Current Betting Market Predictions for 2020 US Democratic Race

Prediction markets have Elizabeth Warren as the most likely to become the 2020 Democratic Presidential nominee. She is at 33 cents, while Biden is at 27 cents and Bernie is at 15 cents.

Prediction markets have Andrew Yang tied with Kamala Harris at 11 cents which represents an 11% bet that Andrew will be the 2020 Democratic presidential nominee.

Recent polling has Yang ahead of Booker in a fairly solid 6th place and he has occasionally surpassed Pete Buttigieg.

Warren, Sanders and Yang are all going for the left vote.

Biden has a high likelihood of imploding. If his poll numbers continue to soften then he loses out on being the safe choice to go against Trump. Biden has had terrible results in his previous presidential runs, does not have an endorsement from Obama (despite being his VP) and he makes a lot of gaffs.

Predictit has Trump as the favorite to win the 2020 Presidential election by 43 cents vs Warren at 23 cents.

SOURCES- Predictit, Realclearpolitics
Written By Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com

94 thoughts on “Current Betting Market Predictions for 2020 US Democratic Race”

  1. Betting is always great, when you have basic information about the side, that you're going to bet on. I've been looking for great soccer-related resources on the web, and the only cool resource I could find is this ( here: 55goal.com ) , where they show all the information in detailed score tables, giving news about each team as well.

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  2. It’s interesting to see how far the Overton window has shifted to the right in the USA. Your Democrats (or Communists as you call them) are what the rest of the western world would call center-right (or even more to the right). The Republicans would be ultra-right. Look at Republican policies from the 70s and 80s; that’s basically where the Dems are now. If you look even further back, to the 40s and 50s, Republicans were not far from Sanders now.

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  3. I thought it was uncontroversial that Richard Nixon was one of the most socialist presidents of the USA (so far).

    He was all about price controls and government control of the economy.

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  4. I think you still have a typo in there.

    100 million people at $24k. Or 200 million people at $12k.

    Not trying to cause trouble here, just that these things live or die on the actual numbers being right. So far all the UBIs that I’ve seen the actual figures worked out for… didn’t work out.

    THough step 1 is to not actually make it universal, which this plan does. At which point it just becomes a more generous version of the welfare schemes already in place in lots of Europe or Australasia. Which at least have the benefit of demonstrating that they don’t cause complete disaster within the first couple of decades.

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  5. 2.4 Billion per year? Is that number right?

    If you give it to 100 million people only that still works out at $24 each. Per year.

    That’s enough to buy one case of cheap beer. Per year.

    I think you have your numbers wrong.

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  6. Hah, memories. I used to do electrical and telecoms work twice as fast and better than the union guys that were paid to just stare at me doing it (to make sure I did it right! even though half the time I was fixing their screw ups), and the customer would get charged for both of our time. They would still request me anyways, price be damned, but they were banks and Wall Street brokers so they were happy to pay. No certifications whatsoever.

    Paying a guy who does better work twice as fast and a union guy doing nothing was still a good deal.

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  7. Due to illegal immigration, a union wage journeyman bricklaying job (good luck finding it union) only pays about $27 per hour in the USA, though. So that’s a hard sell.

    According to this a 1963 bricklayer made about $4.30 per hour (3.44x minimum wage). US average, not high cost state average.

    Adjusted for inflation on the CPI inflation calculator that is $35.94 per hour. You could probably get that in Los Angeles as a union bricklayer, but like I said, more like $27 with a whole nation view. A non-union bricklayer is paid about $22 in Los Angeles.

    https://babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/pt?id=coo.31924054204171&view=1up&seq=194

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  8. I did some tuckpointing on my 1891 brick building I used to have. What worked for me (as a n00b) was to start in the non-visible and alley sides (this was Chicago) to get enough practice so that when I did the visible faces it was good work. I also didn’t hesitate to replace bricks entirely as needed. I admit I only did vertical brick walls.

    It seems your main problem was just the hubris of overeagerness. I agree just paint it brick colored at this point.

