Ex-Australian PM Rudd trade war predictions and turning point

Ex-Australian PM Rudd says there will not be final resolution on the US-China Trade war until around Christmas. China will wait until after the election to see who it will be dealing with. The US Economic team has not had a unified negotiation position.

China has had more exports to US. This is a larger amount to tariff.

If this lasts, China has the option to tariff components of products. This would be done with a delay to allow other components to be sourced. This would slow trade and effect supply chains.

There has been a long-term impact for business trust. China-US relations are now politicized. Companies could look at other options where possible because of the risk of political interference.

China is presenting an alternative model to world of authoritarian capitalism.

He says when the history of this period is written, there will be the rise of China and now US counter-measures.

There is now a deep parting of the ways. Not just on trade. Not just on investment. There is also the declared and undeclared war in high technology. Strategic cooperation is yielding to strategic competition. The rest of the world will begin to hedge.

What will China hedging look like? Nextbigfuture has a view

After there is some kind of short-term trade agreement then what will the future look like?

China could be forced to not tariff US products related to Made in China 2025.

China had wanted to move from making 40% of products to 70%. The US trade and intellectual property moves will try to make this more difficult.

However, China will fund crash programs to reduce its semiconductor dependence. China will also work to lessen its dependence on foreign energy. China imported US$260 billion worth of semiconductors in 2017, more than its $162 billion imports of crude oil.

Some predict China will still be 60% dependent on foreign semiconductor in 2027.

Chinese memory chips will be on the market in late 2018 and early 2019, but they will be inferior to Samsung and US chips.

China will have to build a lot more nuclear power. This will be needed to reduce coal, oil and natural gas. China will have to shift to a nuclear navy. This is an area where China can build and mass produce its way out of weakness.

35 thoughts on “Ex-Australian PM Rudd trade war predictions and turning point”

  1. China-based fabless IC firms have managed to become world-class chipmakers following 10 years of technology advancement, and they are now technologically on a par with global peers, according to Roger Luo, president of TSMC Nanjing. Luo said that 12 out of the world’s top-50 IC design houses come from China, while speaking at the 2018 IC Summit held September 19 in Nanjing and jointly hosted by Tsinghua Unigroup and its subsidiary UNISOC Communications. Luo disclosed that besides ever-increasing investment in R&D on advanced foundry and packaging processes, TSMC has earmarked US$10 billion per year for capacity expansion to provide sufficient foundry capacity for key customers including UNISOC Communications. Sharing his observation about China’s IC design industry over the past decade, Luo said that the country’s IC design revenues already increased to US$8 billion in 2012 for an 11% global market share. Along with the revenue expansion, China IC design technology has also advanced significantly. While still using 0.13-micron process in 2007 against the most-advanced 65nm process available then, China chip designers already advanced to 40nm in 2012, compared with the mainstream 28nm then. This means that China had narrowed its technological gap to one generation from two generations during the five-year period, Luo said.

    Reply
  2. China-based fabless IC firms have managed to become world-class chipmakers following 10 years of technology advancement and they are now technologically on a par with global peers according to Roger Luo president of TSMC Nanjing.Luo said that 12 out of the world’s top-50 IC design houses come from China while speaking at the 2018 IC Summit held September 19 in Nanjing and jointly hosted by Tsinghua Unigroup and its subsidiary UNISOC Communications.Luo disclosed that besides ever-increasing investment in R&D on advanced foundry and packaging processes TSMC has earmarked US$10 billion per year for capacity expansion to provide sufficient foundry capacity for key customers including UNISOC Communications.Sharing his observation about China’s IC design industry over the past decade Luo said that the country’s IC design revenues already increased to US$8 billion in 2012 for an 11{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} global market share.Along with the revenue expansion China IC design technology has also advanced significantly. While still using 0.13-micron process in 2007 against the most-advanced 65nm process available then China chip designers already advanced to 40nm in 2012 compared with the mainstream 28nm then. This means that China had narrowed its technological gap to one generation from two generations during the five-year period Luo said.

    Reply
  3. China will wait until after the election to see who it will be dealing with.” Then someone should tell those morons in Beijing a thing or to about basic US Civics. Trump will still be POTUS after the midterms. It will be he who they will STILL be dealing with. “Companies could look at other options where possible because of the risk of political interference.” That’s already starting. Being reported in the financial press. Vietnam and even Taiwan are having a field day luring businesses over from China. They are like Texas luring businesses away from California. “China imported US$260 billion worth of semiconductors in 2017, more than its $162 billion imports of crude oil.” So? The oil is vital to running ANY industrialized economy. Semiconductors are not, technically. And they can find alternative sources for semiconductors (whether foreign or domestic) far more easily than they can for oil. Oil need is rather elastic, at a certain point of demand.

