Based upon elapsed time since the last recession the USA is due for another recession. However, the US recovery has been exceptionally weak. Previous growth cycles in the USA have had 40% to 90% cumulative GDP growth. The USA is just now reaching 40% cumulative growth. If the USA were to have 80% to 90% cumulative growth in this growth cycle, then the USA could have another eight to ten years before the next recession.
The Atlanta Federal Reserve current GDP Now estimate for third quarter GDP growth is 4.3%. The USA had 4.1% GDP growth in the second quarter. The USA is currently on track about 3.5% to 4.0% GDP growth for all of 2018.
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It’s been the slowest up until now.Can’t link to it of course but search for alistair.pott Graph comparing job losses in US recessions””; There’s a really useful graphic there. Somebody may be able to find an updated version.Recessions have generally followed a trajectory where there is a sharp drop in the economy”” and then a recovery *at higher than normal growth rates* which continues until the economy has recovered to where it would have been had normal growth rates been uninterrupted. A dip superimposed on gradual growth.But the recessions and recoveries since the 1980’s have NOT followed this trajectory. Rather there appears to have been some sort of change in the US economy and instead of a fast rebound to pre-recession economics the economy just hit bottom and then resumes growing from there. These recessions unlike the 1980 and prior ones represented actual sustained loss of economic growth never recovered. A downward staircase superimposed on that gradual growth.Until now”” “”””the great recession”””” hasn’t HAD a recovery. We just fell over a cliff”” and then picked ourselves up at the bottom”” and started rebuilding. I’m not sure the lessons of 1981 and prior recessions are really applicable to the new sort.”””
USA recovery could last until 2028? That sounds good but Medicare goes bankrupt in 2026 and Social Security follows in 2034. Current federal budget deficit is $1 Trillion a year. Do you have a pair of those rose colored glasses? Because I am not seeing it
Yo Matteo Martini! Looks like you are the one full of BS about US GDP growth, not everyone else. Mark Stewart! Don’t worry, I hear Trump is building 10,000 Scrooge McDuck Money Bins to stash all this generated wealth that the Democrats scream would never happen under Trump.
I’m pretty sure the Austrian school says boom bust cycles are required to drive out bad investments and are a natural effect of using credit. We’ve gone full Keynesian though, so they can paper over recessions by pulling forward demand. According to the Austrian school view you can’t have a real recovery if you can’t drive out bad investments, which aligns with the non-recovery recovery we’ve had. Remember the bailouts for all the bad investments last time? I think a pretty good analogy is forest fires. They have a natural cycle that if interrupted can lead to disastrous results.
It’s been the slowest up until now. Can’t link to it, of course, but search for “alistair.pott Graph comparing job losses in US recessions”; There’s a really useful graphic there. Somebody may be able to find an updated version. Recessions have generally followed a trajectory where there is a sharp drop in the economy, and then a recovery *at higher than normal growth rates*, which continues until the economy has recovered to where it would have been had normal growth rates been uninterrupted. A dip superimposed on gradual growth. But the recessions and recoveries since the 1980’s have NOT followed this trajectory. Rather, there appears to have been some sort of change in the US economy, and instead of a fast rebound to pre-recession economics, the economy just hit bottom, and then resumes growing from there. These recessions, unlike the 1980 and prior ones, represented actual sustained loss of economic growth, never recovered. A downward staircase superimposed on that gradual growth. Until now, “the great recession” hasn’t HAD a recovery. We just fell over a cliff, and then picked ourselves up at the bottom, and started rebuilding. I’m not sure the lessons of 1981 and prior recessions are really applicable to the new sort.
USA recovery could last until 2028? That sounds good but Medicare goes bankrupt in 2026 and Social Security follows in 2034. Current federal budget deficit is $1 Trillion a year. Do you have a pair of those rose colored glasses? Because I am not seeing it
Yo Matteo Martini! Looks like you are the one full of BS about US GDP growth not everyone else.Mark Stewart! Don’t worry I hear Trump is building 10000 Scrooge McDuck Money Bins to stash all this generated wealth that the Democrats scream would never happen under Trump.
