Dr. Scott Gottlieb, member of the boards of Pfizer and biotech company Illumina and former FDA commissioner, gave an estimate of 4-6 weeks for the peak of coronavirus cases in the USA and New York.
New York could peak in 2-3 weeks. New York still has 5 weeks to go.
56% of the people in the ICU in New York are 30-50 years old. They mostly survive but spend weeks in the ICU and have lasting health effects. The death rate could be 0.2% for 30-50 year old but there is 1-2% chance that they get something like pneumonia for 2-3 weeks.
There was a 30-year-old ex-Olympic swimmer who had coronavirus. He would get out of breath walking any distance for two weeks and had the worst sickness of his life.
We need to help other cities to avoid the New York scale situation. There is a worry for Miami, New Orleans, Chicago and many other cities.
New York is the main front of the COVID-19 war right now for the USA. NYU is graduating students early so they can be interns. New York hospitals are at the normal limit now. Across the USA, 40,000 medical students are getting graduated early into internships to help with COVID-19.
We need to have MASH Units (mobile hospitals) that go to New York first and then to other cities later. There were seven MASH units in the Korean war and they had 200-300 beds. There will need to be 1000 to 4000 times the number of beds in the surge capacity for the United States.
The situation in Europe is 10x worse than in the USA.
SOURCES – CNBC, NY Times
Written By Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com. Brian is also working at a coronavirus mitigation startup.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
12 thoughts on “Estimate of 4-6 Weeks for Coronavirus Peak in the USA”
April 2nd the pandemic has never seen a more target rich environment then the Excited States. With for profit health systems ie share holder 1st on list, patient after.
100m either no, under or undoc people in country
An idiot/denier in charge or not means a disaster is imminent. Remember those Euro countries offer Free health care, how many yanks are hiding/living with unrecorded virus.
Bullet wounds are a bit different than lung issues. Tents have almost zero insulation. They can’t even keep out air moisture very well. You need so much heat that there are real risks of fire just to keep them warm. Just all the emissions will lower air quality in the area. Then there is all the oxygen patients will need.
We have perfectly good hotels going to waste. And when they are full, FEMA trailers and moving patients to hospitals or hotels further away makes more sense than erecting a bunch of tents in the rain and muck. Tents are for when there is no building to use.
well…they have 2 floating hospitals… same thing… that works for coastal cities… I suppose they could fly people to them… it’s really not that far by helicopter anywhere within a few hundred miles…
I may have been mislead by a certain TV show, but didn’t they use MASH units in Korea? Which is hardly a warm place.
Hannity is wrong. It is not a hoax. Claiming otherwise is
Hannity is a propaganda peddler. Swambo quoted Hannity, he may not be this idiot.
Swansong, what you been huffing?
The US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) is doing the hotel, large building conversion stuff, themselves+contractors.
Based on a recent press conference video making the rounds on twitter, their leader Lt. General Todd Semonite is a national treasure. Clear, concise thoughts spoken in whole sentences with a refreshingly high signal/noise ratio. He’s getting stuff done.
So they’ve gotten China and Italy to destroy their economy and kill thousands of people as part of a hoax for American domestic political reasons?
That’s pretty impressive.
The numbers in Europe are already flattening, and it is going to happen here soon. Like already pointed out the number of people with anti bodies is a huge factor here that is not being taken into account. It should be sampled in countries that are already flattening to determine what critical level it need to reach that together with massive testing allows for keeping the disease under control without most of the restrictions.
Still to cold for MASH units. Though they could take over hotels and make them temporary hospitals. FEMA trailers might also be useful.
There is also the possibility of taking positive patients to warm dry areas of the country. Keeping all the patients in a city that is exploding with cases is silly. As long as we use good precautions, moving them somewhere else where there are more resources will save lives. It will also give experience to those doctors and nurses and other staff, so they are more prepared when it reaches their populations.
If communities complain and prevent this…relief funds can be revoked.
Sean Hannity said “They’re scaring the living hell out of people and I see it again as like, ‘Oh, let’s bludgeon Trump with this new hoax.’”
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