US COVID Deaths Forecast for the Next 3 Weeks

The major forecasting models for US COVID deaths for the next three weeks have a low prediction of 18,000 new COVID deaths to 39,000. This predicting from now to March 20, 2021.

The path of the pandemic for the next 6-10 weeks is important to see if variants of the virus are causing more problems in spite of significant vaccinations. 66.5 million vaccines have been administered in the USA. Vaccinations in the US are at 1.5 million per day now and should rise to 3 million per day by April.

The four models in the middle of 11 models covered at Fivethirtyeight are forecasting 31,000 to 36,000 new deaths by March 20, 2021.

Johns Hopkins currently reports 507,000 total US COVID deaths. Cumulative World COVID deaths are over 2.5 million.

The seven day moving average for US daily COVID deaths is still at 2000-2150 per day.

The US has about 15,000 COVID ICU beds occupied. The peak of COVID ICU bed occupancy was 29,000.

SOURCES- Fivethirtyeight, CDC, Johns Hopkins
Written By Brian Wang,

26 thoughts on “US COVID Deaths Forecast for the Next 3 Weeks”

  1. Neither am I, it would be a waste of expensive technology, there isn't that much for 5G to take over in my case 😉

  2. 0.001%, but you did not address abc's actual statement…though I don't agree with his/her statement. 
    If you are addressing the logic, you have to go along with the "If" and then show how the conclusion does not follow that the military types would die first. Such as supporting the idea that military types are not the most stupid. Which, I think, is quite doable.

  3. Comparing deaths from a disease to the deaths from war is the type of sophistry only a propagandist would love.

  4. I'm due for my shot in approximately May. By then we really will see if the 5G network takes over your brain or something.

    (I am not worried about the prospect myself.)

  5. I have no idea what you are trying to say here Kehvan.

    I'm pretty sure Mindbreaker isn't personally responsible for Covid-19.

  6. I recommend you take a look at the Dept of Defense web site. You'll note that the military's case fatality rate is 0.000001%. this is primarily due to the high level of health and physical fitness of your average service member.

  7. Australia got most of its cases early. Initially, the fatality rate was high because no one knew the best way to treat it. Since then we have learned which steroid to use, how much to use and when to use it to prevent the cytokine storm deaths. We know to delay the use of ventilators. And we know to put people on their bellies rather than their backs.
    No doubt Australian doctors know all this now, so any current and future patients in Australia should have the same chances if they were in a European or American hospital. Probably a little bit better as there would be more attention, while US and European hospitals are much busier. They might even give you one of those monoclonal antibody treatments, that you have to be rich, powerful, famous, or related to someone in the hospital, to get in the US.

  8. It is a comparison of deaths of people. That is totally legit. Analogies and comparisons don't have to have all features similar, just the one you are looking at.
    I would point out, however, that the years of life lost are quite a bit different. The average person dying of Covid has 12 years left otherwise. Those soldiers were young and had, I don't know, 52+ more years. Maybe 45 more for WWI soldiers. These tended to be healthy people with no obvious defects, so they probably would have lived a bit longer than the average person. We could compare to average lifespan of WW2 veterans reasonably assuming that healthier and less healthy soldiers had virtually the same risk of dying in the war, but 325k of them are still alive, and you don't really know when they will die. And while the vast majority of WWI veterans are now deceased, the Spanish flu and other dieases also killed many soldiers in WWI, and so there is a lot of room to doubt that those that died were equally as healthy as those that survived, on average. So the average number of years lost is somewhat in the air. 
    The experts say those dying of Covid had 12 years left in them on average, if they had not contracted the disease. That number will probably increase as many of those over 65 have now been vaccinated, so a greater fraction of fatalities will be from people in their 40s-early 60s.

  9. The number of daily deaths should be falling to reflect the decrease in the daily infections. Its about a four to six week lag. Infection Peak was about Jan 8th. I figure a month from now daily deaths will be less than 1,000. So deaths for the next month will be about 36,000.

  10. We'll see – the numbers have been going down a lot, but we're still running about 2100-2200 a day averaged out.

  11. A peculiar comparison, effects of a respiratory virus vs wars – what's the basis other than total numbers. What conclusions should be drawn from this comparison? Wouldn't it be better to compare against previous epidemics, like the 1919 Spanish Flu, or Yellow Fever epidemics of the early 1800s?

  12. But then:
    "30/10/2020 — The average age of death from COVID-19 in Australia currently sits at 85 – higher than the average life expectancy."
    As soon as the vaccination is available for me I roll up my sleeve. But the way things are going here, it won't be for quite some time. There is no emergency here, but I am not happy with the complacency.

  13. With around the same number of US people killed due to Covid as WWI and WWII combined, your message is worthy of a Darwin Award. Congrats.

    1. Depends on the population and how the infections are distributed. eg. Australia is 3.4%.
    2. Vaccinations reported greatly decrease the severity of the illness, even if you do get infected (which is itself reduced).
  14. I work for the Marine Corps and I was able to get the first dose of the Moderna vaccine today. No adverse effects so far. Looking forward to getting the second.

    I can't wait for people to stop whining about COVID. It's such a simple disease to prevent getting if you just follow a few simple precautions. Of course if you are an undisciplined, overweight, heavy smoker / drinker than yeah you should be seriously worried. But that's your problem created by your own stupidity, not mine.

  15. The coronavirus cold is over blown…. and yes, I've known one person who died of it… but they had other health problems.

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