    Reply
  4. China will wait until after the election to see who it will be dealing with.””Then someone should tell those morons in Beijing a thing or to about basic US Civics.Trump will still be POTUS after the midterms. It will be he who they will STILL be dealing with.””””Companies could look at other options where possible because of the risk of political interference.””””That’s already starting. Being reported in the financial press. Vietnam and even Taiwan are having a field day luring businesses over from China. They are like Texas luring businesses away from California.””””China imported US$260 billion worth of semiconductors in 2017″””” more than its $162 billion imports of crude oil.””””So? The oil is vital to running ANY industrialized economy. Semiconductors are not”” technically.And they can find alternative sources for semiconductors (whether foreign or domestic) far more easily than they can for oil. Oil need is rather elastic”” at a certain point of demand.”””

    Reply
  5. Nope, he doesn’t, neither does America’s allies nor China nor his staffs. In fact, no one know what he’s doing as evidenced by the total chaos that is his administration’s signature.

    Reply
  6. Uh…yes, he does. You just proved my assertion about you being confused, too. Just because you can’t ideologically grasp that an American President is ending the Cold War World Order set up and maintained by America (that is what Trump is doing…clear as day) doesn’t mean it isn’t happening. Sucks to be the rest of the world.

    Reply
  7. Nope he doesn’t neither does America’s allies nor China nor his staffs. In fact no one know what he’s doing as evidenced by the total chaos that is his administration’s signature.

    Reply
  8. Uh…yes he does. You just proved my assertion about you being confused too.Just because you can’t ideologically grasp that an American President is ending the Cold War World Order set up and maintained by America (that is what Trump is doing…clear as day) doesn’t mean it isn’t happening.Sucks to be the rest of the world.

    Reply
  9. Nope, he doesn’t, neither does America’s allies nor China nor his staffs. In fact, no one know what he’s doing as evidenced by the total chaos that is his administration’s signature.

    Reply
  10. Nope he doesn’t neither does America’s allies nor China nor his staffs. In fact no one know what he’s doing as evidenced by the total chaos that is his administration’s signature.

    Reply
  11. Uh…yes, he does. You just proved my assertion about you being confused, too. Just because you can’t ideologically grasp that an American President is ending the Cold War World Order set up and maintained by America (that is what Trump is doing…clear as day) doesn’t mean it isn’t happening. Sucks to be the rest of the world.

    Reply
  12. Uh…yes he does. You just proved my assertion about you being confused too.Just because you can’t ideologically grasp that an American President is ending the Cold War World Order set up and maintained by America (that is what Trump is doing…clear as day) doesn’t mean it isn’t happening.Sucks to be the rest of the world.

    Reply
  13. China will wait until after the election to see who it will be dealing with.” Then someone should tell those morons in Beijing a thing or to about basic US Civics. Trump will still be POTUS after the midterms. It will be he who they will STILL be dealing with. “Companies could look at other options where possible because of the risk of political interference.” That’s already starting. Being reported in the financial press. Vietnam and even Taiwan are having a field day luring businesses over from China. They are like Texas luring businesses away from California. “China imported US$260 billion worth of semiconductors in 2017, more than its $162 billion imports of crude oil.” So? The oil is vital to running ANY industrialized economy. Semiconductors are not, technically. And they can find alternative sources for semiconductors (whether foreign or domestic) far more easily than they can for oil. Oil need is rather elastic, at a certain point of demand.

    Reply
  14. China will wait until after the election to see who it will be dealing with.””Then someone should tell those morons in Beijing a thing or to about basic US Civics.Trump will still be POTUS after the midterms. It will be he who they will STILL be dealing with.””””Companies could look at other options where possible because of the risk of political interference.””””That’s already starting. Being reported in the financial press. Vietnam and even Taiwan are having a field day luring businesses over from China. They are like Texas luring businesses away from California.””””China imported US$260 billion worth of semiconductors in 2017″””” more than its $162 billion imports of crude oil.””””So? The oil is vital to running ANY industrialized economy. Semiconductors are not”” technically.And they can find alternative sources for semiconductors (whether foreign or domestic) far more easily than they can for oil. Oil need is rather elastic”” at a certain point of demand.”””

    Reply
  15. Nope, he doesn’t, neither does America’s allies nor China nor his staffs. In fact, no one know what he’s doing as evidenced by the total chaos that is his administration’s signature.

