Israel Sees Weakening Covid Vaccination Immunity that US Will See in Months

Israel is being closely watched now because it was one of the first countries out of the gate with vaccinations in December 2020 and got more people vaccinated more quickly.

Israel is seeing weaker immunity for people with earlier vaccinations.

Weakening immunity may be beginning to show in Israelis vaccinated in early winter. A preprint published last month by physician Tal Patalon and colleagues at KSM, the research arm of MHS, found that protection from COVID-19 infection during June and July dropped in proportion to the length of time since an individual was vaccinated. People vaccinated in January had a 2.26 times greater risk for a breakthrough infection than those vaccinated in April.

Israel has among the world’s highest levels of vaccination for COVID-19, with 78% of those 12 and older fully vaccinated, the vast majority with the Pfizer vaccine. They are now logging one of the world’s highest infection rates, with nearly 650 new cases daily per million people. More than half are in fully vaccinated people, underscoring the extraordinary transmissibility of the Delta variant and stoking concerns that the benefits of vaccination ebb over time.

Israel has turned to booster shots, starting on 30 July with people 60 and older and, last Friday, expanding to people 50 and older. As of Monday, nearly 1 million Israelis had received a third dose, according to the Ministry of Health. Israel has 9.3 million people. They have given 12% booster shots and there is still surging delta COVID cases.

30 thoughts on “Israel Sees Weakening Covid Vaccination Immunity that US Will See in Months”

  1. It doesn't have to stop all infections. All it does have to do is inhibit it enough. The virus isn't magical. It needs an infected person to be in an poorly ventilated enclosed area with others for a long enough period for the others to breathe in enough viral particles to cause an infection. This shouldn't happen but people can't stay home during a pandemic. Every little bit you do to inhibit the virus helps. Get vaccinated, wear a mask, wear your glasses or an eye shield, wash your hands, stay home, order out.

  2. Again, please look at facts from reliable sources from UK:

    Look at the last two reports (20 & 21), now that its know that their are many break through infections, detection of positive cases in vaccinated is about 60% of total detected cases in the last month, which is near the fully vaccination rate in UK. Also, hospital admission percentagewise is the same between vaxed and unvaxed. This is a strong indication, that this vaccine does not protect against severe desease, which is stated by the vaccine companies as well by the way. Please, start looking at hard data and do not fuel missinformation, which is unintentionally done even by people in science and medicine.

  3. I'd have to compare those numbers with before the pandemic; Snapshots don't tell you anything without a before to contrast with the after.

  4. It was the previous administration that pushed the vaccines through, ruthlessly crushing every attempt at bureaucratic slowdowns. About 6 months ago, we had a change of administration. As they say, elections have consequences…

  5. Yeah, but coronavirus common colds are only 4 out of over 200 strains, many people have never had one. So you would in fact have gotten considerable benefit.

  6. Hospitals being overwhelmed was a realistic fear early in the pandemic. Outside rather exceptional circumstances, what actually happened was that hospitals got in financial difficulty due to postponing 'elective' procedures to make room for a rush of covid patients that didn't materialize.

    Remember that hospital ship they sent to NYC, that ended up not being used? And NYC was a real covid hotspot for a while.

    At this point we know that few enough people contracting Covid need ICU treatment, that the ICU being overwhelmed isn't a realistic prospect. (Especially when the vaccines are more effective at preventing severe cases, than at preventing mild cases.) People cite high ICU utilization rates, not understanding that ICUs are managed to keep utilization rates high, because they are expensive per bed.

  7. I'm not going to say that that is unethical per se, just that the most important reason for lock-down and vaccinations is to reduce the ICU load. To have hospitals overwhelmed is to mean that car accidents, heart attacks, elective surgery, etc., treatments to be disallowed/ pushed off is unacceptable to all except the most virulent anarchists. It's nice that we are treating symptomatic people better and reducing numbers and stay-time… but recent peaking seems to be getting close to that level where triage may need to occur -and that is a fundamental failure to any system that dares to call itself a rich state.

  8. My understanding is that while Israel's infection rate for double vaccinated people is high, that the double vaccinated still have 90% protection against severe illness from Covid.

    Prior to receiving the two Moderna vaccinations I was on the FLCCC Ivermectin Prophylaxis Protocol. Once the Delta variant was sweeping my area I resumed the Ivermectin Prophylaxis Protocol. I also take heavy dosage of vit D3.

  9. I think the newer variants are making herd immunity next to impossible.
    It would be nice if we could get some special T-cell boosters that recognize all variants.

