SpaceX and China were roughly tied in 2022 with 61 and 62 orbital launches but SpaceX had more payload. Combined SpaceX and China were 80% of orbital launches in 2022. SpaceX is on pace to double its launches in 2023. Elon indicates that SpaceX should deliver 80% of all of the payloads in 2023. This is even without the Super Heavy Starship getting into operation.
Super Heavy Starship will eventually have more frequent launches and each launch will have five to ten times the payload.
SpaceX will have built five complete Super-heavy Starships by the end of 2023. If those were flying every week in 2024, then that would be 250 launches with five to seven times the payload. This would mean about 15 times the payload versus 2023.
SpaceX has a Raptor engine factory that can scale to 4000 engines per year. This would be enough for one hundred Super-Heavy Starships per year. This could mean 10,000 launches per year with 10 times the payload in each launch. This would be one thousand times the 2023 payload launch capacity. SpaceX would reach 99.99% of payloads with a fleet of 100+ Super Heavy Starships. This seems to be certain by 2026.
SpaceX’s three main competitors in Russia, Europe, and the United States have launched three rockets in 2023. SpaceX just launched three missions in three days.
Provided there is no serious launch anomaly, SpaceX will deliver 80% of Earth’s payload to orbit this year.
Not counting Starship.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) March 20, 2023
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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How long until Starship heavy is used to mine asteroids?
Humans create a lot of fiction too. Some on purpose, and some not…Well, I guess that’s a subject for another day.
If this is true then there is going to be a boom in Earths orbit. Tourism and hospitality, energy, manufacturing, orbital defense platforms and hundreds of thousands of communication satellites.
I am sceptical. There are a lot of small startups, which will also soon ramp up, there will be more of them in near future. As tech progresses, there will be easier to start such startup, it won’t take as much time to get to Starship level as it takes now.
More advanced civilizations(also new companies in more advanced world) are and will be developing faster.
SpaceX will probably be big player but I doubt in 99% domination. When we will finally see the launch? I remember March as a latest date. If we won’t see it in March I think these launch dates should not be reported anymore. It’s pointless. A bit frustrating.
Seeing how fast AI is progressing, we will probably have AGI/ASI faster than reliably working Starship and with AGI, we could develop something 10 -1000x more advanced than Starship and do it wayy faster than our current pace of progress with such projects. I believe, AGI will disrupt all sectors and companies, including space companies like SpaceX
The latest batch of AIs still struggle with Moravec’s paradox: they automate mental work easily but still can’t perform most physical work.
SDCs are a good advance into making robots exist in the real, physical world, but overall we are far from full human replacement.
Yeah, this blog talks about humanoid robots going big often, but at least for me, seeing is believing.
Until we see robots doing actual inroads into blue collar physical work, I won’t believe we can quickly revolutionize space access and settlement.
So rockets it is, and SpaceX still is the biggest player in town.
I think the question is what is the biggest obstacle or limiting factor? Is the biggest problem robot’s hardware or the software? My guess would be mostly software. Real full self driving has proved way more difficult than anticipated. Boston dynamics robot is very agile and fast if you look at the videos. Sanctuary AI robot was very slow.
I think that if humanoid shaped robot is trained on narrow task with good image recognition and machine learning you don’t need real general artificial intelligence.
Of course a lot of blue collar work is complex and it depends how machine learning and later AI will develop. We are still far away, but that can change if tech wont plateau in that area.
“I think that if humanoid shaped robot is trained on narrow task with good image recognition and machine learning you don’t need real general artificial intelligence.”
Yeah, essentially all factory work could be done by a smart insect, if the system were fully characterized. Where humans are necessary is in keeping systems running that AREN’T fully characterized. We’re fantastic exception handlers.
But I am convinced we will manage to close the circle and completely automate factories within a few decades.
The problem with the current AI’s is that they don’t generate mental work. They generate output that could be mental work, and while some of it is true, some of it is fiction. And the AI itself is incapable of distinguishing. Or, as the companies say, the model sometimes hallucinates.
That means basically none of its output can be used as is, it has to be extensively reviewed by a suspicious human.
As an idea generator it’s probably great, and if all you want is fiction, you’ve got a great source of TV scripts. But you wouldn’t dare put this AI in direct charge of anything.
And none will have had the opportunity like space x. There was only 1 government grant given. Many applied only 1 got it. None will make the impact of space x you’re trippin. And again wrong on ai. Nurallink (another musk adventure) aims to reduce ai impact on human minds and make it a symbiotic relationship with humans firmly in command. AI is already in ever single on of his cars. And the government ok’d it, and somehow, according to you, it’s a stretch. Ai controls your phone, your google searches, and many other aspects of your life already. What incredibly naive statements.
You’re replying to me? Because if yes, your answer doesn’t make sense to me.
“AI is already in ever single on of his cars. And the government ok’d it, and somehow, according to you, it’s a stretch”
Point of my answer was and it is quite clear that AI is the future, to be more precise more advanced AI that we have now. I am talking about AGI/ASI.
I said that it will disrupt everything, current version is the worst, most primitive it will ever be.
I know about everything you pointed out, I am following field closely, and you are answering like I was some kind of AI sceptic.
It’s clear from my message, that I am believer. Once again, your answer is weird to me, illogical.