Improved LFP Batteries Will Make a $25K Tesla Model 3 in 2026

Jordan Giesege of the Limiting described the 20-35% range improvement possible by increasing the silicon in the anode of iron LFP batteries.

This could be used to reduce the weight and lower the cost while keeping the 260 mile range of a made in China Model 3. This could take the cost down from a subsidize $40,000 to $30,000-35000 in 2024. This is key to making Tesla competitive in the $30k-40k EV car segment. This increases the addressable market in China from 20% of the market to about 35% of the market. It increases Europe’s addressable market from 50% to about 80%.

The continued improvement in batteries would make a $25k Model 3 Standard range achievable in 2026.

12 thoughts on “Improved LFP Batteries Will Make a $25K Tesla Model 3 in 2026”

  1. Do we have any actual evidence that Tesla is working on LFP cells in any way? I’ve only heard Tesla say that they will use it in packs a.s.o. but nothing really clear cut that says that they are working on the LFP-cells. We also have Drew Baglinos continues insistance that the 4680 is not suited for LFP… And we have seen zero evidence that Tesla is working in house on anything else that the 4680 form factor.

    We do have a trickle of information flowing in through Jeff Dahns groups publications and known acquisitions of start-ups (lately: Sila Nano). These “breadcrumbs” seem to indicate that Tesla is pursuing a useless super high cycle battery and some far off in the future higher energy density battery. But Tesla does not seem to be active in LFP or any other high volume/low price technology.

    I’d be happy to be wrong…

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  2. There’s also been a recent “breakthrough” in lithium sulfur batteries that (demonstrated in the lab) allows 2x more charge cycles and 3x more charge capacity than a lithium ion battery – and potentially up to 8x the charge density. Sulfur is cheaper/more abundant than nickel and cobalt, which would be eliminated. The researchers also see potential to replace lithium with cheaper/more abundant sodium.

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s42004-022-00626-2
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tHRoefpqMaM

    There are others doing lithium-sulfur batteries who are closer to mass production. Lyten ( https://lyten.com/ ) has a Li-S battery that can get 1400 charge-discharge cycles. I think it is based on a lab breakthrough published about 8 years ago, caging sulfur in graphene.

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    • Google down 27 percent
      Amazon down 40
      Apple down 27
      Microsoft down 27
      Netflix 72
      Tesla 44
      Fords 44
      whats the coincidence specific to Tesla?

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    • The whole market is down and the recession plus rising interest rates will move more money out and into the bond markets for the next several years.

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  3. At a new price of $25K, I *might* be able to buy a used Tesla a few years later.

    Of course, the current policy of the government is to make electric cars appear more affordable by driving up the cost of operating internal combustion cars….

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    • Maybe…
      But what is the root cause of the increase in gas prices? If taxes, then you are right. If not, then it’s not really a function of government policies….except for the crazy policy of throwing money around like a drunkard in a strip bar…

      By the way, I liked your bearded picture better.

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      • My bearded picture? I haven’t had a beard since I was in college, maybe ’81 at the latest. Needed it at “The Ice Planet Houghton” to keep my face from freezing. Good for storing pens and pencils, too. I don’t think I’ve ever used one of those pictures here, though.

        Anyway, the root cause of the increase in gas prices? Strictly supply and demand. In this case, the administration has pursued a relentless policy of reducing supply, so prices went up. They’d like to blame it on the war in Ukraine, but the rise started as soon as it was clear Biden was going to take office.

        It’s not as though they hid their desire for higher gas prices. As I said, they view it as a way to force people to buy electric cars.

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      • The Biden administration has telegraphed it’s intention to persecute the fossil fuels industry since the 2020 campaign, and proved it by it’s idiotic actions on the keystone pipeline. Years of planned expansions of drilling, and refining have not been pursued because the Biden admin has made them unlikely to be profitable. The Ukraine-Russia war brought on by the Biden administration, and the economic sanctions by the Biden administration has driven up the price of all fuels.
        When it comes to forcing fuel costs higher, it’s all Biden, all the time.

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        • We’ll if a predictable and steady tax on carbon is unacceptable to save civilization, then I guess what is happening now will have to do.

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