The The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) was named the number one think tank in the United States as well as the defense and national security center of excellence for 2016-2018 by the University of Pennsylvania’s annual think tank report. The Global Go To Think Tank Index, from the Think Tanks and Civil Societies Program at the University of Pennsylvania’s Lauder Institute, examines the role policy institutes play in governments and civil societies. Over 8,000 think tanks around the world were evaluated across a range of categories in this year’s report.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) cited Brian Wang and Nextbigfuture as a source on page 40 and page 42 of the 191 page of the Updated Report: Chinese Strategy and Military Forces in 2021.
The 2021 China report included an analysis of China’s Belt and Road, which is the section citing Brian Wang and Nextbigfuture. I made it easier for them to find the US Congressional Analysis of the Belt and Road.
Nextbigfuture analysis: China is developing vast superiority to Taiwan’s military. China could take Taiwan if Taiwan did not have the will to resist and the US did not inject military deterrence.
If there was strong resistance then the US could easily cut China off from oil imports. China currently needs to import about 70% of its oil which is about 10 million barrels per day. China has a 400-500 million barrel strategic reserve. This oil reserve could easily last 50 days. China could ration oil and stretch the strategic reserve for many months. China has massive infrastructure vulnerabilities. There are many huge dams that could be hit with one conventional missile each. These things could also be hit with software attacks. China can be strong and intimidating with its offensive capability but China is made up of glass cannons.
Any pre-invasion military buildup would be obvious from satellite and aerial imaging.
The US was weak against Russia when Russia went for Crimea (Ukraine). If China tried any pseudo military action like Russia’s Crimea campaign this would make the choices less stark. It would also be risky. Miscalculations on any side could lead to full-scale conflict.
Iraq thought the US would not provide military support to Kuwait but Iraq was wrong. China might think that the US will not provide military support to Taiwan. Iraq forgot how much oil matters to the US. China might forget how much Taiwan Semiconductors matter to the US.
China nuclear weapon posture is shifting. Nextbigfuture reported that China is buiding about 400 new nuclear silos.
Written by Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.