China’s Provincial GDP for 2018

China’s National Bureau of Statistics has released GDP for each province for 2018. The provinces that are as rich as Guangdong and above the World Bank per capita $12,055 GNI per capita level to count as high income. The World Bank High income provinces had 343 million people in 2018 which 25% of the total population. Shandong will join the high income provinces this year to increase the overall population that could be classified as global high income to 32%. Around 2023, China as whole should pass the global high income level and about half of the total population will be in provinces that meet that standard. China had 9.7% growth in chinese yuan GDP from 2017 to 2018. There was real GDP growth of about 6.6% and inflation. If China had a stable yuan then the GDP change would be 9% per year with a real growth of 6.0% and 3% inflation. Given China’s weaker economy and the likely trade war resolution, it seems the likely scenario is for China’s currency to remain stable or slightly weaken over the next few years. The likely range of growth scenarios is not that wide as China is stimulating its economy to try to maintain its growth targets. If China’s economy were to outperform because of mobile payments or surprising technology or other strength then there would just be a little less stimulus. For reference here are some European countries with different nomincal per capita in come levels. Portugal $21000 Poland $15000 Romania $12000
GDP and per capita GDP for China and its Provinces in 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020. GDP is in billions. Projections for 2019 and 2020 assume 6% GDP growth.

SOURCES- National Bureau of Statistics, Wikipedia Written By Christina Wong.