Bad drivers and very low accident costs will help China win with self-driving cars

China has said it will ban gas and diesel cars in the near future. Many expect China to ban new non-electric cars in 2030. Car manufacturers recognize they cannot compete with combustion engine cars in China. They are the largest market for cars in the world. About 25 million cars are sold in China versus about 17 million in all of Europe and 17 million in the USA. China’s car market is projected to grow to 30-35 million per year in the early 2020s.

Summary of reasons why China will win with electric cars and self-driving cars

* China is the biggest car market and could become bigger than Europe and US combined by 2030
* China is the biggest electric car market. They could keep selling over half of global EV sales
* the government has prioritized winning with electric cars and batteries. China will build most of the world’s batteries.
* China has some of the worst human drivers to it will be easier for self-driving cars to be better
* They have no additional damages for pain and suffering

Electric cars are more green for China and help reduce its massive air pollution problem. China also forces a jump to electric cars where it is new competition. European car makers have technological advantages with combustion cars. It will be easier to catch up with electric cars.

European manufacturers are trapped by ongoing competition in gas and diesel.

Batteries have economies of scale. China does scale better than anybody else.

China will not require self-driving cars to be perfect. China’s human drivers are two to four times more dangerous than drivers in Europe and the USA. This will also mean it will be safer for China to use more self-driving cars. This will get less safe human drivers off the roads.

It is not a requirement but the forecast is that over of the cars sold in China in 2020 will have at least partial autonomous capability.

Car accident are no-fault and fatalities cost $50,000 in China

Chinese culture, legal and insurance systems are not based finding guilt.

* Guilt is not the main focus of an inquiry of an accident
* the focus is repairing the damage and for the parties move on.
* Chinese insurance system is a no-fault system. There is no legal or financial reason to assign guilt.
* the award is limited to economic compensation. There is no high-value award for non-economic matters like pain and suffering.

A driver who kills a pedestrian in China can expect to pay a one-time payment of around $30,000-$50,000. Chinese law stipulates that the driver is responsible for the injured person’s care and disability for the remainder of their life. This has the potential to run into the millions.

Non-economic car accident damage costs in the USA and Europe

In the USA, car accident injury damages are car be triple or much more than triple for pain and suffering.

In Europe non-economic damages are usually far less than the economic damages. This is especially true in the UK. Italy and Spain have higher non-economic damages.

The UK has some of the lowest car accident costs.