    In my experience most all houses built in the late 40s and 50s are of unacceptably poor construction. Generally I tend to buy real estate built either late 1800s or after 2000 ( or the best of both – a late 1800s gut rehabbed after 2000). It is better to accept a smaller yard and/or square footage in my opinion rather than compromise on that, but everybody has their own tastes.

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  9. If memory serves me right Nixon once advocated for UBI and universal healthcare, guess he was a communist. Thomas Paine was also a UBI advocate. Yang actually wants to eliminate welfare for all UBI recipients.

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  10. Every GOP politician promises to cut taxes and reduce the deficit, yet every time the deficits get bigger. The average deficit increase during the first year of a Republican presideny is roughly 130%. So Trump is selling the same lie. In 50 years, the only presidents that have ever left office with a deficit lower than it was when they entered: Clinton and Obama.

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  11. It was obvious that with the trade war he is just winging it. His stance, timing of tarrifs and the tarrif levels he announces on Twitter first then alters his plan 3 times before it takes effect. So that tells me he never thought it through and is just throwing stuff against the wall.

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  12. There are huge differences between the modern wave of automation and the ones that hit in the 18th century and the late 19th.

    In the earlier waves, people were retrained to work with the machines that took their jobs – factory work was well suited for the people who used to be agricultural – you simply substituted one manual task for another.

    This time it is different. First it is faster. The past industrial revolutions happened over decades, this one in years. Second, there is no ‘place to go’ for the unskilled or even the skilled.

    If AI makes a paralegal’s job, or a radiologist’s job, or a trucker’s job, or a call-center worker’s job redundant, the likelihood of those people finding something even remotely equivalent is very low – and we can see that with the dismal rates of success in retraining. (workers’ programs for retraining are at 10-15% success rates in finding replacement jobs.

    And finally, even in the prior industrial revolutions, things were HARD for those displaced. Factory work was grimy and tough, people were regularly worked like machines and industrial based markets brought on large amounts of squalor along with the riches.

    Why in god’s green earth you’d want to repeat this in our society is beyond me. We already have historic levels of wealth inequality which has deadly consequences for the democratic capitalist system you feign to admire – things will only get worse, not better as time goes on. Best to do the unthinkable and redistribute.

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  13. Can’t think of any alternatives?

    Not exporting all our low-skilled jobs, maybe? Not importing extra low-skilled laborers? Granted, it would only slow the process.

    Legal changes so that people can become largely self-sufficient, and need less income, more easily?

    Regulatory changes to allow starting very small businesses more easily?

    I think there are a lot of things we could do to buy time, while trying to find a better solution than handing people money in return for their breathing.

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  14. UBI requires that we have strong borders. That is the issue I see all of these D candidates killing themselves with. They want to make illegally crossing the border a civil violation? I think we should all be able to agree on having a border otherwise there is no “us” to talk about.

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  15. I wouldn’t call anything based on existence “communist” because communist invokes a whole bunch of history, and we have this future staring us down where 99% of the world is “useless” in the capitalist system. We are already supporting these useless ones, we aren’t the revolutionary era capitalists, the civil war capitalists or the new deal capitalists, we are just a country dancing around the term socialism.

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  16. Trump and Yang make such an interesting pair, and yet I’ve heard a lot of Trump voters say this. I share the same sentiment. I think we are the people who prefer “outsiders”. I very much prefer them.

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  17. ” He jacked up the deficit from the 450-600 billion range, into the 1+ trillion range”

    Congress responded to his proposal to lower spending for selected departments by passing that deficit inflating budget with a veto-proof majority. There’s no taste for spending restraint on either side of the aisle.

    See this for evidence of him actually being in favor of spending cuts: https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/5/22/15676490/trump-budget-2018-explained

    “and then started a trade war without a sound plan to win it.”

    And, if he had such a plan, you’d know, because he would have publicly announced it? I’m not saying he has such a plan, just pointing out that, if he did, you wouldn’t have been notified of it.

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  18. “With “the old and increasingly feeble”, we did the “right thing” and created the SSA. ”

    And one of the side effects was the “birth dearth” across the developed word, because we’d made the next generation a commons, and people no longer had to have children to feel secure in their old age.

