Ex-Australian PM Rudd trade war predictions and turning point

Ex-Australian PM Rudd says there will not be final resolution on the US-China Trade war until around Christmas. China will wait until after the election to see who it will be dealing with. The US Economic team has not had a unified negotiation position.

China has had more exports to US. This is a larger amount to tariff.

If this lasts, China has the option to tariff components of products. This would be done with a delay to allow other components to be sourced. This would slow trade and effect supply chains.

There has been a long-term impact for business trust. China-US relations are now politicized. Companies could look at other options where possible because of the risk of political interference.

China is presenting an alternative model to world of authoritarian capitalism.

He says when the history of this period is written, there will be the rise of China and now US counter-measures.

There is now a deep parting of the ways. Not just on trade. Not just on investment. There is also the declared and undeclared war in high technology. Strategic cooperation is yielding to strategic competition. The rest of the world will begin to hedge.

What will China hedging look like? Nextbigfuture has a view

After there is some kind of short-term trade agreement then what will the future look like?

China could be forced to not tariff US products related to Made in China 2025.

China had wanted to move from making 40% of products to 70%. The US trade and intellectual property moves will try to make this more difficult.

However, China will fund crash programs to reduce its semiconductor dependence. China will also work to lessen its dependence on foreign energy. China imported US$260 billion worth of semiconductors in 2017, more than its $162 billion imports of crude oil.

Some predict China will still be 60% dependent on foreign semiconductor in 2027.

Chinese memory chips will be on the market in late 2018 and early 2019, but they will be inferior to Samsung and US chips.

China will have to build a lot more nuclear power. This will be needed to reduce coal, oil and natural gas. China will have to shift to a nuclear navy. This is an area where China can build and mass produce its way out of weakness.

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