    Reply
  16. Uh…yes, he does. You just proved my assertion about you being confused, too.

    Just because you can’t ideologically grasp that an American President is ending the Cold War World Order set up and maintained by America (that is what Trump is doing…clear as day) doesn’t mean it isn’t happening.

    Sucks to be the rest of the world.

    Reply
  17. “China will wait until after the election to see who it will be dealing with.”

    Then someone should tell those morons in Beijing a thing or to about basic US Civics.

    Trump will still be POTUS after the midterms. It will be he who they will STILL be dealing with.

    “Companies could look at other options where possible because of the risk of political interference.”

    That’s already starting. Being reported in the financial press. Vietnam and even Taiwan are having a field day luring businesses over from China. They are like Texas luring businesses away from California.

    “China imported US$260 billion worth of semiconductors in 2017, more than its $162 billion imports of crude oil.”

    So? The oil is vital to running ANY industrialized economy. Semiconductors are not, technically.

    And they can find alternative sources for semiconductors (whether foreign or domestic) far more easily than they can for oil. Oil need is rather elastic, at a certain point of demand.

    Reply
  18. China-based fabless IC firms have managed to become world-class chipmakers following 10 years of technology advancement, and they are now technologically on a par with global peers, according to Roger Luo, president of TSMC Nanjing. Luo said that 12 out of the world’s top-50 IC design houses come from China, while speaking at the 2018 IC Summit held September 19 in Nanjing and jointly hosted by Tsinghua Unigroup and its subsidiary UNISOC Communications. Luo disclosed that besides ever-increasing investment in R&D on advanced foundry and packaging processes, TSMC has earmarked US$10 billion per year for capacity expansion to provide sufficient foundry capacity for key customers including UNISOC Communications. Sharing his observation about China’s IC design industry over the past decade, Luo said that the country’s IC design revenues already increased to US$8 billion in 2012 for an 11% global market share. Along with the revenue expansion, China IC design technology has also advanced significantly. While still using 0.13-micron process in 2007 against the most-advanced 65nm process available then, China chip designers already advanced to 40nm in 2012, compared with the mainstream 28nm then. This means that China had narrowed its technological gap to one generation from two generations during the five-year period, Luo said.

    Reply
  19. China-based fabless IC firms have managed to become world-class chipmakers following 10 years of technology advancement and they are now technologically on a par with global peers according to Roger Luo president of TSMC Nanjing.Luo said that 12 out of the world’s top-50 IC design houses come from China while speaking at the 2018 IC Summit held September 19 in Nanjing and jointly hosted by Tsinghua Unigroup and its subsidiary UNISOC Communications.Luo disclosed that besides ever-increasing investment in R&D on advanced foundry and packaging processes TSMC has earmarked US$10 billion per year for capacity expansion to provide sufficient foundry capacity for key customers including UNISOC Communications.Sharing his observation about China’s IC design industry over the past decade Luo said that the country’s IC design revenues already increased to US$8 billion in 2012 for an 11{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} global market share.Along with the revenue expansion China IC design technology has also advanced significantly. While still using 0.13-micron process in 2007 against the most-advanced 65nm process available then China chip designers already advanced to 40nm in 2012 compared with the mainstream 28nm then. This means that China had narrowed its technological gap to one generation from two generations during the five-year period Luo said.

    Reply
  20. China-based fabless IC firms have managed to become world-class chipmakers following 10 years of technology advancement, and they are now technologically on a par with global peers, according to Roger Luo, president of TSMC Nanjing.

    Luo said that 12 out of the world’s top-50 IC design houses come from China, while speaking at the 2018 IC Summit held September 19 in Nanjing and jointly hosted by Tsinghua Unigroup and its subsidiary UNISOC Communications.

    Luo disclosed that besides ever-increasing investment in R&D on advanced foundry and packaging processes, TSMC has earmarked US$10 billion per year for capacity expansion to provide sufficient foundry capacity for key customers including UNISOC Communications.

    Sharing his observation about China’s IC design industry over the past decade, Luo said that the country’s IC design revenues already increased to US$8 billion in 2012 for an 11% global market share.

    Along with the revenue expansion, China IC design technology has also advanced significantly. While still using 0.13-micron process in 2007 against the most-advanced 65nm process available then, China chip designers already advanced to 40nm in 2012, compared with the mainstream 28nm then. This means that China had narrowed its technological gap to one generation from two generations during the five-year period, Luo said.

    Reply

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