    Letting those who can’t find something productive to do starve is insupportable, but I still worry about the cultural side effects.

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  19. The dirty little secret of the polling industry is that response rates are now down in the single digits for conventional polls. This makes the polling industry sort of like Wile E. Coyote after the cliff has fallen from under him, but before he looks down. Their theoretical underpinnings are gone.

    They’re just hoping like heck that respondents are representative of the population, despite being wildly atypical in terms of being willing to respond, because what’s their alternative? Just giving up and finding something else to do with their time?

    One correction, though: They polls in 2016 weren’t actually showing a landslide for Hillary. They were showing a narrow win, and then the pollsters stupidly predicted a landslide anyway.

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  20. I think there is the “corporate-globalist/identity-politics left” and the “earnest left.” Most of the corporations are now on board with “left-wing” identity politics signaling such as funding “slutwalks” and Gay Pride Month events. This is not because the corporate suits care about the self-esteem of homosexuals or loose females.

    The modern “left” is really advanced capitalism developed toward its final form. It turns out you can powerfully influence people by playing on their personal identity. It’s such a powerful tactic people can’t help themselves. But it has nothing to do with the historical left (labor movement) just as historical feminists were demanding the prohibition of prostitution, pornography and drugs whereas now they demand legalizing prostitution and drugs and greater public support for porno.

    Likewise the labor unions (even Cesar Chavez) used to support immigration restriction to protect workers’ wages. Now they all support open borders, just like the Koch bros., George Soros, etc. I think the only sensible conclusion is that the left has been totally overthrown and abolished by the power of money.

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  21. I don’t mind Sanders. Warren’s not too bad either. Mind you it doesn’t really matter who gets into power. The corporates and the MIC are too powerful.

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  22. Sure in a perfect world it would not be needed, but if you combine UBI with infrastructure and education spending it will solve a lot. The is no need for free college with UBI. You can remove 50% of people on welfare and really it would take a VAT in the 5-7% range if you removed the Trump tax cuts. The economy was doing fine before them.

    For health care just make a government insurance option. Small tax to everyone, then a 10% tax for those that opt-in, all children get it free. The big problem with insurance is that its a system that is designed around risk management, but by having it as a for profit industry, you have increased the risk to all members. It’s a fallacy as an industry.

    That is about as far as my socialism goes outside the norms of the government managing stuff like flood control and roads and other strategic infrastructure.

    Environmental protection is not socialism, it is necessary to protect others liberty. Your liberty ends where my face begins, it’s my air, water and planet too.

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  23. To be fair, with UBI, Yang presents a pretty strong case and plan to make it work. A 10% VAT, elimination of the Trump tax cuts (essentially corporate welfare for his trade war), and as Yang has said, people can have UBI or the normal welfare offered but not both.

    UBI is a roughly 2.4 trillion per year expense, but the VAT is likely 1.4 trillion in revenue (consumer spending is 14 trillion). You could halve it at 5% and get 700 billion revenue, then remove Trump tax cuts (700-800 billion in revenue), remove 50% of people from current welfare (800-900 billion) by giving them the option of accepting some form of assistance or UBI. If you limit UBI to people only making less than 180k and give those between 180-250 an equivalent tax cut that regresses.

    There add that up and you have paid for it at current spending levels with a 5% VAT, put in 10% and you reduce the deficit to the 300 billion range.

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  24. The economy would be fine under Yang or Biden. The others could crash it.

    Then again, Trump is putting us in a very tenuous economic situation. He jacked up the deficit from the 450-600 billion range, into the 1+ trillion range and then started a trade war without a sound plan to win it. He literally alienated every ally that could have helped reign in China before he actually started. Add that to the fact the Fed does not have much space in terms of interest rates to provide a cushion and you have a dangerous situation.

    Republican Presidents have a terrible economic record over the past 40 years. Reagan was the first big deficit spender that began the quick rise in government debt.

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  25. Yep. Saved $120 on a electrician by replacing a broken switch for $6 on the weekend.

    Mind you, our nanny state says that this is illegal. But I don’t care.

