DoD could own or lease, said Todd Harrison, defense budget analyst and managing director of Metrea Strategic Insights.
SpaceX claims that Starshield will be focused on three main areas: Earth observation, communications, and hosted payload. They will develop, launch, and maintain custom satellites using Starlink technology and launch capability. They are offering SCaaS — Satellite Constellations as a Service — aimed at the B2G market. With Starshield, SpaceX is ready to take orders from others.
Justin says Starshield is a Trojan horse that will enable SpaceX to further dominate the space domain and dictate policy to businesses and national governments alike. With the new Starshield program, SpaceX is on the verge of transforming its dominance into a monopoly. Nextbigfuture believes Justin is correct. SpaceX will monopolize satellite construction. SpaceX is building 150-300 Starlink satellites per month and SpaceX will be able to expand that satellite construction capability. Justin is freaked out about his inevitable development of a SpaceX modular satellite monopoly. Justin thinks something can be done to create an Android-like smartphone to the SpaceX satellite iPhone. I don’t think this will be possible for many decades.
For the space industry, the satellite payload is the equivalent of the iPhone app. The two main parts of a satellite are the bus and the payload. The bus provides support to the payload in the form of structure, power, thermal management, communications, control, etc. The payload is the part that performs a specific purpose beneficial to the operator. Thus, the payload is the most important segment to the satellite builder, because it is the payload that provides a service for which customers are willing to pay. SpaceX’s Starshield has the potential to remove many of these barriers to “app” development. For companies that pay for Starshield, SpaceX will provide satellite command and control, constellation maintenance, cybersecurity, encrypted processing of data, and integration and launch services. Most importantly, SpaceX will provide a modular bus with all the payload requirements and a plug-and-play operating system. In the example above, the optics company could simply build a sensor that complied with SpaceX’s requirements and then sit back and monetize the data it receives from SpaceX’s service. If the satellite payload equivalent is the app, then SpaceX has just built not only the iPhone, but also the entire mobile network as well. This is equivalent to Apple owning the iPhone, AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile.
Starshield is currently marketed to national governments, presumably partly due to the cost. SpaceX costs are expected to decrease rapidly. SpaceX has already proven it can build and launch satellites at scales not seen before in the space industry. As of January 2023, SpaceX owned nearly half of all active satellites in orbit. The first Starlink satellite launch did not occur until 2019. Their manufacturing capacity, combined with the lowest kilogram-to-orbit launch costs in the industry and unmatched launch cadence — SpaceX accounted for over one-third of all global space launches in 2022.
SpaceX will provide the modular bus and all the other satellite services at costs low enough to attract new customers to the space industry. It will not be long before regional, county, and municipal governments can afford custom payloads. Once SpaceX’s new heavy-lift rocket becomes operational, the cost of the Starshield program will only get cheaper.
SpaceX launches in 2023 so far.
Launch success rate: 100%
Launch rate: 4.12 days (Needed for 100 launches: 3.65 or lower)
East Coast launches: 29 (LC-39A: 7, SLC-41: 21)
Gulf Coast launches: 1 (Starbase)
West Coast launches: 12 (SLC-4E)
Total payload mass: ~436,379 kg (Not including classified and rideshare missions, or crew)
Total crew: 8 (Government: 6, Commercial: 2)
In 2023, SpaceX is tripling the payload to orbit for the rest of the world.
When SpaceX has the reusable Starship, then the number of SpaceX flights will increase by 100 to 10,000 times per year. SpaceX will increase production of Starlink satellites to tens of thousands per year and then to millions. Only SpaceX will have the mass production to produce all of the generalized platforms for satellites. SpaceX will make customizable satellite truck platforms. Others will fill the satellite containers.
“I think SpaceX is prepared to use the expertise and manufacturing prowess it has developed from its Starlink business, mass producing pretty sophisticated satellites,” Harrison said.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
Musk makes everyone else look like
Toddlers writing in crayon on the wall.
Which is sad.
Where have all the innovators gone?
In many respects I want to blame the mergers in the aviation and tech industries. They seem to care more about milking the Government than pushing forward.
The big names in space stuff are quite comfortable with NASA covering their ever growing contract costs. No need to innovate or create new stuff when you’re getting (over)paid for the same old overpriced sht.
Now it’s too late for them to even try and catch-up so they simply won’t
When will Space Exploration Technologies (notice the plural) begin building and launching deep space probes?
It seems everyone has thrown in the towel. I mean, why would SpaceX, a relatively new entrant into the rocket and space industry, build and launch rockets and satellites at “scales unprecedented” in the space industry history??!!
Monopolies are bad. The US government should refuse to build the military Starlink with SpaceX and instead should build it with…umm…never mind.