COVID Helps China’s Economy Pass EU in 2021 and 2025-2030 for the USA

The double whammy for the European Union GDP is Brexit and COVID. In 2019, the EU had a combined GDP of $18.3 trillion. The UK leaving removes $2.5 trillion. COVID removed another 10-12% in 2020. The Jan, 2021 GDP will be after Brexit is official and enacted on Dec 31, 2020. $15.8 trillion after the UK leaves and down 10% from COVID to $14.3 trillion. China should be at $15.0 trillion.

COVID Boosted China’s GDP from 67% of US GDP to 76%

In 2019, China’s economy on an exchange rate basis was about 67% the size of the US economy but now China is at 76% of the US economy. In 2019, the US economy was at $21.4 trillion and China (without Hong Kong) was at $14.1 trillion. In mid-2020, the US economy is at $19.4 trillion and China is at $14.7 trillion. China picked up about 5% on currency exchange and had a negative first quarter but recovered in Q2 of 2020.

Before COVID, the expected year when China’s GDP would pass US GDP had slipped further and further into the future. Many in 2019 thought it would take well past 2030. Now if China maintains 6% annual GDP growth and its currency was to strengthen to an exchange rate of 6.0, then China could pass the US economy in 2025.

Mark Kruger had a table for when China’s GDP passes the US, based on different China GDP growth rates and exchange rates.

COVID Crashed Economies and Markets

Amundi Asset Management projects Global GDP to shrink between -3.5% and -4.7% y-o-y. There were downgrade for the UK and a few South Asian economies (e.g. Malaysia, Philippines) where Q2 GDP came in weak. The 2020 downward revision will trigger a stronger base effect in 2021: we therefore mildly revised upwards our GDP growth forecasts for next year to 4.4-5.7%

The big bank, ING, new September GDP forecast for China is up to 2.5% annual growth over 2019 and the yuan is strengthening to 6.70.

The shrinking of the US and European economies and the currency hits give China a nearly 10% to 18% relative boost over various advanced economies.

Goldman Sachs projects India’s GDP to shrink by 12% in 2020 before rebounding in 2021 by nearly 10%.

India had hoped to have a $5 trillion GDP by 2025, but now the hope is to reach that goal in 2028. India’s GDP is now $2.4 trillion.

Many economies will take until 2021-2023 to recover to where they were at the end of 2019.

COVID has crushed the oil markets, crashed national economies, and accelerated the adoption of internet, streaming and other digital technologies.

SOURCES- ING, IMF, Amundi Asset Management, Economic Times India
Written By Brian Wang,

41 thoughts on “COVID Helps China’s Economy Pass EU in 2021 and 2025-2030 for the USA”

  1. IMF 2020 Economic Outlook (10.13.20). US 2025 GDP 25.7 trillion (exchange rate)
    China's 2025 GDP 23.1 trillion (exchange rate). China 2025 GDP will be what the US GDP will be in 2023 (23+ trillion), So likely in 2026 China will be where the US will be in 2025 and in 2027 China will be where the US will be in 2027. In other words, China nominal GDP likely to catch up with US's nominal GDP in 2027

  2. Let's wait for GPT-4, which should be released next year, we will see how it works and if theory, that by simple increasing size of the model can get us into AGI is correct. If yes, it could mean that we are very close to AGI. I belive in hard takeoff, which means that ASI/Singularity will be achieved soon after AGI will appear. Keep in mind that Artificial Super Intelligence IQ/problem solving/calculating power will be so high that Einstein's IQ will appear next to it like simple pet mind :). Such intelligence explosion could leap us into tech which normally(without ASI) would take us thousands or even millions of years to achieve. Some say that it could figure out/solve things like reversing aging, biological immortality, warp capable travel, advanced nanotech, teleportation, dark energy etc in a matter of seconds and it won't stop there, it will be churning out comparable tech/science each second for a very long period of time.

  3. on the contrary I think that whatever you might say about totalitarian rule, at least it handles pandemics well.

  4. "quite some time" until the petroyuan will take over.
    5 years max I would say

    The USA can have food and fuel, but so does Brazil
    The USA will end up as no 2 or no 3 in 4-5 years.


  5. Interesting, however I see some issues. 20-100 years seems extremely unrealistic. I think thousands of years seem more likely. Two, unless we become a borg collective, individuality will still rule. No one is going to voluntarily sacrifice their independence to the Singularity. As long the individual exists, then ego will exist. And ego drives wants, which creates nations, politics, economics, etc. We will be super smart, but still driven by our basic individual wants and desires. That will persist into eternity,

  6. Yeah, that weakness is America's strength. That is why the countries you support will ultimately fail.

    China is currently "strong" but they are also a brittle power that can't feed or fuel itself without imports.

    Who will China export to when the US turns away their trade and stops protecting their shipping? The EU? They have their own demographics and economic issues. The EU needs an export market too.