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  26. I consider myself a moderate democrat, but I generally agree with your assessment of the Democrats. Things have changed and moderates are being left with nothing. Many politicians on both sides are abandoning centrist policies. The US economy and debt/deficit situation has typically fared the best when you have a Democrat President and Senate with GOP House. No Republican can honestly claim to give a fuck about the deficit, every time they get control it skyrockets.

    Republicans are generally just as bad as Democrats when it comes to social freedoms, they both just go after different ones. One want’s to take your guns, the other want’s to throw you in prison for smoking a J.

    I am supporting Yang since he has the most realistic plans that actually address real issues. He supports nuclear energy and increases in education and infrastructure spending, the two most important issues for me since they generally have the best long term impacts on an economy. Outside of UBI his ideas are generally pretty moderate. Say what you want about UBI, but he has a solid plan to pay for it (get rid of tax cuts, 10%VAT and cut any UBI recipients off of other welfare) and it would likely help the economy much more than Trump’s tax cuts have (which essentially created artificial inflation of stock prices due to buybacks).

    I may vote for Biden, but if it comes down to Trump or a non-Yang Dem. I will write in Dwayne Elizandro Mountain Dew Herbert Camacho again, since I did it 2016.

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  27. Yep… Tho’ it ain’t clear why you’d want to replace functional copper plumbing with PEX. If the copper is causing actual problems, then OK I get it. Otherwise, that’s a slumbering dog that is best left to his sleep.

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  28. Nah. We just need to refocus on all the things we forgot like how to do construction. All the white people look at each other and they have college degrees. it cost $150 to have an electrician visit your home for an hour. I need the copper piping replaced with PEX. I’m going to learn how to do that or I’m going to pay what I think is a fair price which is $2,000. there is work out there. I’m going to replace that 70 year old copper – me. A desk jockey.

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  29. When the automation comes the masses can learn to point the bricks in my 70 year old home so that I can get a reasonable quote instead of trying to do it myself because I can’t afford to pay $1,000 to point bricks. Try to automate masonry or other trades like a electrician. The whole world isn’t iPhone’s we live in houses that rot and need repair. Roads. All kinds of things that can’t be fixed by automation

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  30. One might just look at the present system. Welfare is UBI, in a sense. Same for what goes for Disability Insurance. Same, and more-so, for the long suffering Social Security administration’s per-capita money funding.  

    With “the old and increasingly feeble”, we did the “right thing” and created the SSA. And kept without exaggeration millions of pensioners from falling directly to dereliction upon getting to old to competently work. We use kind of the same logic in meting out Welfare funds, but less egalitarian. The gap between W and SSA is largely held by DI. So… a kind of UBI in three parts.  

    Venturing into daydream-land, I can’t see where any of the schemes has markedly disinclined The Public’s least able denizens from abandoning their meagre public entitlement income to instead work for a living. Yet, disregarding the constant alarm the Media makes about crime, prisons, street people … it also doesn’t seem like the drip-fed welfare-funded clan are all that criminal. Just poor.  

    I don’t have answers.  
    Just questions.
    GoatGuy ✓

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  31. Yep. And being a politically non-neutral voice, the Media refusing to air Trump adverts will also conspicuously not report that either. I think telling will be observation of how many mainstream media channels carry any of Trump’s entertaining stumps.  

    I guess we’ll just be treated to the crâhp-for-brains 2-party ‘debate’ when the Dems finally get around to winnowing the field some. Trump will be armed to the teeth with his usual Trumpisms, and whatever the prep-team pulls together as a most disagreeable retrospective on the candidate(s) prior blatherings.  

    Interesting times.

    Just saying,
    GoatGuy ✓

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  32. Yup, the computers are getting better, the people aren’t. Me and mine will be fine, on my side of the family we’re master machinists and technical librarians and engineers going back generations. My wife can’t say that, but she was a Phi Beta Kappa studying dental assisting in her second language, so good stock there. I think we’ll stay above the incoming tide until mankind either contrives a way to float above it (AI needs to mean “Amplified Intelligence!) or drowns.

    But things look ugly for people nearer the center of the bell curve, or, God forbid, on the left end of it. So I understand the UBI’s appeal. I just worry about the side effects on our society and species.