I’m pretty sure the Austrian school says boom bust cycles are required to drive out bad investments and are a natural effect of using credit. We’ve gone full Keynesian though so they can paper over recessions by pulling forward demand. According to the Austrian school view you can’t have a real recovery if you can’t drive out bad investments which aligns with the non-recovery recovery we’ve had. Remember the bailouts for all the bad investments last time? I think a pretty good analogy is forest fires. They have a natural cycle that if interrupted can lead to disastrous results.
I think to do the math right, you have to subtract anything added to the deficit. It is like saying the new car you bought is yours, when the bank owns most of it. There is a site that shows the figures by year going back all the way to 1914: google “U.S. Debt by President by Dollar and Percent”. Trump appears to be planning to add roughly $1.2 trillion to the debt for each of his 4 years. If this is some sort of stimulus, why does it continue each year? Clinton was somewhat fiscally responsible. Though, he cut fission research and retained funding fusion research. Magnetic containment fusion has gone nowhere. It had ample testing by then. There is no point to making a design that will never be cost effective even if it worked. While the fission that was cut was liquid metal+rods, which is certainly safer than water cooled stuff. They needed to go full scale…not kill it. The molten salt stuff was cut by Nixon decades earlier. And good times are meaningless unless you have something enduring to show for it, like infrastructure, health, educational attainments, low personal and corporate debt levels, low crime, environmental assets rather than building up environmental liabilities. I think we are doing a reasonably good job not making more environmental damage in the US, but we have a huge amount of damage to clean up…mostly lead, but other toxins as well. And though I am pleased with the fracking in general (though ideally we would be exporting far more of the oil and gas we produce, while the grid moves to nuclear, and we make our transport systems much more efficient and quicker), we must do a better job of avoiding leaking lots of methane into the air. And I am concerned about all the coal ash. There just is no good way to dispose of that. That is going to be doing damage for a long time. Astronomical quantities. “In 2012, 470 coal-fired electric utilities generated about 110 million tons of coal ash.” That is one year. So we are talking
I think to do the math right you have to subtract anything added to the deficit. It is like saying the new car you bought is yours when the bank owns most of it. There is a site that shows the figures by year going back all the way to 1914: google U.S. Debt by President by Dollar and Percent””. Trump appears to be planning to add roughly $1.2 trillion to the debt for each of his 4 years. If this is some sort of stimulus”” why does it continue each year? Clinton was somewhat fiscally responsible. Though he cut fission research and retained funding fusion research. Magnetic containment fusion has gone nowhere. It had ample testing by then. There is no point to making a design that will never be cost effective even if it worked. While the fission that was cut was liquid metal+rods which is certainly safer than water cooled stuff. They needed to go full scale…not kill it. The molten salt stuff was cut by Nixon decades earlier.And good times are meaningless unless you have something enduring to show for it like infrastructure health educational attainments low personal and corporate debt levels low crime environmental assets rather than building up environmental liabilities.I think we are doing a reasonably good job not making more environmental damage in the US but we have a huge amount of damage to clean up…mostly lead but other toxins as well. And though I am pleased with the fracking in general (though ideally we would be exporting far more of the oil and gas we produce while the grid moves to nuclear and we make our transport systems much more efficient and quicker)”” we must do a better job of avoiding leaking lots of methane into the air. And I am concerned about all the coal ash. There just is no good way to dispose of that. That is going to be doing damage for a long time. Astronomical quantities. “”””In 2012″””” 470 coal-fired electric utilities generated about 110 million tons of coal ash.”””” That is one year. So we are talking”
The USA is currently on track about 3.5% to 4.0% GDP growth for all of 2018.” No it is not Better say 2~2.5%at best And US public debt is growing 7% per year, so go figure how long it will last
For every one who is really interested to know how things to, I would suggest to read this article Google “iranian reason trump cancelled iran deal” and find the article from iranian in the 10th position in Google have a good read it is all about keeping dollar as the reserve currency Thank
The USA is currently on track about 3.5{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} to 4.0{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} GDP growth for all of 2018.””No it is not Better say 2~2.5{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12}at best And US public debt is growing 7{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} per year”””” so go figure how long it will last”””
For every one who is really interested to know how things to I would suggest to read this article Google iranian reason trump cancelled iran deal”” and find the article from iranian in the 10th position in Google have a good read it is all about keeping dollar as the reserve currency Thank”””
They can not do it with Iran Iran is way too strong , they have strong defences and the backing of Russia and China The US is screwed They can not invade eny more
The US wants a Casus Belli so they can invade, they think that by pulling out they can bait Iran into pursuing nuclear weapons
The fuel rods are solid metal – the coolant is liquid Na. Kinda got stuff mixed up there.
