Tesla released the version 10 beta of its full self-driving system just after midnight on Friday. Testers mostly agree that version 10 was a substantial improvement over version 9.2.
Tesla is making and selling about 80,000 cars each month. They produced 44,200 cars in China in August and average about 35,000-40,000 cars from Fremont each month.
GM and Hyundai had to recall every Bolt and Kona that have ever been made. They have not started the $11,000-12000 per car fixes until they have safe batteries. Meanwhile, owners of Bolt and Kona’s are not to park their cars near their homes and have various instructions about charging the cars to prevent spontaneous fires.
The Ford Mach-E is the best-selling non-Tesla, non-recalled car in the USA. In August, 2021 there were 1448 Mach-E sold in the USA and about 5350 sold globally.
Volkswagen is selling the most EVs in Europe and BYD is selling more EVs in China. However, VW and BYD are massively trailing Tesla EV sales globally. This is before Tesla starts production from Berlin and Texas. Berlin will reduce the price of Tesla EVs in Europe by $15,000 to 20,000.
Tesla will have the 4680 battery in volume production in 2022-2023. This and the front and rear casting and structural battery will reduce costs and vehicle weight. Tesla with 900,000+ cars in 2021 is 80% global growth over 2020 without the advantage of the new 4680 batteries and without widespread FSD.
In 2020, Tesla reported a profit of $721 million on about $31.5 billion in sales. Tesla had more profit in Q2 of 2021 than all of 2020.
In Q4 of 2021, Tesla will make about $15-17 billion in sales. In 2024, Tesla will have over 4 million annual car sales. This will be the sales for the entire 2021 in each 3 month quarter.
Tesla will not stop with the increased financial and technological strength they will have in 2024.
They will make the 200+ mile range $25,000 car and then in three years follow up with a $15,000 car. They will then make multiple iterations of $1000-10,000 Tesla bots.
This is why I used the picture of an MMA fighter pummeling an opponent below. Those who think that competitors will be able to make ground from having $150 per kwh batteries to catch up to Tesla’s $100 per kwh batteries are wrong. Tesla will extend its technological leads.
Tesla has exaflop AI computer systems. Which of the car companies have that? Tesla will have better AI technology than Google and Facebook.
Those who saw the artificial general intelligence future or a future of self-driving cars or a future with industrialized orbital, moon, Mars and asteroids should be looking at nearly trillion-dollar Tesla and nearly hundred billion SpaceX to keep pushing for it.
Tesla was already winning and ahead when it was ten times smaller than today. Ford has sold about 50,000 Mach E this year. Tesla is over ten times ahead of that level.
By 2030, Tesla could be making 40 million cars per year and have over 100 million cars on the road. Tesla with 100 million fully autonomous cars will be able to make billions of fully autonomous humanoid robots.
Exponential technology and profits will be captured and centralized. The business titans of the past like Rockefeller did not have the technology.
Written by Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com (Brian has shares of Tesla)
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
34 thoughts on “Tesla and Teslabot Future”
Too many negative externalities… like the destruction of a small city.
Chainsaws? You are thinking way, way too small.
A proper robot fight will have them big enough to be wielding things like this.
What is the theoretical basis that manufacturing is done on a mass limited basis?
Almost all of the mass of a car is large castings and bodywork, with layers of sound proofing and the suspension underneath. But the limits to mass production at this point appear to be batteries and electronics.
I can see the batteries/tonne of product might be the same in a robot and a car, but electronics/tonne would be much higher in a humanoid robot, which might need more processing capability in a 70 kg android than is being used for a 2000 kg vehicle.
Yep. Very likely.
That, and pushing for Tesla bots assisting them for the myriads of things a passably smart roaming bot could do for you while you live, to give people more autonomy and freedom from risk.
Musk seems to have realized that he can't have an army of people catering for other humans' needs and checking every little detail of a Martian base at the same time.
AI and robots would need to catch a lot of the slack. Something like the Japanese dream of having robots caring for the elderly, but for everyone and freeing resources for the base maintenance.
I really hope he succeeds doing it, because that's something more (currently living) people can benefit from in the mid term.
I would assume the plan is to work until you drop.
If someone does that, and decides to give the proceeds and control of the results to Musk, the end will still not be the same as if Musk had done it. But pretty good. If they keep the goods for themselves, Musk will only get some profit on the launch, nothing else. If, however, Musk realizes O'Neill is correct and joins in, he adds to the effort. And stays relevant.
Maybe, those paying to go could be more on the gray hair side. Those willing and able to go and work there would be rather young, though. Both would be needed to make a community.
Which makes me think: what's the support plan for old age's twilight years?
In ages past, colonists counted on family support and just dying quickly once it was their turn. An infarction, a stroke, an infection and the lights went out.
Nowadays medicine can keep you on artificial life support for a long while.
I presume Martians would be rather liberal about voluntarily choosing your life's end and against therapeutic excess.
We are certainly waiting for SENS therapies to ramp up, but they may or they may not do so.
Right. Because SpaceX rockets can't be bought and used for something else than going to Mars.
Yes. Google wants to sell ads, Tesla wants to make robots that can roam and exist in the real world. If it's on 4 wheels or 2 legs is an implementation detail.
yes fixed. $100 per kwh.
Yes, I'd like to see a Tesla Bot fight a Boston Dynamic Atlas robot in a cage match with chainsaws.
Might be that expensive for some of the companies, once you factor in recalling 100% of the cars they've manufactured.
