China is offering to fill the worlds infrastructure gap. This will enable all of the developing world to follow the China economic development plan. In a few decades, they will have no shortfall in transportation, industry, modern buildings, energy plants, energy grid and other infrastructure needs. China will also help them finance it. China will also have progressively richer trading partners who have ports, roads and rail and warehouses to build or buy what China needs or wants to sell.
China will build a global prosperity network.
People look at China’s massive domestic construction of the last few decades and are amazed at the scale. China will further expand domestic construction to get to 90-95% urbanization and will have 3-5 times the construction externally for the entire world. This global construction will be in full bloom around 2040-2060. China will be completing dozens of nuclear reactors every year. The high speed rail network will stretch across Europe, Asia and Africa. There will also be a separate South America network.
The $4 trillion is just the seed financing to get the first phases rolling for the global transformation. This is following the money for futurist prediction. $4 trillion is a lot of money to follow.
There are trillions of dollars needed to build a shortfall of global infrastructure. China is going to try to finance and build as much as possible. It will solve the problem for decades of how will China still have high levels of investment driven GDP growth. Notice- Electricity is half of the need. China will fill this with nuclear exports in the 2020s and beyond
Factories, properties, rail, ports and high speed rail will be first
Boosted by President Xi Jinping’s Silk Road belt and road initiatives, China is currently in negotiations with 28 nations, most of which are along the trade route. Should discussions bear fruit, a network of over 5,000 km is on the cards.
The Silk Road economic belt and the 21st century maritime Silk Road are a land-based belt from China via Central Asia and Russia to Europe; and a maritime route through the Strait of Malacca to India, the Middle East and East Africa
Nuclear construction will ramp a bit slower but will be going well in the 2020s and go to even higher levels in the 2030s and beyond
China is exporting its Hualong (1 gigawatt reactor) now. CNNC’s ACP1000 and CGN’s ACPR1000 were ‘merged’ into one standardised design – the Hualong One.
China is developing more advanced reactors of different sizes.
China will have various factory mass produced small reactors
The small HTR-PM (HTR Pebble-bed Modular) units with pebble bed fuel and helium coolant were to be 200 MWe reactors, similar to that then being developed in South Africa, but plans have evolved to make them twin 105 MWe reactors so that they can retain the same core configuration as the prototype HTR-10. The twin units, each with a single steam generator, will drive a single steam turbine. Core height is 11 metres, and steam will be at 566°C. The engineering of the key structures, systems, and components is based on Chinese capabilities, though they include completely new technical features.
The HTR-PM has thermal efficiency of 40%, localisation 75% and 50-month construction for the first unit is envisaged. The initial HTR-PM will pave the way for commercial versions which will have multiple 100 MWe modules connected to a shared turbine, of 200 MWe, 300 MWe, or 600 MWe. An earlier proposal was for 18 (3×6) further 210 MWe units at the same site – total 3800 MW.
CNNC’s multi-purpose small modular reactor, the ACP100. Preliminary design was completed in 2014 ready for construction start in 2015 and operation in 2017, but it awaits NDRC approval. The design is based on the larger ACP (and CNP) units, or AP1000, has passive safety features and will be installed underground.
The CAP150 is a small modular PWR. This is an integral PWR, with SNPTC provenance, being developed from the CAP1000 in parallel with CAP1400 by SNERDI, using proven fuel and core design. It is 450 MWt/ 150 MWe and has 8 integral steam generators (295°C), and claims “a more simplified system and more safety than current third generation reactors”. It is pitched for remote electricity supply and district heating, with three-year refueling and design life of 80 years. It has both active and passive cooling and in an accident scenario, no operator intervention required for seven days. Seismic design basis 300 Gal. In mid 2013 SNPTC quoted approx. $5000/kW capital cost and 9 c/kWh, so significantly more than the CAP1400.
Westinghouse announced in 2008 that it was working with SNPTC and Shanghai Nuclear Engineering Research & Design Institute (SNERDI) to develop jointly a passively safe 1400-1500 MWe design from the AP1000/CAP1000, for large-scale deployment. SNPTC initially called it the Large Advanced Passive PWR Nuclear Power Plant (LPP or APWR). It is one of 16 Key National Projects in China. This development with SNERDI opens the possibility of China itself exporting the new larger units with Westinghouse’s cooperation.
CNNC and SNPTC have talked of export potential, and SNPTC said that “exploration of the global market” for the CAP1400 would start in 2013, particularly in South America and Asia. In mid-2013 SNPTC quoted approx. $3000/kW capital cost and 7 c/kWh.
CAP1400 may be followed by a larger, 3-loop CAP1700 design if the passive cooling system can be scaled to that level. Agreements with Westinghouse stipulate that SNPTC will own the intellectual property rights for any derivatives over 1350 MWe. SNPEC is doing the engineering under a team from SNERDI, the Shandong Electric Power Engineering Consulting Institute (SEPECI), and the State Nuclear Power Equipment Manufacturing Company (SNPEMC), which will make the components.
Building Grid for China first and for other countries later
The grid system run by the State Grid Corporation of China (SGCC) and China Southern Power Grid Co (CSG) is sophisticated and rapidly growing, utilising ultra high voltage (1000 kV AC and 800 kV DC) transmission. By 2015 SGCC is investing CNY 500 billion ($75.5 billion) to extend the UHV grid to 40,000 km. By 2020, the capacity of the UHV network is expected to be some 300 GW, which will function as the backbone of the whole system, having 400 GWe of clean energy sources connected, of which hydropower will account for 78 GW, and wind power from the north a further significant portion. At present up to half of the wind output is wasted – 2.8 TWh in 2012, because of limited grid connections, according to a China Daily report. At the end of 2009, China had budgeted to spend $600 billion upgrading its grid. By 2020 operational transmission losses are expected to be 5.7%, down from 6.6% in 2010.
SOURCES – World Nuclear Association, Reuters, China Daily
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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