  10. Agreed. When is the shot for the delta variant, or even alpha/beta/gamma/delta?
    Get 'em all in one shot. Why not?

  11. If you get double-vaccinated, would you plan on getting the Pfizer first, or the Moderna?
    I May end up doing the same.

    And no, if the vaccines are available, I won't feel guilty for doing it. We don't seem to have a shortage here either. Many places vaccinating people for free. If you want the shot, you can get the shot.
    A lot of people still naturally distrustful of the vaccine, due to who all was involved in making it.

  12. Would the Israel data look the same if the vaccine didn't 'take' for some fraction of people?

    Has there been any study that proved that nearly all those vaccinated really were originally strongly protected, as is assumed when we say the effectiveness is falling off vs Delta variant?

    Especially since it's looking like Pfizer's vaccine – which needed the most careful handling – is the one showing biggest drop-off in protection, supposedly only vs Delta (but how would we know, since Delta is now so dominant)?

    What if Israel's rapid vaccination program cut some corners and used vaccine that had gotten a bit too warm at some point in the handling? So that lots of people didn't get enough mRNA to generate enough spikes to trigger a strong immune reaction…

  13. As stated above, getting the "vaccine" does NOT stop the transmission of the virus. To get the R0 under 1, the drug would have to prevent the infection.

  14. It isn't the end of the world, the vaccine doesn't have to be 100% effective. It has to be effective enough to get the virus "R" factor under 1 so that the virus can go away. It would be helpful if people would just get vaccinated.

    A yearly booster shot wouldn't be a burden to me. I get one for the flu.

  15. Most people have already had multiple colds during their lifetime. So they already have the benefit of that.

  16. Know of more people by today, Friday, than I have fingers, who’ve already gone in for the ‘first’ Moderna shot as a booster, after completing the original regiment back in April or so. A few were also Pfizer recipients. There’s a surplus of vaccinations in my area, I don’t feel any guilt over doing this, and will consider it.

  17. About 6 months ago, we knew that variants were developing and that a booster would be needed. And they announced that development of a booster for variants would have a streamlined development process, not requiring full clinical trials, as long as it's a variant update to an existing vaccine. Much like how the flu shot is treated.

    Well. Shouldn't that be about ready then? Why are we mucking about with a third shot of the same stuff? Type a few new letters into the mRNA sequencer.

  18. If the mRNA load in Phizer shots really is 1/3 of Moderna, that might be relevant, especially if the booster is also the same vaccine type.

  19. Israel is a Pfizer country. Moderna has more efficacy against the Delta Variant, is creates much more antibodies. Developing a variant specific vaccine is a losing game. We need to locate the antigens that work against a broad spectrum of viruses and variants and develop vaccines that activate them. And of course, every country needs to test all entrants at its borders at least three times for fool proof screening to avoid introduction of new variants.

  20. I've been saying ever since the beginning that they should have just mixed up a cocktail of the coronavirus common colds, and used it as a live vaccine.

    It wouldn't have stopped as many people from getting covid as a specific vaccine, but it would have saved a lot of lives through reduced severity.

  21. It's logistically easy, since eventually everyone who doesn't get vaccinated is going to end up immune the hard way, which is just as effective, merely a bit less pleasant.

  22. We will get a population with non naive immune systems one way or another.

    The new variants like delta will ensure that.

    After a significant mass of people have become exposed by vaccinations or by getting sick, the severity and contagiousness will fall again.

    Until another variant emerges some place else, that is, propagates and gets people immune again, and so on and so on.

    It was never a matter of virus eradication. That's impossible. Getting the population exposed without getting sick, that's more feasible. But exposed we will be one way or another.

  23. It seems it's also related to the time gap between first and second doses.

    Israel implemented 3 week periods between the first and second shots, while the UK had 8-12 weeks.

    Seems the UK is seeing much stronger immune responses after several months than Israel, and probably it's due to that.

  24. Not a myth. A logistical impossibility. Unless the latest vacc formulations are going out with every happy meal, SB americano, yankees ticketholder entry, part-monthly grocery purchase, the numbers and variant timing are just not there…

  25. It's all about whether Herd Immunity is an optimistic, fairy-tale myth — and at what level – 70 – 80 – 90%? The US is scraping 50% double-dose with a negligible buy-in for most of the rest… many of the major early-early (Mar/Apr '20) hot-spots (NYC) are disproportionately less affected for cases, and even less for hosps and even less for deaths in this 'wave'…

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