In 2016, RAND wargamed scenarios which showed that Russia could overrun Latvia and Lithuania and Estonia in about 60 hours.
RAND has a 2018 analysis of how Russia is continuing to outmatch NATO and the USA in the Baltics.
Poland and the Baltic countries are increasing their armies by about 30%. Poland is getting old tanks from Germany and is modernizing them. Russia is also continuing to expand and modernize forces.
NATO has twenty times the GDP as Russia does. In the recent NATO meeting there was talk of spending an addition $33 billion on defense from European members of NATO. Buying 1000 new tanks would cost about $4-10 billion. Supporting the tank units would cost about $2-3 billion per year. Germany used to have 2000 tanks in the Cold War days but now Germany us about 200 and they are planning to ramp back up to about 350 tanks.
Russia could deploy approximately 150,000 personnel across maneuver, artillery, air, and naval forces in weeks to the Baltics, while the United States would require months to deploy a comparable offensive force across the Atlantic. The large-scale employment of Russian long-range fires would also seriously hamper NATO units’ movement to the area. Looking forward, Russia continues to expand its ground forces in the West. By 2020, Russia’s Western MD’s three armies will have grown to a total of three motor rifle divisions, three airborne divisions, a tank division, and four combined-arms brigades, as well as numerous other combat and supporting brigades. This will give Russia a starting force of about 26 maneuver brigades or regiments in the Western Military District. If achieved, this is about 44 percent more than the current level, even before considering the potential for reinforcement by additional troops from nine other armies in Russia’s three other military districts.
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