While the fission that was cut was liquid metal rods, which is certainly safer than water cooled stuff.” I guess you are talking about IFR, which wasn’t completed but lives on as GE’s PRISM. Don’t know how you can reason that it is “certainly safer than water cooled stuff.
Today Iran is way too strong for US to invade them And if they bomb Iran they will get nukes for sure
They can not do it with Iran Iran is way too strong they have strong defences and the backing of Russia and China The US is screwed They can not invade eny more
The US wants a Casus Belli so they can invade they think that by pulling out they can bait Iran into pursuing nuclear weapons
The fuel rods are solid metal – the coolant is liquid Na. Kinda got stuff mixed up there.
While the fission that was cut was liquid metal rods” which is certainly safer than water cooled stuff.””I guess you are talking about IFR”””” which wasn’t completed but lives on as GE’s PRISM. Don’t know how you can reason that it is “”””certainly safer than water cooled stuff.”””””””
Today Iran is way too strong for US to invade them And if they bomb Iran, they will get nukes for sure
This cycle is a weird one. I suspect rapidly accelerating automation may be one part of it but there are certainly others. Still trying to unravel it, wish me luck. Meantime, look at the usual indicators that a correction is coming. 1. Commercial and industrial loans at commercial banks: a decline indicates recession in progress (currently these loans are growing). 2. Year-over-year decline in stock prices: Recessions follow quickly (not even close to this happening at present). 3. Reversal in the unemployment rate: rate rises more than a quarter point over three consecutive months means recession has probably begun (not now). 4. Corporate/Treasury yield spread. Yield spread between the lowest investment-grade corporate bonds 10-year T-Bills widens to above 200 basis points (about 170 right now). 5. Copper prices: below $2.50 per pound can signal a slowdown (currently about $3.50). 6. Freight Transportation Services Index: downward trend changes lead economic slowdowns by an average of four to five months (this just reached a record high). 7. Declining Australian dollar vs. the U.S. dollar: indicates possible slowing global economy (down a little right now but not much). 8. Oil price spike: Prices are up again, but is it enough? 9. Unemployment: under 4.5% for 3 years can indicate a recession ( this would mean Summer 2020 if it were the only factor). 10. Inverted yield curve: When long-term rates fall below short-term rates (possibly as early as Summer 2019, although, this measure may be declining in significance). But, for those who really like uncertainty, keep in mind that all timelines to a recession are accelerated if we have a big trade war. I suspect, however that some accord will be reached and, because the situation has been so bad for so long, with so many administrations willing to let things slide, getting something less one-sided is going to do good things for the economy, or at least for the stock market. You want doom and gloom? The 2020
This cycle is a weird one. I suspect rapidly accelerating automation may be one part of it but there are certainly others. Still trying to unravel it wish me luck. Meantime look at the usual indicators that a correction is coming.1. Commercial and industrial loans at commercial banks: a decline indicates recession in progress (currently these loans are growing).2. Year-over-year decline in stock prices: Recessions follow quickly (not even close to this happening at present).3. Reversal in the unemployment rate: rate rises more than a quarter point over three consecutive months means recession has probably begun (not now).4. Corporate/Treasury yield spread. Yield spread between the lowest investment-grade corporate bonds 10-year T-Bills widens to above 200 basis points (about 170 right now).5. Copper prices: below $2.50 per pound can signal a slowdown (currently about $3.50). 6. Freight Transportation Services Index: downward trend changes lead economic slowdowns by an average of four to five months (this just reached a record high).7. Declining Australian dollar vs. the U.S. dollar: indicates possible slowing global economy (down a little right now but not much). 8. Oil price spike: Prices are up again but is it enough?9. Unemployment: under 4.5{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} for 3 years can indicate a recession ( this would mean Summer 2020 if it were the only factor).10. Inverted yield curve: When long-term rates fall below short-term rates (possibly as early as Summer 2019 although this measure may be declining in significance).But for those who really like uncertainty keep in mind that all timelines to a recession are accelerated if we have a big trade war. I suspect however that some accord will be reached and because the situation has been so bad for so long with so many administrations willing to let things slide getting something less one-sided is going to do good things for the
Recessions don’t always happen because of the business cycle. Many times recession happens because of unregulated speculation. Right now there is a lot of cash and there are no low risk investments with good returns. All of that money is waiting for a good BS story to create a bubble. And once that bubble pops its bye-bye economy.
