In 2018, Nextbigfuture predicted that Canada would have 40 million people in 2023. Statistics Canada determined that Canada had 40 million people on June 16, 2023. I correctly made this prediction 6 years before it happened. The UN population “actual” numbers are off by 5% for Canada. The UN predictions are off by 20% or more on major population forecasts in as little at 10-15 years. It is not just that I am right, and was correct years ahead of time but that bad numbers are causing problems for world planning and good problem solving.
The Statscan Agency was predicting Canada would reach 40 million people from 2024-2026. Statscan was unable to make the prediction of 2023 a year before it happened. The medium, most likely forecast was always around 2025-2026.
Statistics Canada is the agency with hundreds of staff who only have the job of tracking and forecasting Canada’s population.
In 2020, Statscan released population projections using the 2018 population data for Canada.
In 2023, Statscan forecasted a low, medium and high population forecast for Canada using the last updated information from 2021.
There are many population focused sites like World Population Review who are still wrong about Canada’s population. They are using UN data. The current population of Canada is 38,978,207 based on projections of the latest United Nations data. The UN estimates the July 1, 2024 population at 39,107,046.
Statistics Canada has a live tracking of Canada’s population at 40.87 million today. The UN has a 5% error that has existed for several years.
The United Nations (UN) has made population projections for more than 50 years. However, the UN’s population projections often differ from reality over longer periods of time. Various analysis have shown 15-30% error in age structure population numbers.
The UN population projections are used for all kinds of analysis.
According to the UN’s medium variant projection, China’s population will be below 800 million by 2100. This is based on the UN’s forecast that China’s population will decline from 1.426 billion in 2022 to 1.313 billion by 2050. The UN assumes that China’s birthrate will recover from about total fertility rate of 1.1 to about 1.5. The Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences experts a drop to 1.1, pushing China’s population down to 587 million in 2100.
The forecasts of future climate, energy usage and pollution can be grossly skewed by making 35-60% errors on major population forecasts.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
Are we talking about the Engineers that immigrated there for new businesses after the US limited Green Card status ?
But like the Roman Empire, Canada is crumbling from within while the semi savage races keep pouring in.
How racist of you.
He’s right.