The IMF expects U.S. tax policy changes to stimulate world economic activity for several years. The short-term impact in the United States mostly driven by the investment response to the corporate income tax cuts. The effect on U.S. growth is estimated to be positive through 2020, cumulating to 1.2 percent through that year, with a range of uncertainty around this central scenario. Due to the temporary nature of some of its provisions, the tax policy package is projected to lower growth for a few years from 2022 onward.
IMF has calculated that the World economy is about $86 to 87 trillion in 2018.
Global economic activity continues to firm up. Global output is estimated to have grown by 3.7 percent in 2017, which is 0.1 percentage point faster than projected in the fall and ½ percentage point higher than in 2016. The pickup in growth has been broad-based, with notable upside surprises in Europe and Asia. Global growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019 have been revised upward by 0.2 percentage point to 3.9 percent.
The U.S. growth forecast has been raised from 2.3 percent to 2.7 percent in 2018, and from 1.9 percent to 2.5 percent in 2019. In light of the increased fiscal deficit, which will require fiscal adjustment down the road, and the temporary nature of some provisions, growth is expected to be lower than in previous forecasts for a few years from 2022 onward, offsetting some of the earlier growth gains. The inflation response to higher domestic demand is expected to be muted given the low sensitivity of core price pressures to changes in slack in recent years and a somewhat faster projected pace of U.S. Federal Reserve policy rate hikes than in the fall, with a modest decompression of term premiums and no sizable U.S. dollar appreciation.
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