Top 1% Futurist Forecaster on Metaculus

Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture, is ranked 47th all time on the public prediction website -Metaculus and is ranked 35th for the past 12 months. Brian has a brier score of 0.088. Lower brier scores are more accurate. If predictions were random results and someone had 50% confidence of 50% results then the brier score would be 0.25.

The Metaculus algorithm has a brier score of 0.088 and the Metaculus community has a brier score of 0.093.

As an individual forecaster I, Brian Wang, am beating the collective forecasting capability of the Metaculus group and I am matching the Metaculus algorithm.

There are about 5000 active Metaculus forecasters. Therefore, Brian Wang is in the top 1% of public futurist predictors. 65% of my predictions on the site are totally accurate and were made with very high 98-100% confidence. Over 90% of the predictions were right with fairly high or with moderate confidence.

8 thoughts on “Top 1% Futurist Forecaster on Metaculus”

  1. Good job Brian. Thanks for your efforts.

    Any chance on an article on fusion and timescales? Do you even think commercial electricity production will ever be possible?

  2. Let the algorithms join the algorithm train the algorithms?
    How about Google LaMDA or ChatGPT having prediction scores?
    The fruits of research and confronting with limitations and finiteness is knowledge about the probabilities of possibilities?

    What are the wisest words and sentences staying in Your mind?
    Best wishes

  3. Brian, Congratulations! I visit your website at least once a day for my daily dose of tech inspiration. Sharing your optimistic outlook on the future has helped me stay positive about our collective futures. You are definitely No 1 in my opinion. People can feel carried helplessly on a wave of technological change, this website help us stear and navigate that future for ourselves. Thank you 😊.

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