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  33. The march through the institutions conquered the left’s institutions first. They turned the universities into indoctrination centers, and the indoctrinated are now a major faction within at least the activist base of the Democratic party.

    To be sure, some of the older Democrats contesting the nomination probably realize they’re screwing themselves over for the general election, but you have to survive the primaries to contest the general election, so they do what they must, and hope they can pivot for the general election.

    A Bush or McCain might have let them pivot. Trump has a team recording all of this insanity for sound bites to use during the general election, to remind the less left-wing electorate of what they promised to get that nomination.

    Now, will that matter? I don’t know, the left dominates the media pretty heavily, and is increasingly willing to use that dominance in ways that are grossly obvious. So I would not be shocked if major media outlets refused to carry Trump’s ads.

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  34. thing is… i don’t think that that is in their interest, except from the opposite perspective!

    If I’m a (D), it might be beneficial to put money on (R) candidate. Because that’d ”put fire under” the (D) polity to push their candidates harder. And vice-versa.

    Kind of like that lovely matron-chicken-shopkeeper Norman Rockwell illustration. Zero sum game…

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  35. Mind, the amount of money in the betting markets is trivial compared to the budgets of the major campaigns, so it IS entirely within their capacity to buy a shift in the betting markets, if they want.

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  36. Its also why Old Goats like me are more-or-less accepting that universal basic income may come to be needed in the relatively near future. My concern is that as AI really starts taking over job after job, that they’ll start by displacing workers least endowed with bright brains. More and more are displaced over time, but people won’t be getting brighter and brighter. Just saying…

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  37. Nice, short, concise. My criteria are the same. Along with sideshows for religious freedom, true freedom of expression, and hot-buttons of false contrition, hypocritical tree hugging and pointless pandering to every last UN blathering.

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  38. The Republican nomination is not going to be seriously contested unless Trump has some significant medical event in the next few months, and ceases to be a viable candidate for 2020. I favored him in 2016 as the lesser evil, (after both Rand Paul and Scott Walker dropped out.) and nothing since has led me to change either half of that evaluation: He’s not a good candidate, but is less evil than anything the Democrats are likely to settle upon.

    I could certainly wish that the GOP were a more libertarian party, I have only started voting Republican because they and the Democrats succeeded in rigging our political system to the point where voting Libertarian was clearly a waste of time. I might have continued voting Libertarian anyway, if that very futility hadn’t resulted in the LP being taken over by quacks and charlatans.

    My two criteria here are,

    1) Does the candidate support gun control? If so, I take it they have long term plans that they think would result in an armed populace revolting.

    and,

    2) Would they crash the economy?

    From that perspective, the Republicans are not idea, but the Democrats are horrific.

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  39. True. I just don’t “get” the Démocrát party these days. It used to seem so level headed in a pro-society kind-a-left not-quite-socialist sort of way. That seems to be a dusty old shadow of a ghost the Left Wind has blown away.

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  40. Think so? 

    Or is it lousy ‘cuz the betting market — at least today — shows Trump at 44¢ Elizabeth at 23¢?

    Dennis below makes the point that the markets-bettors tend to actually be more accurate than the poll-takers. Could be. All I know is that as Démocrát contenders start dropping out, the remaining will rise. Will the last-and-final rise above Trump enough to actually secure the election? 

    I’d watch the bettors to see what they think. 

    Just saying,
    GoatGuy ✓

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  41. “And what are the long term, heck, even mid term, implications of giving the least productive the free time and resources to reproduce?”

    Spend UBI money on kids or the latest Playstation? Kids are expensive. People actually living on UBI will probably downsize their lifestyles to fit their budget so that they can maximize the time they spend writing their representatives asking for more free UBI money.

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  42. Already seen the Rogan and Shapiro interviews.

    Yang doesn’t get that Alaska’s and Norway’s economic realities are different than the USA as a whole.

    Maybe tell me why we have any taxes. Alaska gets by without taxes. If Alaska can do it the the whole world can! (don’t waste time replying).

