Estimate of 4-6 Weeks for Coronavirus Peak in the USA

Dr. Scott Gottlieb, member of the boards of Pfizer and biotech company Illumina and former FDA commissioner, gave an estimate of 4-6 weeks for the peak of coronavirus cases in the USA and New York.

New York could peak in 2-3 weeks. New York still has 5 weeks to go.

56% of the people in the ICU in New York are 30-50 years old. They mostly survive but spend weeks in the ICU and have lasting health effects. The death rate could be 0.2% for 30-50 year old but there is 1-2% chance that they get something like pneumonia for 2-3 weeks.

There was a 30-year-old ex-Olympic swimmer who had coronavirus. He would get out of breath walking any distance for two weeks and had the worst sickness of his life.

We need to help other cities to avoid the New York scale situation. There is a worry for Miami, New Orleans, Chicago and many other cities.

New York is the main front of the COVID-19 war right now for the USA. NYU is graduating students early so they can be interns. New York hospitals are at the normal limit now. Across the USA, 40,000 medical students are getting graduated early into internships to help with COVID-19.

We need to have MASH Units (mobile hospitals) that go to New York first and then to other cities later. There were seven MASH units in the Korean war and they had 200-300 beds. There will need to be 1000 to 4000 times the number of beds in the surge capacity for the United States.

The situation in Europe is 10x worse than in the USA.

Written By Brian Wang, Brian is also working at a coronavirus mitigation startup.

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