All US States Trending to Pass Critical Mass of Coronavirus Cases

Databrew data analysis indicates having over 150 cases in any region is when coronavirus COVID-19 reaches critical mass. There are still officially about 30 US states that do not have over the 150 critical mass of cases.

1. Are any of the states actually below 150 critical mass cases? Is this an artifact of a lack of testing?
2. Are any states following the Hubei province model of disease suppression. Do the seal borders completely to all of the outside sources and aggressively test and then contact trace all known cases?

Numbers below 150 in a state require active and effective testing and contact tracing to have a hope of holding the line below an explosion of cases.

Here are the current official numbers for US state counts of coronavirus.

SOURCES-,, John Hopkins
Written Brian Wang, Brian is working with a coronavirus mitigation startup.

37 thoughts on “All US States Trending to Pass Critical Mass of Coronavirus Cases”

  1. While it’s true that deaths show up without testing, that doesn’t mean they show up as Covid-19 deaths without testing. They just show up as “deaths”, and a LOT of people die in NY every day. Over 400.

  2. Looking at the link, there is the issue that NY has far, far more deaths than the rest of the USA. Deaths just show up, without need for testing. So if the deaths are in much higher numbers, that implies that there really are more cases in NY than elsewhere.
    Maybe more cases and deaths leads to more testing, not the other way around.

  3. The WH correctly did what they could do themselves. The problems came where they had to rely on the bureaucracy to actually do what they were supposedly in existence to do.

  4. You do realize that states vary in population by a factor of about 70, right? A trivial level of infection for California or Texas would represent enough cases to be a terrifyingly high level of infection in Wyoming.

    A uniform threshold number per “region”, which doesn’t take into account total population, is mindlessly simplistic.

  5. Here is the folly of treating an entire state (unless it’s Delaware, Rhode Island) as one region. Take my state (see attached. Over half of our cases are in one county (the very dark blue one; another 50% of the remaining half are in the green county. The grey counties have zero cases right now. Why shut down those areas? Utah is a very large state geographically. And our entire state currently has 169 cases; so no one region has 150 cases yet. We do need more testing to make sure this is correct. Right now they have some fairly strict guidelines in place. All our restaurants and bars are closed, all schools are closed, and all churches are closed. People are encouraged (but not yet required) to work from home. Hopefully with greater testing we can loosen some of these restrictions, at least in some areas.

  6. I did the math on the rate (cases/1million) of the States.
    New York 780
    Washington 230
    Louisiana 180
    New Jersey 148
    DC 136
    Colorado 81
    Michigan 81
    Vermont 78
    Massachusetts 76
    Mississippi 69
    Connecticut 63
    Rhode Island 62
    Illinois 59
    Tennessee 54
    Georgia 53
    Maine 52
    Nevada 50
    Wisconsin 48
    Delaware 48
    New Hampshire 47
    Wyoming 42
    Utah 41
    Arkansas 40
    Maryland 40
    California 39
    Florida 38
    Pennsylvania 37
    North Dakota 37
    Hawaii 34
    South Carolina 33
    Oregon 32
    Indiana 30
    Alaska 29
    Montana 29
    Alabama 28
    New Mexico 27
    North Carolina 27
    Nebraska 26
    Minnesota 26
    Idaho 23
    Iowa 23
    Kentucky 22
    Ohio 21
    Kansas 20
    Texas 19
    Virginia 18
    South Dakota 16
    Arizona 14
    Missouri 14
    Oklahoma 13
    West Virginia 7

  7. People don’t understand exponential growth. You don’t have to stop everyone. All you have to do is get the multiplier under one and it goes away. As for spreading asymptotically I take that with a grain of salt since the most effective mechanism for spreading it is the cough.

    As for cities being dirty packed unhealthy places they are still the apex of human civilization.

  8. If I’m not mistaken, plain latex will gradually dissolve in petrol, forming microscopic holes. Same reason that it’s unsafe to use oil-based lubes with latex condoms. You need nitril gloves or maybe polyurethane. Check the actual composition on the glove package, and look up a chemical resistance chart for more info. Depending on the chart, it may either say “petrol” or you need to look for “alkanes”.

  9. I use a disposable latex glove to pump gas.

    I mean gas pumps were icky long before this virus.

  10. 🙁 foreshadowing hitting LA’s homeless. Our leaders ignored typhus and now something worse came along.

  11. Just to add, the U.S. is very diverse in terms of population density. I’ve been to 42 states and, for many of them, social distancing is just a reality of everyday life. Many “cities” are suburban with no public transit. In those areas kids are the most likely vectors and schools everywhere are shut down until at least the fall.

  12. Bwa ha ha ha. The reason for the success in South Korea at containing the virus was that the government left it to the private sector … NOPE!

    The Korean Government put in place massive testing and isolation policies. The White House had two months to put the US on a war footing but waited until things went critical. Maybe the US should have left WW2 to the private sector. FDR and Congress should have just taken a holiday and got out of the way /s.