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  43. “Every study I see says that (depending on study) 30-50% of jobs are in danger of automation over the next 10-15 years”

    My goodness! How will we ever survive this first wave of automation which is wholly unprecedented in human history?

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  44. That’s why people like Musk are open to the UBI: They can see that wave of automation coming, and are worried about a world where most people simply aren’t capable of doing anything that earns a living wage.

    Just because a problem is real, though, doesn’t mean any given proposed solution to it is a good one. The UBI has some REALLY serious problems in a democracy. When those on the dole are the winning electoral coalition, things could get really ugly. And what are the long term, heck, even mid term, implications of giving the least productive the free time and resources to reproduce?

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  45. Dennis is right. If the prediction markets are being stupid then that’s free money right there for you to pick up.

    Alternative approach: Just hedge your bets. If you want Trump to win put $20 on him to lose, then when he wins you don’t care about the $20, but if he loses then at least you can buy yourself a bottle of Tequila to get over it.

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  46. I’ve been voting republican for 18 years, and a little over a year from now, that may change. Because as much as I like Trump, I like Yang even more.
    But Yang likely won’t win the ticket…so I’m expecting to Vote Trump in 2020, then hopefully Yang in 2024.

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  47. jesus christ.. I see now that it is YOU who is batshit crazy. Every study I see says that (depending on study) 30-50% of jobs are in danger of automation over the next 10-15 years, a lot of those sooner rather than later. As

    Tell me, what is going to happen when there are boatloads of unemployable high-school dropouts/graduates who used to drive trucks and are now no longer employable?

    Ah.. maybe you ARE a red in disguise and WANT the massive upheaval that comes with capitalism falling into disrepair when this happens, and the motivation to foment a TRUE uprising. Onwards, comrade! Long live the revolution!

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  48. I would call that uninformed on the part of Andrew Yang for reading too many NBF articles without a TBSP of coarse February road salt. When I saw that position, I knew exactly what demographic he was shooting for and I wondered why he was aiming so narrowly.

    Should I ask Mr. Yang if he thinks I should load 69 assemblies with 4.3% average enrichment next fall? The outage was extended and I look like a genius because the batch will be so small. Should I teach him so that his opinion may gain validity?

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  49. Free-market economist Milton Friedman advocated a variant of basic income. Would you call him a communist?

    Yang’s climate change plan includes molten salt reactors and fusion research. Would you call that old school?

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  50. Prediction markets have generally been more accurate than polls.

    If you think their probabilities are wrong, then you can bet on what you think the correct answer is, and if you’re right you’ll have good odds for a profit.

    If you think the market is generally biased towards wishful thinking, just bet on the candidates people are least likely to wish for, and you’ll also have good odds for a profit, if you’re right.

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  51. Yang gang wave is coming. Secure the bag. Andrew yang is the only candidate even vaguely electable by anyone who regularly reads here at NBF.

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  52. I remember “galileo”. Once I started reflecting his BS back on him I noticed he stopped posting on this blog. Good riddance!

    I’d advise you should take head, and follow that same road before this “one” you hooked pulls you in the deep end.

    Now if you don’t mind, please don’t reply back with gibberish, and at least sound intelligent.

    Keep picking up the scraps they throw on the ground for you.

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  53. Ooooh. I hooked one. I wish Warren the gApe was here!

    Yes, the military is 1000% funded by the state. And I hear everyday about how US gotta be on toppa shyt because, you know, Iran or Russia. The ones that stick 2 decades like my cuz get lots of my worthless admiration.

    Hasn’t been a war worth contributing to since 1939. My bros went into the military because there was nothing else to do as non druggies with nominal IQ.

    I’m watching Trump’s experiment. I see where I’m at on the Ponzi scheme and I’ll pay $20 instead of $5 for X item just to stop the bleed. Saw “made in USA” on a town carnival toy 3 weeks ago. I liked it.

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  54. Actually any economics based on existance instead of effort is communist. Men should work to feed their babies. if that doesn’t work, its time for revolution, and I’ll be right there beside you.

