The economic consultancy CEBR (Centre for Economics and Business Research) has gotten coverage for making a new forecast of GDP for the 30 largest economies out to 2028. The main coverage is that they predict that China’s will not pass the US on an exchange rate basis until 2028. They are using 2012 dollars so they are removing US inflation from their numbers.
Nextbigfuture believes the CEBR predictions are garbage. China will pass the US economy on a nominal exchange basis by 2020. The CEBR is predicting a very strong US dollar and very strong US economic growth. They are predicting for the US to vastly strengthen against Germany and most other countries.
The Economist has an online calculator for forecasting when China will pass the US. In order to match up to what the CEBR prediction has, here are the parameters.
So they are predicting that China will have 1.3% more inflation that the US and will have 1.3% currency appreciation and that China will have 1.5% more GDP growth than the US. In order to get to $32 trillion in 2028, the US has to have 4.5% GDP growth. The same result is achieved if the projections include 1.5% US inflation. Then they are projecting 4.5% GDP growth for China and 3.0% for the US.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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