Reports of Russian Collapse In and Around Kherson

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There are various reports of continuing Ukrainian advances in Kherson. Russia seems to have had to fall back another 20 kilometers in Kherson. Getting pushed into small pockets. Ukraine continues to have upper hand with recon, information and destroying supplies, logistics and ammo. It is flat terrain in Kherson on the north side of the Dnipro. No places to setup significant defensive lines.

Retired Australian Army Major General, Mick Ryan, has these observations.

1. The Ukrainians had a broad overall operational design featuring potential operations in the south, north east – and probably elsewhere. However, launching these was not only based on time, but also about when opportunities presented themselves.

2. The Ukrainians clearly had both dedicated and situational reserves that they had allocated for planned offensives – and for exploiting opportunities. Creating these required a good appreciation of risk, deception, operational security and logistic stockpiling.

3. the Ukrainians have fought a superior recon battle. A senior military officer, during our Kyiv visit, confirmed the Russians were poor at tactical recon. This is an essential part of preventing surprise and recognizing enemy weaknesses to exploit.

30 thoughts on “Reports of Russian Collapse In and Around Kherson”

  1. My information’s about what was happening in the offensive:
    1) The Ukraine’s uses Starlink to coordinate small groups of soldiers to infiltrate, in mass, the first lines and then threat the artillery behind.
    2) The Artillery is forced to fall back and the Russian infantry lose their protection and must follow.

    These are the pros.
    The contros are pretty serious:

    1) it worked with a 10:1 infantry superiority and taking a lot of losses by the Ukrainians. The Russians are fighting with very few soldiers and using a lot of artillery (like 10x compared to the Ukrainians)

    2) The infantry of local republics was not yet integrated with the Russian Army and now they can only move under orders because their artillery really shoot everything detected.
    This mean the smaller force can not afford losses where the biggest one can and must.

    3) Starlink is geofencing the ground units, so when the units advance too fast, the terminals stop working as they are considered in “Russia territory”. With the loss of connection to the central command (heavy master-slave design) the units are blind and risk to be easily destroyed if they move

    4) The new units mobilized will be used to screen the artillery and new offensives.

    5) The communication system of the Russian is more P2P and can work even if the SHTF, maybe less efficiently, but it would work. The system used by the Ukrainians is master-slave and if SHTF they are pretty F/U

  2. This might be a fake quote but it fits well.

    “Never fight with Russian. On your every stratagem they answer unpredictable stupidity.”
    Bissmark

  3. Some of the comments here are really scary. There is no such thing as a limited nuclear exchange. It will be the end of the world as we know it.

    • That’s ok. In 200 years humans are going to have weapons that can kill all of humanity even more directly and efficiently. And we’ll still need to stand up to people like Putin then as well.

      If you won’t accept that, then you’re part of the jackboot.

  4. Grant did the same sort of thing in his “march to the sea.” Pick several potential targets, and recon them closely. If the defenders spread out to cover all of them, great, you’ll can any one of them with more than they can handle. And if they concentrate at one? Postpone that one and take out the others. Kind of difficult to defend a broad area against a superior force with superior recon.

    And, of course, as they fall back they get more concentrated, which in olden times would have made them tougher. Now it just makes them a target.

  5. It would be more accurate to write “Ukraine, as a result of its’ NATO support continues to have upper hand with recon, information and destroying supplies, logistics and ammo.”

    Make no mistake. The US is in proxy war with Russia, and the results may be catastrophic
    for the entire planet. Don’t worry about climate change, worry about nuclear war!

    Here’s an idea. If expansion of NATO is so great, invite Russia into the alliance. That should take care of everything.

  6. This is only a elastic defence strategy, not a collapse. Russia common strategy is trading space for time. They are waiting for moblised force to be deployed.

    • Thanks for the tip, I’ll pass it on to the relevant parties. They’ll need to know what Russia’s plans are if they stand any hope of driving them out of their country.

      You’re a real friend to Ukraine.

      xd

    • Not even Russia’s television propagandists are willing to say a lie as brazen as yours. Russia is losing badly at the current moment and it isn’t clear if they have the ability to change how they fight.

        • “let’s wait untill spring and see”

          Russia will be lucky to make it till spring. Russia isn’t equipped to fight in winter, Russian morale is horrible and Russian conscripts are as likely to immediately surrender as they are to immediately die.

          Yes lets absolutely “wait untill spring”. You don’t seem to appreciate what six months of precision shelling and precision rocket hits will do to Russian troops.

  7. After seeing 14000 Donbass Russian speakers killed by Ukrainians, who can blame the Russians for trying trying to put an end to it?

    Our insane leaders should stay out of it.

    • “14000 Donbass Russian speakers”
      You’ve fallen for a Russian lie, the 14,000 includes those killed on the Malaysian airlines flight, all the Ukraine speakers killed by the separatists and the soldiers on both sides.