They are not as they know that if the Iranian leaders 8the mullahs) will go away they will end up like Iraq or Syria, so they will stay with the Mullahs
If, LOL, Iran is “way too strong for the US to invade”, then it’s a good thing we won’t have to: The Iranian people are taking things into their own hands against the mad mullahs running the country.
Trump administration has been good on economics in general (trade war aside…), but he personally refuses to address entitlements. Politically smart, but that means we’ll have to take more drastic measures when the funding problem can’t be swept under the rug.
Certainly there are real issues. However, promises of gloom & doom run against the experience of the West for the last few centuries. We are better fed, better housed, than at any time in human history. We’ll continue making progress just so long as the eco-Luddites don’t manage to regulate us to death.
Recessions don’t always happen because of the business cycle. Many times recession happens because of unregulated speculation. Right now there is a lot of cash and there are no low risk investments with good returns. All of that money is waiting for a good BS story to create a bubble. And once that bubble pops its bye-bye economy.
They are not as they know that if the Iranian leaders 8the mullahs) will go away they will end up like Iraq or Syria so they will stay with the Mullahs
If LOL Iran is way too strong for the US to invade”””” then it’s a good thing we won’t have to: The Iranian people are taking things into their own hands against the mad mullahs running the country.”””
Trump administration has been good on economics in general (trade war aside…) but he personally refuses to address entitlements. Politically smart but that means we’ll have to take more drastic measures when the funding problem can’t be swept under the rug.
Certainly there are real issues. However promises of gloom & doom run against the experience of the West for the last few centuries. We are better fed better housed than at any time in human history. We’ll continue making progress just so long as the eco-Luddites don’t manage to regulate us to death.
There is always a point where growing is much harder than falling. And we are getting near that point. For instance unemployment is near record low. It will be difficult for it to get any lower. But it would be as easy as hell for it to get worse.
There is always a point where growing is much harder than falling. And we are getting near that point. For instance unemployment is near record low. It will be difficult for it to get any lower. But it would be as easy as hell for it to get worse.
For the homo sapiens sapiens things are truly better For the other hundreds if not thousands of species of mammals routinely abused by humans things are worse
For the homo sapiens sapiens things are truly betterFor the other hundreds if not thousands of species of mammals routinely abused by humans things are worse
no, its ALWAYS business cycle. Business cycle is fancy name for situation where people miscalculate amount of available resurces now and in the future, thus they overspent and misallocate what they have. Regulatory intrusion in free markets can have exactly the same effect, by making people think, they have more than in relatiy. Dude…every single comment you make on NBF is wrong, how is that possible?
no its ALWAYS business cycle. Business cycle is fancy name for situation where people miscalculate amount of available resurces now and in the future thus they overspent and misallocate what they have. Regulatory intrusion in free markets can have exactly the same effect by making people think they have more than in relatiy. Dude…every single comment you make on NBF is wrong how is that possible?
no, its ALWAYS business cycle. Business cycle is fancy name for situation where people miscalculate amount of available resurces now and in the future, thus they overspent and misallocate what they have. Regulatory intrusion in free markets can have exactly the same effect, by making people think, they have more than in relatiy. Dude…every single comment you make on NBF is wrong, how is that possible?
For the homo sapiens sapiens things are truly better
For the other hundreds if not thousands of species of mammals routinely abused by humans things are worse
There is always a point where growing is much harder than falling. And we are getting near that point. For instance unemployment is near record low. It will be difficult for it to get any lower. But it would be as easy as hell for it to get worse.