    Russia and Iran are loud and threatening but are mostly ineffectual. (edit:grammar)

  7. China's GDP deeped and recovered sooner than the US GDP. US GDP is starting to recover now so need to wait a bit till US fully recovers and than compare. This relative gain by China is temporary. China may never pass the US in GDP.

  8. All power addicts are in terror, if they realize that a growing number of people understand that power addiction is a symptom of curable mental illness. Otherwise, we should tell them!

  9. I just hope Da Pukke lives long enough to see both regimes collapse from their own tyranny and corruption. Pls stay healthy, eat right, and exercise Da Pukke! Also, try to get out from your mom's basement once in a while.

  10. Yes, but USA has a big weakness – liberal democratic capitalism. It will be enough to no longer maintain the hegemony, CCR run capitalism is more dynamic, hence superior

  11. It seems very likely that US growth over the next few years will be higher than 6%, given how it responded to tax cuts and deregulation before the China virus. It is also likely that there will be several years of stagnation or negative contraction in the Chineses economy, due to factors I mentioned above. One more reason is that Chinese Communist banking is way overextended and likely to cause a bust for a number of elements in the economy soon, especially in real estate. No matter what the base, positive growth over negative contraction, if sufficiently pronounced, will actually change to base numbers.

  12. The only part of the "West" in decline is Europe. The US dollar will be the reserve currency for quite some time and unlike some other wanna be hegemony's, the US has physical security, food AND fuel.

    Despite its size the US is one of the least globally connected countries in the world so it won't be to hurt to badly by the rest of the planet burning.

    As to resting, Americans love to work. Look how much vacation time we leave on the table each year.

  13. The last time China opened their currency to the world a trillion dollars of wealth escaped the CCP. They wont be doing that again any time soon. Everything else is just PR. China imports 80% of their oil, their demographics are abysmal and their "navy" is designed to invade Taiwan and little else. A world super power they are not.

  14. I think China is much weaker since Covid. Now the world recognizes that China cannot be trusted and most of the industrial world is planning to unlink with them as rapidly as possible. I bet Musk feels queasy about his heavy investment in China.

  15. I don't think anyone will be dominating so long, even AGI era will be a blip in history, simply because in just few hundreds of years or even soon after achieving Singularity(20-100 years) we could evolve into some kind of almost immortal, formless, enlightened energy beings. Current systems, mentality, concepts like nation, politics, economics etc, all this will become irrelevant and probably super primitive for such advanced beings. We will look at all this like on very early stage in our evolution. In time, we will probably even forgot about it

  16. I agree, people are becoming more aware of the game china is playing, even their own people. The tendency is for China to isolate themselves, that will definitely contribute to the brainwashing of their people but, in the end, that will also contribute to a negative view of China by outsiders which easily leaks info to the Chinese people.
    If china continues to repress the critical thinking their will have a difficult time evolving technologically; If china goes the other way and people are able to develop critical thinking then they can evolve but cannot sustain the regime.
    Also, china is facing huge problems due to floods, has massive losses in food production, smaller city’s economy is affected and will likely not grow; The Three gorges dam will eventually collapse, if nothing is done millions will die.

  17. Thank God no one cares what a sausage-munching Chinese manwhore thinks.

    Also, China killed more civilians in three decades than the US has in 240 years.

  18. I hate to fall back on a Lord of the Rings reference, especially here, but I seem to recall, when asked what would happen if the dark lord triumphed, Gandalf replied that the enemy's victory would be so complete that it's undoing could not be foreseen in all the remaining ages of Middle Earth.

    As for China? A country that has zero interest in human rights of any sort and cares nothing for any sort of balance between the needs of individuals versus the needs of the collective (to the point where they set up and brazenly run concentration camps even in the present day), one that seems to see individuals (even its "good" citizens) as being of less worth than we might regard the cells of our own bodies? If such a country were to implement the first high capability AI, I fear something being realized quite similar to what Gandalf feared in Middle Earth, but in real life and, instead of being held in place by the powers of a faceless villain, it would be a faceless bureaucracy.

  19. I agree. China has won. In the over 40 year history of Primal Science, the world has waited for the Exemplar of Neurosis to show, for all to understand Repression, by example, as the standard 50 year delay of any revolutionary science runs. That has now happened. Epigenetics, hilariously obvious in the Chinese, not to mention ACEs and many other lines of research, all point to Primal truth, waiting to be seen by all. Nothing compares for mental illness to a hall full of sycophants applauding in unison their *grate* leader. Altho, POTUS is giving them a run!

  20. Also I do not think that there is reason to be afraid or depressed because of West decline, We have our 5 minutes, contributed a lot for such small fraction of global population, now let us rest a bit. Focus on innovation, offering interesting services and products, trade with increasingly prosperous world and thanks to that became even more prosperous.

