USA weak but long recovery could last another ten years

Based upon elapsed time since the last recession the USA is due for another recession. However, the US recovery has been exceptionally weak. Previous growth cycles in the USA have had 40% to 90% cumulative GDP growth. The USA is just now reaching 40% cumulative growth. If the USA were to have 80% to 90% cumulative growth in this growth cycle, then the USA could have another eight to ten years before the next recession.

The Atlanta Federal Reserve current GDP Now estimate for third quarter GDP growth is 4.3%. The USA had 4.1% GDP growth in the second quarter. The USA is currently on track about 3.5% to 4.0% GDP growth for all of 2018.

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