    I need someone to help me with masonry work on my home. Do you have the skills to help me make this 70 year old house last another 20 years? I bet you got a college degree like me… when you see the YouTube video you realize it’s just a lot of work that we don’t do around here these days. Skills. Lacking. Look at attached amateur job. Gonna paint it.

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  55. Highly capitalist to inflate? And I think it’s good that pregnant low income women get government cheese, literally, like from Wisconsin. Eggs too, if you can’t afford them. why make the fruit of loins retarded for lack of nutrition. I was gonna buy a round of happy meals for that mother last week, but she got them fed. We eat lots of rice and pork in my house. It’s cheaper than McDonald’s.

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  56. You know, you Donald Trump supporters use the words “Communists”, and “Socialists” just as much as the far-left use the word “Racists”.

    How about you all STFU!

    It’s obvious this current admin is detrimental for this country, and the world. What we have is a snake oil salesman in the oval office. If you can’t see it, it’s because your dumb, or you want the world to break, and burn.

    I was part of the military in my past. The military has some socialist ideas you guys despise of, but work very well. One, is money being taken out of your hard earned pay every 2 weeks to pay into the health care you receive (TRICARE). The only issue I ever had getting any treatment was a Lieutenant sick call worker with a bad attitude give me shit for not taking care of my feet at the time.

    Some “Socialist” ideas can work in a system based on Capitalism, and if you think they can’t, then I can point out many countries throughout the world where they are working right now. Including ours!

    What we need is competent leadership that represents all people. This hyper-partisan administration isn’t going to cut it. Look at Trumps tweets again today, bashing the “Dems”. It’s a federal holiday for goodness sake. People are trying to enjoy a day off from the all minutia and BS in this world.

    So again, how about STFU!

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  57. Correct. Labeling someone or something ‘communist’ is the textbook retort of the conservative when he’s trying to label something he doesn’t like.

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  58. Agrees: “Just because you are a CEO doesn’t mean you know what you are talking about.”

    However, a UBI isn’t “communist”, unless you mean that “communist” covers any policy idea that you don’t like.

    I think a UBI is highly capitalist. The free market lets people vote for valued goods and services with their money. If all disposable income is concentrated in a few hands, the market is no longer free.

    For example, let’s imagine that Bezos bought (fair-and-square) every company, bank and VC firm. We’d no longer have a free market. That leviathan would look and function a lot like a communist economy, with everything integrated in one giant “company”/”state”.

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  59. Warren, Sanders, and even Biden aren’t generic D’s. They are all against hydrocarbons. That won’t play well in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Texas, etc. Plays well in California and New York.

    Pennsylvania has a lower unemployment rate than California (3.9% vs 4.1%). Maybe because they don’t demonize whole industries.

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  60. Honest question: In a crowded primary field how often does the first front runner win the contest? I don’t get the impression that it is often. I don’t think that the odds are in Biden’s favor.

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  61. Funny thing: I can take Yang seriously, I can’t take Booker (D- Thrace) seriously.

    Yang is just wrong. He likes to talk about how Alaska gives people money and this is meant to demonstrate how the whole USA can give people money. He overlooks the fact that this is due to Alaska’s natural resources which isn’t applicable to the whole USA.

    Or to re-purpose his faulty argument: Alaska has next to no taxation so the USA can also have next to no taxation.

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  62. Crazier than the candidates proposing mass confiscation of firearms? Well, at least most of them aren’t proposing nuclear war on US territory to accomplish it, the way Swalwell has.

    There aren’t any of the Democrats I’d seriously consider voting for, but I think I’m least afraid of Yang.

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  63. You’re right. Biden is not a communist. Yang and Sanders definitely are old school Reds with hip new terms like UBI and other giveaways.

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  64. Yang strikes me as merely wrong, not insane. You might even be able to explain to him why he’s wrong, and he’d listen.

    In today’s Democratic primaries, that’s a fatal weakness. The frothing radicals seem to have taken over.

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  65. Generic Democrat would probably be ahead of Trump at .57 Hard to say how it shakes out with specific Democrat. Biden is closest to Generic.

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  66. That’d interesting. After Trump, it’s a big old list of Democrats. After their candidate selection is done, who knows where it’ll all sit?

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