I, Brian Wang, have a new youtube video explaining the iron LFP battery tsunami that started coming out of China in 2021. This is a massive earthquake that hit the EV World. The financial and technological shockwaves and continuing impact will be felt from 2022-2026.
I go over in detail the clear evidence that this has happened.
CATL had four times as many monthly batteries installations in December, 2021 as they did in May, 2021.
CATL, SVolt, CALB, Gotion, BYD have made combined battery factory starts deploying over $100 billion in investments. Those factories have mining contracts and contracts with EV companies in order to get the bank and government support for construction.
There will be enough LFP batteries for 50 million electric cars or more in 2025.
The faster transition has hundreds of billions of dollars in investment. I am pointing out what major companies are collectively doing. It is not just ramping up some spreadsheet speculation. I am saying here is what has happened to the battery supply chain and here is what will be happening to it.
Tesla made a prediction that they would have 500,000 cars per year in 2020. Tesla made that of 500,000 cars per year prediction in 2017. Why was that prediction so accurate ? 500,000 cars is the number of cars with the battery pack size of the Model 3 that could be made using a fully ramped the Nevada Panasonic-Tesla battery factory. Tesla ended up not fully ramping the Nevada factory. They got some more batteries from LG Chem and started getting some LFP batteries from CATL for minor production levels in late 2020.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
17 thoughts on “Iron LFP Battery Tsunami”
Rereading my earlier comment about it taking to 2034 to replace just half of the internal combustion in the developed world, perhaps I was a bit too negative. What maters is the number of miles driven in electric vehicles vs gas/Diesel. I suspect there is a half-life to autos. And many of those that operate more years, operate less miles per year. And some autos are very old skewing the average. So, I am going out on a limb, and say that electric could make up 85% of vehicles actually on the road at any given moment in less than 20 years after virtually every new vehicle is electric. This may also require the vehicles to present a superior driving experience, and reduced cost of ownership.
Though, there are issues. The main one being that used internal combustion are often shipped to less developed countries, and continue operating. For example most of the cars in Russia are used cars, often cars that have been totaled, and then are bent back into shape in Russia. If internal combustion cars are not crushed, they will likely be driven by somebody somewhere, and thus not displaced. My info on Russia could be old, but doubtless, if the Russians are no longer buying them, then other countries are: https://www.nytimes.com/2003/02/12/business/japan-s-used-cars-find-new-lives-on-russian-roads.html
This means we must prioritize the crushing of gas and Diesel vehicles, if we are to make headway. We also need low cost new electrics that ideally are competitive with used gas/Diesel.
Never let facts get in the way of a good story.
Show us the data
Brian, would you post the charts used in your video?
If you can find the short video of Petra about half way down the Quaise site, it just is running for me, that has been out for months, without much explanation. It is pretty direct!
Have they actually drilled any holes? Thanks t could have interesting mining applications if it is in fact quite efficient
For perspective, we should bear in mind that it takes many years to replace the fleet of autos in a country, even if all new cars were electric: "Passenger cars are now on average 11.5 years old in the European Union, vans 11.6 years, trucks 13 years and buses 11.7 years."
In the US it is 12.1 years.
That suggests that it will take 11 or 12 years to replace 1/2 of the cars if there is no resistance, and the prices are comparable. So, 2034 to get half way there, in the more prosperous countries in the developed World. That is without increased incentives to buy electric and increased costs involved with internal combustion.
And the largest consumer of fuel by share in the US, pickup trucks, tend to have the longest lives…often being rebuilt.
If we can't make all the new pickup trucks electric immediately, I think we should make the balance natural gas with regenerative breaking. That does not necessarily have to be electric regeneration, kinetic and hydraulic are viable as well. I'd also like to see titanium unsprung weight: axles, springs, even wires in the tires. Wheels and hubs can be other light metals like magnesium and aluminum alloys. Lug nuts, and wheel studs can be titanium or titanium alloy.
According to this source, Germany is at 17% BEV, which is much more than I thought. Still though, not 30%..
So China is at a rate of 21-23% BEV in January? That would translate to more than 5 million BEVs in China this year. I don't think this is correct. Last numbers I heard were 3 million BEVs in China this year. Which is plenty, by the way…
And Germany is at 30% BEV? I do not believe it. I think that hybrid + plugin hybrid + BEV is at 30%, but not pure BEV.
Dug-in business interests wanting to continue pushing their current products and services. Again, with this mindset, we’ll be left behind on the new energy revolution.
Bring on the iron batteries. They’re cheap, rugged and give the finger to the warlords in cobalt-rich Congo.
I remove plug in hybrid numbers whenever I see them. It will become pure BEV
Let them commit to batteries for everything, let us do H and ammonia and power beaming for the things they are better at, and use batteries as needed. It is similar to when one Space guy wants to go to another planet, and one wants to go to, well, Space. As O'Neill recommends. One is going to prove to be short sighted.
Yes, O'Neill/SSP/Power Beaming is pretty clear tech, after 50 years. *If only* one person such as you seeing this were sufficient! Earth to Earth Power Beaming, using SSP redirectors, never made much sense to me because there was no extra Earth power to beam, and getting it in Space is easier. That has changed temporarily at least, with the overbuilding of intermittent Earth collectors, cheap cells and windmills.
Quaise is a separate thing. Most see anything O'Neill as far more "out there" than Quaise, I bet. You may have, at one time in the past. Give others, and yourself, a chance to learn. *Mix*ing it in with other techs is not to indicate they are dependent upon it. Quaise can benefit greatly from and help Power Beaming, however. "not ready for prime time" is why you do not see Janov/O'Neill/Quaise prime time, you see it in The Next Big Future, where intelligent, ahead of the crowd people comment. I spent my early years in the "Oil Capital of the World" and went to the big exhibitions. This was in the 50s. They can do Quaise, trust me. Even so, Quaise just makes heat, so is doomed in the electricity market long term, as is all other fusion, fission or fossil thermal elctricity, by LSP/SSP. Don't even build any more turbines! Helion/MIGMA is the exception here, making electricity directly, but can't wait short term.
So are the percentages of electric cars for China, Germany etc numbers for BEVs or for plug in hybrids + BEVs?
Unclear at this point…
Dan, you might want to keep your focus on satellite solar power and power beaming (terrestrial and space to earth). My general impression was that these things do not really require any technological breakthrough or R&D with uncertain outcomes. When you mix in the not-here-yet-and-a-bit-unbelieveable millimeter wave drill and geothermal energy speculation it makes me think the solar and beaming stuff must also be too "out there" and not ready for prime time. (Incidentally the unusual in psychological stuff you put in also makes the solar stuff seem more likely to be crackpot.) You'd be more convincing if you didn't throw around the kitchen sink. I hadn't really thought through O'Neil colonies much until seeing all your many comments here on NBF but after reading your comments and then reading, considering, and looking elsewhere, I'm convinced doing stuff in space makes more sense than on a planetary body. If we get fusion, great, that might even make it easier to settle space even though it is obviates SPS.
Shame that the West and the US have not tried to grab a bigger chunk of this wave… A dangerous short-sighted mishap.
Quaise is a way to get heat, so hooking it up to existing steam turbines is a very great improvement over fossil, and a cheaper heat source than thermal fission or thermal fusion. At the same time, Earth to Earth power beaming is here to distribute intermittent source and balance load, so the Quaise full time full blast turbines will add to the party. Now, wind in windy places and solar in sunny places can jump in without the messy nimby and inefficiency of being in the wrong place. Hello Helion and H. Earth to Earth power beaming starts Space Solar, and off we go, powering all those cars. And the Future.
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