"A. Be in a position to go to Mars, permanently (only qualified despite age because he owns the company)"
Actually, isn't part of the plan for a lot of the early colonists to be retirees? Can pay their way, loads of experience to bring to the job, eager to accomplish something big before they die, and not so many man years lost if a rocket burns up on reentry… Basically, high quality, expendable colonists. I expect at least the first couple of waves of colonists will be heavy on older people.
You have hit the magic factor, robots. Musk is all about humans to Mars. Bezos is all about robots to Space. Bezos wins two ways just there. There will be more humans servicing robots in Space than there will be on Mars. There already are. There has been for years.
He could also be making profound errors in fundamental assumptions. Mars rather than O'Neill? That is dead wrong. All batteries, no H2 fuel cells or burning H2? Even for trucks? Even for grid storage? Bezos far ahead in robots and AI, particularly rocket landing. May have mis-read, but remember seeing that Amazon is spending $25 B per year on R&D.
Well, my strategy for decades was to *feign* an interest in Mars, but recommend at least O2 if not more such as H2O (thus H2) or even CH4 or even fuel tanks and perhaps radiation shielding from the Moon, for Mars. These ideas still hold, particularly for more than one Mars mission. Musk 10x refueling launches from Earth launch for Mars shots is perhaps too stupid to ignore. The easy cheap launch means easy cheap Moon resources, duh!
But wait! You can also argue that any sustainable Mars civilization will need and certainly want an orbital ISMRU facility, a Mars O'Neill Module, MOM. Something one could assemble in LEO (or L5, etc) and then tow to Mars already working, needing only Phobos material for shielding to finish. A place to do things such as make Solar Power Sats, heavy industry, micr0g as yet undiscovered stuff, like Earth will be/is doing long before Mars. In O'Neill Space. For Mars.
Dan, Elon is too invested in the Mars folly, no turning back for him.
"Tesla has exaflop AI computer systems. Which of the car companies have that? Tesla will have better AI technology than Google and Facebook"
Google also has exaflop AI computer systems with specialized chips (TPUs). Tesla has a very different goal for its AI research.
Musk is also 50, has half a dozen companies and works 100-hour weeks at times. In 2030, he'll be pushing 60 and will either A. Be in a position to go to Mars, permanently (only qualified despite age because he owns the company), B. burned out & slowing down C. strangely immune to most ravages of age, with help of his life-extension genius friends D. brought down by politically favored/repeatedly bailed out old-iron car companies, via unfair regulations: https://www.msn.com/en-us/autos/news/elon-musk-is-angry-about-a-new-bill-that-includes-a-244500-tax-incentive-for-electric-vehicles-built-by-companies-with-unions/ar-AAOogwn?ocid=uxbndlbing, E. An unforeseen mistake/loss of life/disaster in one or more of his companies, F. some combination of the above.
Also, there is a ton of competition, and shrinking margins, the lower in price Tesla tries to compete. Microcars are being unfairly prevented from entering the American market when they are all over China and Europe already. This won't last.
Key man risk with Musk is exponentially higher than with poor Steve Jobs, and look how young he was when he passed. What will happen to Musk's companies without him?
I believe that Elon Musk has done much good, but will he still be so generally good when he has so much wealth and power?
All Musk has to do to completely own the future is understand O'Neill "The High Frontier" and cover all the H end of things, not just batteries. Like Bezos.
"a future with industrialized orbital, moon, Mars and asteroids should be
looking at nearly trillion-dollar Tesla and nearly hundred billion
SpaceX to keep pushing for it." Indeed. Now, if Musk would join us in the orbital and asteroid part. The O'Neill part. The BIG part. Tiny Mars, too bad.
It’s reasonable that if Tesla X GFs can make 40 million vehicles they can make a similar mass of humanoid robots – which is over a billion of them.
I think global markets may well absorb 40 million fully self driving Tesla vehicles and a billion Tesla humanoid robots a year in the 2030’s.
There are 2 billion human driven ICEvehicles to replace. There is an effectively unlimited demand for drop in human worker replacement robots that are cheap to mass produce.
The less bold alternative for Tesla to use it’s NN HW/SW in new domains beyond vehicles is working vehicle robots. There are dozens of working vehicle types that Tesla’s system could make autonomous. Tractors, Forklifts, Garbage Trucks, Combines, Snow Plows, Lawn mowers etc. If Tesla itself goes straight for humanoid robots, they might license their technology to makers of each of working vehicle robots.
Guess Brian isn't in the early access fleet? I would have thought he might have access but I guess not?
If not, you know he'll hit that beta button when it pops up for general beta.
Pretty sure he just added an extra 0 – should be $100 per kwh for Tesla?
Here is a good review of FSD 10 by unbiased tester. Honest assessment including 'edge' cases in San Jose downtown:
[FSD Beta 10] San Jose Downtown Stress Test – YouTube
I would look at the graph in the article again. Tesla car sales are growing exponentially.
Anyone had a chance to test FSD 10?
Anyone with such a need can have one up and running within a few minutes.
Nothing you've stated is a barrier to anything.
63.8 million cars sold globally in 2020
"By 2030, Tesla could be making 40 million cars per year" Lots of things are possible, but not all things are equally likely. Tesla could be long defunct by 2030.
Car companies sell cars
Nobody making cars has $1000/kwhr batteries.
The VW Aero is a full size sedan, not a model 3 rival. On sale in Europe in 2023.
Wake me up when I can actually buy one…
" Those who think that competitors will be able to make ground from having $150 per kwh batteries to catch up to Tesla’s $1000 per kwh batteries are wrong. "
Did you maybe get that one backwards?
No one is standing still, the competition is pilin up while buyers start realizing Tesla shortcomings.
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