Recessions don’t always happen because of the business cycle. Many times recession happens because of unregulated speculation. Right now there is a lot of cash and there are no low risk investments with good returns. All of that money is waiting for a good BS story to create a bubble. And once that bubble pops its bye-bye economy.
They are not as they know that if the Iranian leaders 8the mullahs) will go away they will end up like Iraq or Syria, so they will stay with the Mullahs
If, LOL, Iran is “way too strong for the US to invade”, then it’s a good thing we won’t have to: The Iranian people are taking things into their own hands against the mad mullahs running the country.
Trump administration has been good on economics in general (trade war aside…), but he personally refuses to address entitlements. Politically smart, but that means we’ll have to take more drastic measures when the funding problem can’t be swept under the rug.
Certainly there are real issues. However, promises of gloom & doom run against the experience of the West for the last few centuries. We are better fed, better housed, than at any time in human history. We’ll continue making progress just so long as the eco-Luddites don’t manage to regulate us to death.
This cycle is a weird one. I suspect rapidly accelerating automation may be one part of it but there are certainly others. Still trying to unravel it, wish me luck. Meantime, look at the usual indicators that a correction is coming.
1. Commercial and industrial loans at commercial banks: a decline indicates recession in progress (currently these loans are growing).
2. Year-over-year decline in stock prices: Recessions follow quickly (not even close to this happening at present).
3. Reversal in the unemployment rate: rate rises more than a quarter point over three consecutive months means recession has probably begun (not now).
4. Corporate/Treasury yield spread. Yield spread between the lowest investment-grade corporate bonds 10-year T-Bills widens to above 200 basis points (about 170 right now).
5. Copper prices: below $2.50 per pound can signal a slowdown (currently about $3.50).
6. Freight Transportation Services Index: downward trend changes lead economic slowdowns by an average of four to five months (this just reached a record high).
7. Declining Australian dollar vs. the U.S. dollar: indicates possible slowing global economy (down a little right now but not much).
8. Oil price spike: Prices are up again, but is it enough?
9. Unemployment: under 4.5% for 3 years can indicate a recession ( this would mean Summer 2020 if it were the only factor).
10. Inverted yield curve: When long-term rates fall below short-term rates (possibly as early as Summer 2019, although, this measure may be declining in significance).
But, for those who really like uncertainty, keep in mind that all timelines to a recession are accelerated if we have a big trade war. I suspect, however that some accord will be reached and, because the situation has been so bad for so long, with so many administrations willing to let things slide, getting something less one-sided is going to do good things for the economy, or at least for the stock market.
You want doom and gloom? The 2020s are probably going to be a good to great time for those realizing income from invested capital (as if there was ever a bad time to own investments) and progressively less good for those that get most of their income from wages. Look for soaring economic inequality and, in most countries, a populace unwilling to do much about it while they still have food, shelter, and entertainment.
Today Iran is way too strong for US to invade them
And if they bomb Iran, they will get nukes for sure
They can not do it with Iran
Iran is way too strong , they have strong defences and the backing of Russia and China
The US is screwed
They can not invade eny more
The US wants a Casus Belli so they can invade, they think that by pulling out they can bait Iran into pursuing nuclear weapons
The fuel rods are solid metal – the coolant is liquid Na. Kinda got stuff mixed up there.
“While the fission that was cut was liquid metal rods, which is certainly safer than water cooled stuff.”
I guess you are talking about IFR, which wasn’t completed but lives on as GE’s PRISM. Don’t know how you can reason that it is “certainly safer than water cooled stuff.”
“The USA is currently on track about 3.5% to 4.0% GDP growth for all of 2018.”