    Also, West can and should focus on achieving AGI or even ASI/Singularity, which will be ultimate invention and will give the country which will invent it bragging rights for millions of years and also make everyone on earth possibly a millionaire/billionaire

  21. China currency gaining has strong momentum(maintly because China's economy transitioning very fast into hi-tech economy), even without COVID their GDP would be at around 110 trillion rmb in 2020 and 120 trillion RMB in 2021. If rmb appeciates to 6-1(rmb-dollar) or 6,5-1 their GDP can be at around $18-20 trillion next year. I would say in dollar terms they can catch up even faster, in 2023

    In absolute terms it won't be hard for China to catch up with US (China workforce 800millions/US-160millions), but to really prove that their system is more efficient/productive, ultimately they would need to catch up to US per capita, which is still around 3-6x larger(depending how you counting).

  22. I just believe many people in the world have a vastly favourable view of China than the USA.
    Which is precisely why China has been so successful in Africa and many other places to sell their goods.
    This is why the USA is constantly failing to unite countries against China
    At the end of the day, not many people like the USA, certainly not Iranians, Iraqi, Venezuelans, Brazilians, etc. etc. etc.

    China has won.

    Get a grip!

  23. Thanks God, nobody in this world cares about who you prefer to be the dominant player.
    And simple math shows that between China and the US, the one growing 3x times faster is China.
    Soon the USA will not be able to murder civilians across the globe.

    It will be a great day when China will kick the USA from the top spot and this will happen in 5-6 years.

    Da L.ukke

  24. I really hope you are correct, but I don't really see any strong reaction in the West to the things China is doing. It would seem that forced sterilization and "soft" genocide is OK in the eyes of our elites as long as it is done by a communist country. You and I are appalled, but Hollywood and the likes don't seem to mind all that much… they are busy condemning the meat industry and white patriarchy..

    But perhaps Japan is more staunch in their resistance towards China? And perhaps also Australia?

  25. There will be impediments and for a while things will work China's way, But China and its head Xi are too regressive, look at all the atrocities China is committing, both internally and externally, this is not where the world wants to go, not even the Chinese people.

  26. I would like you to be right, for sure. But what numbers would keep the status quo? The USA would have to increase to about 6% growth and China would have to stay on this level, i.e. no boost from 5G or ANN. Pretty unlikely, in my opinion. But as I said, I would vastly prefer the USA as the dominant world player to China…

  27. With all the elites and all the tech on the side of illiberalism and just vying for money I'm not so sure it will happen as you describe. What prevents google from just implementing some soft form of sencure to please China? The same with Facebook and twitter..

    Want an example? Well Tesla and a bunch of other car manufacturers are suing the Trump administration for the tarifs on Chinese products. I.e. they do not want to be a part of curbing China if it costs them revenue. Elon wants to fight carbon dioxide, but he doesn't really have an opinion on free speech… And I say that as someone who admires Elon Musk profoundly for his technological leadership and industrial genious.

  28. To be frank, China's GDP at purchasing power parity (PPP) is almost 30% higher than the US. I hold this measure as more important. On the other hand, China has been inflating its growth numbers for more than a decade partly in order to demoralize the world to submission. The favorable economic outcome of the Pandemic to China will give it an additional impetus for vying for world dominance.

    As the US is retreating from the world stage China has shown that it already controls the WHO and likely other global institutions with its increasing financial support.

    Eventually we will wake up to this new cold reality. We still have the other powers on our side, Japan, India, Australia, Canada, Europe will eventually Join, and after some sitting on the fence Russia as well, as China power grab is globally hostile in nature.

    The quicker we grasp the situation and coordinate with our allies to quell China, the lower the cost will be. China is playing a sophisticated power game of a kind the world hasn't seen yet. Yet, with our allies we are stronger and will always be, and in the end, the world wants progress while China represent regression and progress usually wins!

  29. The whole premise is silly. That premise is that the growth rates or trends are to be taken only from the data prior to and including the China virus. There are significant signs that the US economy has been accelerating its growth. Once recovery happens in 2021, the growth is very likely to be much higher than before. Furthermore, we are beginning to see a clampdown on the CCP’s predatory practices and they are this minute losing industry which is being repatriated to the US and other countries. The CCP has also managed to tick off pretty much all of its neighbors and trading partners aside the from the US. China exports are already falling. It is quite likely that in 2021 the China GDP will contract instead of expand, not to mention other weather and political factors (Hong Kong, Taiwan, etc.) it does not seem likely that the CCP will return to anything like it was before this year.

  30. More or less what I have been saying for years now.
    Trump and the USA has been defeated
    Site Oil Price reports that Iran has been selling oil at go-go and they have started collaborating with China to promote the yuan in a 600$B deal.
    Iran will repost a recover next year and they are out of the woods.
    "Maximum pressure" has been defeated.
    Attacks on Huawei and Tiktok are not significant.
    China is poised to overtake the USA well before the end of this decade as the largest economy and they will sell top fighter jets to the Iranians as soon as October as long as military equipment
    The USA will not be able to do anything about it

    That is it

    It is Game Set and Match for Iran

    Da L.ukke

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