China should become a high income country by the World Bank definition by about 2023. A high-income economy is defined by the World Bank as a country with a gross national income per capita US$12,236 or more in 2016, calculated using the Atlas method.
China GNI per capita should be about 2017 $8800 2018 $9300 2019 $9800 (about the current level of Malaysia 2020 $10200 (about current world average GNI per capita) 2021 $10800 2022 $11500 2023 $12100 (At about World Bank high income definition) 2030 $16000 (about the current level of Uruguay) 2040 $22000 (about the current level of Saudi Arabia) 2050 $29000-32000 (about the current level of Spain, Italy and South Korea)
Nextbigfuture thinks that China’s movement up the World Bank classification may shift the definition upwards. The definition was slightly higher 2012-2015.
China’s 1.4 billion people could more than double the population that is classified as being in World Bank high income countries.
This progress would put China just past the World Average of GNI per capita, past Malaysia and near the level of Poland and Hungary.
Xu Hongcai, an economist from the China Center for International Economic Exchanges projects by 2020, China’s economic growth rate of more than 6.5%, 2025 may fall to about 5%, 2030 may be only 4%, and then stable at 3% -4% for some time.
The Atlas method is a method used by the World Bank to estimate the size of economies in terms of gross national income (GNI) in U.S. dollars.
A country’s GNI in local (national) currency is converted into U.S. dollars using the Atlas conversion factor, which uses a three-year average of exchange rates to smooth effects of transitory exchange rate fluctuations, adjusted for the difference between the rate of inflation in the country (using the country’s GDP deflator), and that in a number of developed countries
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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