  8. UAF has been very successful in encircling groups of russian forces in Kherson up until now, but the Dnipro river is a natural barrier/line that will encumber any further advances south, especially since UAF destroyed so many bridges (which is why the russians are getting routed), thus forcing the use of new pontoon bridges/ferries for any moves farther south. How well they set up and protect their bridging will determine any further success as they push into Zaporizhzhya.

    • Dnipro freezes up in winter time. You can drive across it. Does Russia have winter clothing for their troops or are they determined to reproduce every failure of Nazi Germany’s invasion of Russia?

      • allegedly 1.5 million russian winter uniforms that should have been warehoused are unaccounted for (missing) so…

  9. I doubt he’ll endanger russia proper with fallout plume, so a per windy.com no nuking at least for a week 😉

    • I kind of doubt Russia can afford to nuke anything since it’ll result in their few remaining “friends” on the globe turning their backs on them and fully isolating them.

      They’re gradually becoming North Korea before our eyes.

  10. Is no one else worried that Russia is trying to pull a rope-a-dope manuver; rapidly retreating to attempt to get Ukraining forces to concerntrate and then take a bunch of them out all at once with a tactical nuke?

    The more desperate Putin gets, the more likely he is to resort to nukes. I would take his threats seriously. I am not saying anyone should back off either. I am just saying this potentiality should be in everyone’s calculus on this matter.

    • He’d have to also nuke the territories he supposedly annexed. Not exactly a good way to endear the new local population to you.

      • They were already very endeared by the guns pointed at them during the past annexation referendum.

        They massively voted in favor, only Kim Jong Un gets better voter preferences. 😁

    • If Putin uses any nukes he’s been warned there will be immediate retaliation. That means NATO will take out Russia, and without China, Russia hasn’t the power to make such a move. Putin is losing his war, but he know# if he uses nukes, he’ll lose his life. And under it all he’s a coward.

      • This isn’t being mentioned enough. Putin was a mid-level KGB bureaucrat, and then a mafia crime boss running a whole country. But he’s the sort to get others to do his dirty work. He’s never been to war or even served in the military. He’s too attached to his own skin to visit frontline troops as Mr. Zelensky often does. He’s so paranoid, of covid-19 and assassination attempts, that he sits 40 meters away from everyone else across those ridiculous tables that have become a running joke. If he was any further away from other people they’d have to shout through megaphones to hear each other.

        Vladimir Putin may be many things – brave certainly isn’t one of them. The last thing he wants is to die in glorious battle with his foes. He wants other people to die fighting his foes while he sits safe in Moscow enjoying the perks of money and power. Prepare just in case, yes. But we shouldn’t be taking his nuclear bluster so seriously. In order to win Ukraine has to … well, win. We can’t be worried about Putin’s tender feelings and how that might hurt them.

      • Take out Russia?
        Are you completely nuts … Russia and NATO all out war equals end of life as we know it you can NOT win a nuclear war
        FROM A 2019 SCIENTIFIC STUDY

        Full scale nuclear war between Russia and USA.

        Russia-US nuclear war scenario, where Russia would target 2,200 weapons on Western countries and the US would target 2,200 weapons on Russia. In total, therefore, 4,400 warheads detonate, equivalent to roughly half the current inventories held each by Russia and the US.
        The devastation causes so much smoke that only 30-40 percent of sunlight reaches the Earth’s surface for the subsequent six months.

        A massive drop in temperature follows, with the weather staying below freezing throughout the subsequent Northern Hemisphere summer. In Iowa, for example, the model shows temperatures staying below 0°C for two years straight. There is no growing season. This is a true nuclear winter.

        Nor is it just a short blip. Temperatures still drop below freezing in summer for several years thereafter, and global precipitation falls by half by years three and four. It takes over a decade for anything like climatic normality to return to the planet.

        By this time, most of Earth’s human population will be long dead. The world’s food production would crash by more than 90 percent, causing global famine that would kill billions by starvation. In most countries less than a quarter of the population survives by the end of year two in this scenario. Global fish stocks are decimated and the ozone layer collapses.

        The models are eerily specific. In the 4,400 warhead/150 Tg soot nuclear war scenario, averaged over the subsequent five years, China sees a reduction in food calories of 97.2 percent, France by 97.5 percent, Russia by 99.7 percent, the UK by 99.5 percent and the US by 98.9 percent. In all these countries, virtually everyone who survived the initial blasts would subsequently starve

    • Russia has been leaving behind enormous amounts of valuable equipment, so no, it isn’t a rope-a-dope.

      • Yes, it’s more like dope-a-dope. Note to any Russian conscripts, have a square piece of white cloth to wave at the Ukrainians.

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