No it is not
Better say 2~2.5%at best
And US public debt is growing 7% per year, so go figure how long it will last
For every one who is really interested to know how things to, I would suggest to read this article
Google “iranian reason trump cancelled iran deal”
and find the article from iranian in the 10th position in Google
have a good read
it is all about keeping dollar as the reserve currency Thank
I think to do the math right, you have to subtract anything added to the deficit. It is like saying the new car you bought is yours, when the bank owns most of it. There is a site that shows the figures by year going back all the way to 1914: google “U.S. Debt by President by Dollar and Percent”. Trump appears to be planning to add roughly $1.2 trillion to the debt for each of his 4 years. If this is some sort of stimulus, why does it continue each year? Clinton was somewhat fiscally responsible. Though, he cut fission research and retained funding fusion research. Magnetic containment fusion has gone nowhere. It had ample testing by then. There is no point to making a design that will never be cost effective even if it worked. While the fission that was cut was liquid metal+rods, which is certainly safer than water cooled stuff. They needed to go full scale…not kill it. The molten salt stuff was cut by Nixon decades earlier.
And good times are meaningless unless you have something enduring to show for it, like infrastructure, health, educational attainments, low personal and corporate debt levels, low crime, environmental assets rather than building up environmental liabilities.
I think we are doing a reasonably good job not making more environmental damage in the US, but we have a huge amount of damage to clean up…mostly lead, but other toxins as well. And though I am pleased with the fracking in general (though ideally we would be exporting far more of the oil and gas we produce, while the grid moves to nuclear, and we make our transport systems much more efficient and quicker), we must do a better job of avoiding leaking lots of methane into the air.
And I am concerned about all the coal ash. There just is no good way to dispose of that. That is going to be doing damage for a long time. Astronomical quantities. “In 2012, 470 coal-fired electric utilities generated about 110 million tons of coal ash.” That is one year. So we are talking billions of tons…and counting in the environment. And it is full of heavy metals, including radioactive ones. They got the EPA banned from checking the radiation levels. Hundreds of times more radiation released than any of the nuclear power plants in the US.
The failure to insure that pregnant and nursing mothers get enough iodine could also be doing enormous irreparable damage to the next generation.
And generally our soil has been depleted quite a bit. When all the sewage just goes down the river or directly into the ocean, all the nutrients those plants and animals took from the soil is lost. Nitrogen can be restored by by nitrogen fixation, but the rest isn’t coming back unless we process the waste and return it to the soil. No one is even looking into doing that. Not easy because of the medications. Our medications should all be biodegradable.
Aquifer depletion is another concern. Major aquifers are being sucked dry. And when they are, agricultural production…
USA recovery could last until 2028? That sounds good but Medicare goes bankrupt in 2026 and Social Security follows in 2034. Current federal budget deficit is $1 Trillion a year. Do you have a pair of those rose colored glasses? Because I am not seeing it
Yo Matteo Martini! Looks like you are the one full of BS about US GDP growth, not everyone else.
Mark Stewart! Don’t worry, I hear Trump is building 10,000 Scrooge McDuck Money Bins to stash all this generated wealth that the Democrats scream would never happen under Trump.
I’m pretty sure the Austrian school says boom bust cycles are required to drive out bad investments and are a natural effect of using credit. We’ve gone full Keynesian though, so they can paper over recessions by pulling forward demand. According to the Austrian school view you can’t have a real recovery if you can’t drive out bad investments, which aligns with the non-recovery recovery we’ve had. Remember the bailouts for all the bad investments last time? I think a pretty good analogy is forest fires. They have a natural cycle that if interrupted can lead to disastrous results.
It’s been the slowest up until now.
Can’t link to it, of course, but search for “alistair.pott Graph comparing job losses in US recessions”; There’s a really useful graphic there. Somebody may be able to find an updated version.
Recessions have generally followed a trajectory where there is a sharp drop in the economy, and then a recovery *at higher than normal growth rates*, which continues until the economy has recovered to where it would have been had normal growth rates been uninterrupted. A dip superimposed on gradual growth.
But the recessions and recoveries since the 1980’s have NOT followed this trajectory. Rather, there appears to have been some sort of change in the US economy, and instead of a fast rebound to pre-recession economics, the economy just hit bottom, and then resumes growing from there. These recessions, unlike the 1980 and prior ones, represented actual sustained loss of economic growth, never recovered. A downward staircase superimposed on that gradual growth.
Until now, “the great recession” hasn’t HAD a recovery. We just fell over a cliff, and then picked ourselves up at the bottom, and started rebuilding.
I’m not sure the lessons of 1981 and prior recessions are really applicable to the new sort.