January 28, 2015

China will pass Europe in nominal GDP this year

The likely near term situation for when China will pass the exchange rate adjusted GDP for the USA and the collective GDP of Europe is becoming clearer based upon statistical method changes and more clearly apparent currency and GDP projections for the five years. Last month Nextbigfuture had forecast that China would pass Europe on nominal GDP in 2016 but now the accelerated decline the Euro seems to indicate a 2015 date for the pass.

December 16, 2014, China was expected to adjust its GDP based upon accounting changes and a new business census. This should boost China's (including Hong Kong and Macau) GDP to about 13.7 trillion in 2015. However, China's currency also weakened by 3% against the US dollar. The business census boosted China's GDP by about 4%. The accounting changes are still expected this year and would boost China's GDP by 10%. China's 2015 GDP should be about 13.3 trillion.

Most analysts are now expecting the Euro to have parity (trade 1 to 1) with the US dollar before the end of this year (2015).

Just last month the projections was for weakening through 2017 but the weakening is happening faster
2014 1.24 US dollars to 1 Euro
2015 1.15 US dollars to 1 Euro [now 1.0 US dollar to 1 Euro]
2016 1.05 US dollars to 1 Euro
2017 0.95 US dollars to 1 Euro

The European Union had (28 countries) a GDP of 13.07 trillion Euros at the end of 2013. The Euro could head to 0.75-0.90 US dollars to 1 Euro which it was back in 2001.

The IMF is expecting Europe GDP growth to be about 1.5% or less.

The National Intelligence council made a 2012 forecast of the world in 2030. It is clearing shaping up that Europe, Japan and Russia will be far weaker economically than any of the three scenarios that they had. Japan is likely going to send its currency down to about half of its current value of the next six to ten years.

India could also be weaker unless Modi can strengthen the economy and currency.

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