  13. you know if NYC gets hit…. the entire eastern coast is going to look the same… all you need to do is drive down I-95 to see how many cities it spreads to…. it like watching dominos falling… there goes NYC… there goes Philadelphia…. there goes Baltimore..etc… how many gas pumps can one corona virus infected person touch when driving from NYC down I-95…. and how many grummy virus ladden dollar bills can he use to buy peanut butter crackers while on his road trip… personally, i think the United States should take a look at the QR cellphone payment system they are using in china… no body even needs to touch anything in a money tranaction … you just take a picture of the QR code with your cellphone and the money is automatically transfered from your bank account…. maybe they need to invent a gas pumpping robot as well so you don’t need to touch the pump… then they don’t need to worry about pandemics getting spread by gas station pumps in the future… is that crazy and paranoid enough? then you can replace the handshake with a japanese bow…. hehe…

  14. Government agencies that have to be active during this emergency need to get smarter for the long term. Particularly police and EMTs and firefighters.

    Police are still stopping people for minor infractions. If it isn’t someone breaking in or waving a knife at people or treating the streets as a race track, they should mostly ignore it. Every stop has potential to expose the officer, eventually reducing the number of police available to be on the street.

    Departments should be keeping about half their healthy force in reserve – staying home, in isolation as much as possible. They shouldn’t wait until they are forced to keep ‘mildly ill with COVID19’ officers active just to maintain a skeleton crew force. Send half the officers home immediately to serve as a reserve.

  15. We need ANOTHER GOVERNMENT AGENCY? So, let’s put another DMV on top of the DMV. Yeah, that will speed things up. We need to get government out of the way. CCP caused the problem in the first place, government. CDC is to blame for the testing F-up, government. Bureaucrats do not solve problems efficiently, businesses do. We need to get government out of the way and unleash the market.

  16. Ramped up? I hope that we haven’t topped out. Ramping up would be a better phrase. Reports are coming out that test kits in some areas outnumber the swabs and ppe needed to administer the tests. More incompetence. Two months of fiddling while Rome burns. The WH correctly stopped travel from China. That was great. Then the WH went back to sleep and down-played the threat so as not to panic Wall Street.

  17. Clearly we need another governmental agency to support the CDC.

    Testing is ramped up now because it is in the private sector’s hands.

  18. Totally agree. States are NOT regions. My county (OC, CA) has had 5 straight days of 12-13 new cases reported. Our region is doing rather well and once the numbers start to reflect the aggressive social distancing they will drop even more.

    Individual car ownership and suburbs. Best social distancing imaginable.

  19. I think the point about hotels is very important.
    — Much cheaper, especially now the hotels are empty
    — Much better for the people isolated. Would you rather be told to spend weeks in a hotel room, or a hospital bed? At least in the hotel room you can live a semi-normal life.
    — Spending weeks in bed is just plain unhealthy. We know this from multiple sorts of study.
    — If you’re lucky you score some 5 star suite. During the SARS outbreak a guy I worked with had this happen. 2 weeks or so confined to a luxury suite, with full room service, paid for by the Chinese government. Probably still cheaper than a hospital bed.

  20. This is a pretty silly generalization. There are wide disparities in population density and population total in US states.

    Perhaps 75 per million. So based on US states that is New York, Washington, New Jersey, Louisiana and Michigan as of right now with Massachusetts and Nevada soon.

  21. How is it that South Korea can roll out huge testing and keep C19 under control but the US can’t do it? Twiddling thumbs for two months on testing, and no emergency program to build respirators, test kits and PPE.

  22. The assumption that a state that has more than 150 cases must lead to explosion of cases a name of a single analysis among many is farty.

    No need to rush to any dubious paradigm as an excuse to start welding the doors of the elderly like they did in China.

    The common sense is that explosion can be predicted by several factors which must include the thoroughness of isolation of possible pinpointed cases, and testing and the intelligence behind social distancing methods used. There are other factors that we know very little about yet. Let’s not forget that most infections happen in a household environment and direct contact and only second in the work place and in longer than 15 minutes crowded gatherings. Very little information about people that catch the virus in the street or even when using public transportation.

    One measure that is being taken in other countries is using hotels rather than hospitals, that are vacant now anyway to isolate people that are infected and are in the range of between showing no symptoms at all to requiring only medication and rest. The assumption is that people that are infected cannot infect each other and they would rather not stay at home where they are likely to infect other members of their household and on the same time not occupy a precious hospital bed.

  23. Can’t its illegal and doesnt really help anyways. You spread it even withotu a fever or symtoms of any kind.

    And wtf happened in NY well besides big cities being dirty packed unhealthy places.

  24. Critical mass is 1 if expansion is greater than 1.

    It can be stopped if you isolate, test, and quarantine. SARS and MERS were stopped.

    Right now the best testing device is the infrared thermometer. Use it aggressively like they do in China. Scan everyone out in public.

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